Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie.... (user search)
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  Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie.... (search mode)
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Author Topic: Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie....  (Read 2980 times)
uti2
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Posts: 1,495


« on: October 17, 2017, 12:57:15 PM »

Gillespie is running an eerily similar campaign to that of Cruz. Unlike the original GOP post-mortem urban pandering strategy, Gillespie seems to have been spooked enough by Stewart to have shifted to embrace more of a Ted-Cruz type of strategy. The attempt is to keep Stewart voters in-line. Donor-friendly, but with sprinkles of red meat.

Compare:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-SC1uUiT9s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0UiqMDbpAw

Ted Cruz wouldn't need to do that much to unite the establishment, if he simply put Jeb or Romney as VP, that would have secured the necessary establishment support for his campaign.
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uti2
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Posts: 1,495


« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2017, 01:19:21 PM »

No. Cruz wouldn't have motivated disaffected voters like Trump did, would have no appeal to the working class, and may have scared progressives who protest-voted into Hillary's column due to his opposition to gay rights.

People need to keep in mind that Cruz was somewhat of a different candidate prior to Trump's entry. He had previously written an op-ed with Paul Ryan backing the TPP, he was more ambiguous on immigration than the other candidates and had room to maneuver depending upon which way the wind was blowing. If Breitbart & Co. wanted him to shift gears in their direction on that front, he may have listened to them.

Cruz, to his credit, was able to defang Huckabee/Santorum who wanted gay marriage outlawed nationally, Cruz had more of a 'state's rights' view on the issue. Cruz would've been positioned slightly differently w/o Trump, he would've been more of a Rand Paul-lite candidate (that was his original plan until Trump came along).

So, imagine a Trumpless race, w/o Trump's free media, Jeb and his money are the main factor, they are successful in keeping potential competitors at bay all the way to the convention, ensuring that no one gets to 1237. Cruz uses his delegate shenanigans to launch a coup at the convention and Jeb relents in exchange for the VP slot.
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uti2
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Posts: 1,495


« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2017, 12:38:57 PM »

Ironically Cruz could have won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. I still think Hillary probably would have lost any way and Cruz would have won.

I don't think so. Cruz would have lost pretty badly in both the popular vote and electoral college.

Something like 51-46, and he'd terrible in the electoral college. He may reach Romney's 206 and win Maine's 2nd CD.

Why? Cruz is hated by many, but he doesn't have the enthusiasm Trump has. Trump also had a lot of fight.

The reason Sessions endorsed Trump over Cruz was because Sessions felt Trump could win the rust belt, and that's where the 2016 election was going to be decided (which ended up being true). Cruz had no chance to win any of those states.

If you go by 'enthusiasm', none of the republican candidates had any serious enthusiasm behind them besides Trump and then Cruz.

Who is Cruz supposedly hated by? The 'Establishment', Cruz could get those votes in line by simply picking an Establishment GOPer like Jeb or Romney as VP, which would've especially worked out in the context of a contested convention.
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uti2
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Posts: 1,495


« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2017, 02:15:51 PM »

Ironically Cruz could have won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. I still think Hillary probably would have lost any way and Cruz would have won.

I don't think so. Cruz would have lost pretty badly in both the popular vote and electoral college.

Something like 51-46, and he'd terrible in the electoral college. He may reach Romney's 206 and win Maine's 2nd CD.

Why? Cruz is hated by many, but he doesn't have the enthusiasm Trump has. Trump also had a lot of fight.

The reason Sessions endorsed Trump over Cruz was because Sessions felt Trump could win the rust belt, and that's where the 2016 election was going to be decided (which ended up being true). Cruz had no chance to win any of those states.

If you go by 'enthusiasm', none of the republican candidates had any serious enthusiasm behind them besides Trump and then Cruz.

Who is Cruz supposedly hated by? The 'Establishment', Cruz could get those votes in line by simply picking an Establishment GOPer like Jeb or Romney as VP, which would've especially worked out in the context of a contested convention.

Cruz would have gotten mauled in a general election.

He'd be lucky to get more EVs than Romney.

Hillary was the least popular person to ever run for president (other than Trump who had enough willing to hold their noses and vote).  Cruz- and almost all of the other GOP candidates- would have crushed Hillary with 350-400 EVs.

Favorability numbers aren't a constant. See Dukakis. Cruz's favorables sank after he started attacking Trump, Rubio's numbers were also similarly starting to fall right before he dropped out (they were on a similar trajectory as Cruz). By the end, Cruz & Jeb had similar favorables as Hillary.
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uti2
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Posts: 1,495


« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2017, 02:39:37 PM »

Gillespie calls NoVA 'enemy territory' - if it couldn't be more clear that he's running a Cruz-style campaign with 'New York Values'-like labeling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sC0GFSEnqs
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