Which do you think is more true?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

See poll

[Sestak]

Depends heavily on who "people" are.

[twenty42]

Underrating.

Trump's odds of reelection are going to be 50/50 until at least 2019, because we simply don't have enough information about the 2020 election yet. Anybody who says Trump is a longshot or a no-shot for reelection is underrating his chances, whereas anybody who says Trump is a favorite or a shoo-in for reelection is overrating his chances. Since I've seen much, much more of the former since he took office, I'm going with Option 2.

[The Other Castro]

Overall I think people are appropriately rating his chances.

[IceSpear]

Depends heavily on who "people" are.

Yeah, it's hard to say. You've got Bannon, the alt-right, the 4chan crowd etc. that insist he will not only win re-election but win in a massive landslide, then you've got the liberals being unwilling to fathom even the possibility of Americans electing him again (even though they already did once, lol.)

In reality, with it being so early, it's probably around 50/50. A lot can change in 3 years. Hell, a lot can change in 3 weeks, just look at October 2016.

Then again, that's for a generic R vs. D race. The odds might be somewhat lower for Trump in particular being re-elected due to the Mueller pendulum hanging over his head.

[Lechasseur]

Underrating.

Trump's odds of reelection are going to be 50/50 until at least 2019, because we simply don't have enough information about the 2020 election yet. Anybody who says Trump is a longshot or a no-shot for reelection is underrating his chances, whereas anybody who says Trump is a favorite or a shoo-in for reelection is overrating his chances. Since I've seen much, much more of the former since he took office, I'm going with Option 2.

This, unless something really bad happens between now and 2019

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

due to the Mueller pendulum hanging over his head.

See? What did I say? This "Russian investigation" is nothing more than an attempt to damage Trump/retaliate against losing.

No one cares about it though. And the funny thing is? The reason no one cares about it is because of what Obama said in 2012 to Mitt Romney: thinking Russia as the big bad is soooo 1980s.

[Dr. MB]

Depends heavily on who "people" are.

[AN63093]

Depends heavily on who "people" are.

This.

I mean, you got people like ahugecat on here, who insist that Trump is a 100% lock, simply by virtue of the fact that he defied expectations once, so obviously it will happen again.

But then again, you have many liberal pundits and writers making, more or less, the exact same mistakes as in '16 (e.g., no one will vote for Trump, he's disliked, his approvals are too low, no one would ever vote for such a buffoon, etc etc), which betrays the fact that such writers are thinking emotionally, not rationally, and just letting their personal dislike of Trump color their judgment.

Icespear has the best post in the thread so far.  This far out, it's probably 50/50 or close to it.

That being said, I do think there's a pretty substantial chance that the Dems win the PV, even if Trump wins again.  I'd put their chances at winning the PV at maybe higher than 50%.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Underrated obviously.

[Fuzzy Bear]

For 2020, I think folks are underrating Trump's chances.  This isn't to say he will be re-elected, but folks seem to think he'd go down to defeat.  And he well might if the election were held today, but it isn't going to be held today.

For all the chaos going on, for all the tweets and rants, the economy is strong, unemployment is down and the stock market is way up.  Yes, Obama laid the groundwork for this, but Trump, the incumbent is going to get the credit.  If Trump were put up for a special election in 3 months, he'd probably win.  The economy may well not be rosy in 2020, and, if not, Trump will likely not have a reservoir of good will to see him through.  Business and Economics are something Trump DOES know something about, and I suspect he will manage the situation well enough to get re-elected, but not all is in his control. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

I am certain he will lose the popular vote again, but the EC is another story obviously.

I wonder how he will manage to cobble together a winning coalition in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida running against someone who hopefully isn't as scandal-laden and unpopular as his 2016 opponent. Also he has a record to defend and many who brushed off the warnings of his unpreparedness from the 2016 Democratic nominee have seen the predictions more or less come to fruition. The majority of the people who voted in these states did not vote for him. Let's see if lightning can strike twice.

[IceSpear]

I am certain he will lose the popular vote again, but the EC is another story obviously.

I wonder how he will manage to cobble together a winning coalition in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida running against someone who hopefully isn't as scandal-laden and unpopular as his 2016 opponent. Also he has a record to defend and many who brushed off the warnings of his unpreparedness from the 2016 Democratic nominee have seen the predictions more or less come to fruition. The majority of the people who voted in these states did not vote for him. Let's see if lightning can strike twice.

Regardless of who the Democrats nominate, the media and Republicans will ensure they are "unpopular and scandal-laden" by election day. Mark my words.

They even managed to successfully demonize milquetoast candidates who were as inoffensive as humanly possible like Gore and Kerry.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I am certain he will lose the popular vote again, but the EC is another story obviously.

I wonder how he will manage to cobble together a winning coalition in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida running against someone who hopefully isn't as scandal-laden and unpopular as his 2016 opponent. Also he has a record to defend and many who brushed off the warnings of his unpreparedness from the 2016 Democratic nominee have seen the predictions more or less come to fruition. The majority of the people who voted in these states did not vote for him. Let's see if lightning can strike twice.

Regardless of who the Democrats nominate, the media and Republicans will ensure they are "unpopular and scandal-laden" by election day. Mark my words.

They even managed to successfully demonize milquetoast candidates who were as inoffensive as humanly possible like Gore and Kerry.

Re: Gore and Kerry that seemed like typical hyper-partisan unpopularity that will swarm any nominee.

Democrats would have to work pretty damn hard to nominate a candidate as polarizing and unpopular as their last one. She had many people that were supposed to be a part of her coalition that were literally disgusted and repulsed by her but voted for her to stop Trump. I do not see anyone that unpopular being able to bulldoze their way through the primaries again.  

[Pericles]

due to the Mueller pendulum hanging over his head.

See? What did I say? This "Russian investigation" is nothing more than an attempt to damage Trump/retaliate against losing.

No one cares about it though. And the funny thing is? The reason no one cares about it is because of what Obama said in 2012 to Mitt Romney: thinking Russia as the big bad is soooo 1980s.

You really are thick. The Russia investigation is about investigating the Russian interference in the 2016 election and possible crimes committed by the Trump campaign to clear this matter up. If Trump is exonerated, great! If not, then the truth will be known and those responsible will be punished appropriately, because it is fundamentally bad for America, not just the Democratic Party, and in future if repeated it could be bad for the Republican Party. In that case, Trump being damaged politically is an unavoidable side-effect.

[pbrower2a]

We understate not so much how likely Donald Trump would win a free and competitive election, as he is that awful, but we overstate the likelihood that we will have a free and competitive election in 2020. Our President is already showing signs of being a despot, and the Republican Party might stop at nothing to ensure that elections go their way.