Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie....

[Skill and Chance]

Ironically Cruz could have won the popular vote and lost the electoral college. I still think Hillary probably would have lost any way and Cruz would have won.

Quite possibly this.  Relative to Trump, Evangelical turnout would be through the roof and the suburban college+ vote would swing away less, but he wouldn't get anywhere near Trump's numbers with the secularish lower middle class in the North.  I do think he would still flip Iowa and Ohio, but beyond that his odds are slim.  VA and CO would be a 2% race similar to the last governor's race in both (Clinton would benefit a lot more from Kaine running against Cruz), and he could get a Bush 2004 like win in Florida.  A lot of that Evangelical turnout would be wasted getting ~65% in Texas and similar numbers in neighboring states.  Basically, it would look much more like a uniform swing from Obama 2012 when Dems held the EC advantage. 

Cruz/Bevin 259 EV 48.7%
Clinton/Kaine 279 EV 48.1%

[Skill and Chance]

Cruz would have pulled a Reverse Hillary, if anything. He would definitely have done better in the national PV and maybe even won it, but there's no way he would've picked up PA, MI & WI. Overall turnout would have been much lower; even though Cruz wouldn't have carried all of those blue-collar first-time and/or white working class Dems, he would have made them up by retaining support in suburbia. Clinton, on the other hand, would've had the same problems she had with the base and that first-time Latino voter turnout and support would've been a lot weaker due to it not being Trump on the ballot.

His margins would have been much better than Trump's in most suburban areas and that would have led to Obama '12-like margins for him in states like GA and TX. Of course, this would mean that it would have been Cruz - and not Hillary - whose voters were more poorly distributed for the EC.

Clinton 47.7% 279
Cruz 48.8% 259

This seems right, although I do think a Cruz breakthrough in Colorado or (less likely) Virginia is possible due to supercharged Evangelical turnout at almost a 90/10 margin for Cruz.