Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie....

[Skill and Chance]

Cruz would have pulled a Reverse Hillary, if anything. He would definitely have done better in the national PV and maybe even won it, but there's no way he would've picked up PA, MI & WI. Overall turnout would have been much lower; even though Cruz wouldn't have carried all of those blue-collar first-time and/or white working class Dems, he would have made them up by retaining support in suburbia. Clinton, on the other hand, would've had the same problems she had with the base and that first-time Latino voter turnout and support would've been a lot weaker due to it not being Trump on the ballot.

His margins would have been much better than Trump's in most suburban areas and that would have led to Obama '12-like margins for him in states like GA and TX. Of course, this would mean that it would have been Cruz - and not Hillary - whose voters were more poorly distributed for the EC.

Clinton 47.7% 279
Cruz 48.8% 259

This seems right, although I do think a Cruz breakthrough in Colorado or (less likely) Virginia is possible due to supercharged Evangelical turnout at almost a 90/10 margin for Cruz.

[MT Treasurer]

^Why do you think WI would have been unwinnable for him?

IMO Cruz would have won IA, OH, WI, ME-02 (yeah) and probably FL as well (though the latter could have flipped and given Clinton the win). PA would have been very close, but I think Clinton barely wins it. So my guess is Cruz barely wins in the EC.

He would have lost CO, NV, MI and VA, though.  

[Pericles]

He polled quite well in Colorado and could have won it with more college-educated whites and Hispanics than Trump got.

[krazen1211]

Gillespie has the benefit of learning how to win from President Trump's thrashing of Crooked Hillary. Cruz would not have made the correct moves without this hindsight.

[Pericles]

Cruz win scenario

Ted Cruz/John Kasich-Republican: 269 EV 48.02%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 269 EV 47.38%

[Pericles]

Clinton win scenario

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 314 EV 49.23
Ted Cruz/John Kasich-Republican: 224 EV 46.07%

[Pericles]

Cruz win scenario

Ted Cruz/John Kasich-Republican: 269 EV 48.02%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 269 EV 47.38%

Why does he win CO but lose WI?

Colorado was where he polled better and it was the tipping-point state in 2012. Cruz does better with college-educated whites and Hispanics in this scenario to take Colorado but worse with WWC voters and doesn't have Trump's Midwest surge.

[Pericles]

^While he might have underperformed Trump in some of the rural areas, I think he would have made up for it in the WOW counties. Plus, there were polls showing him very competitive in WI. I doubt Cruz does THAT much better in the Denver suburbs or with Hispanics (I'd say he loses the state by 2-3 points), but obviously we'll never find out.  

He was competitive in WI but more so in CO. Don't think that just because he loses a state he isn't competitive there. Cruz makes up Trump's margin in CO to get it by less than 1% while WI goes for Clinton narrowly, maybe 2% margin.

[uti2]

Gillespie calls NoVA 'enemy territory' - if it couldn't be more clear that he's running a Cruz-style campaign with 'New York Values'-like labeling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sC0GFSEnqs