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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1  (Read 2755 times)
bronz4141
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« Reply #50 on: October 17, 2017, 08:40:06 pm »

The VA governor's race is tightening. If you like him or hate him, Terry McAuliffe is a hardball, brass-knuckles campaigner and politician. That is why he wins. He won in 2013 because of that. Now, McAuliffe looks like he will not have a successor like Kaine and Deeds (2009) and McDonnell and Cuccinelli (2013).

Virginia governors only serve one-terms anyway, but the Virginia Legislature is crucial as well.

The African-American and Latino vote may be unenthusiastic about Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam anyway. Some black voters may be voting for Ed Gillespie as well.

Virginia governors elections change parties. The pendulum swings. I don't think the current American political environment matters anymore unless if it has big impact. Republicans look motivated to vote and suburban Republicans look like they are voting for Gillespie. Even the rural/working class Republican Trump-Stewart voters look like they are for Gillespie, reluctantly. The Republican base looks energized in Virginia.

I wonder how Tom Perriello would have done....
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« Reply #51 on: October 17, 2017, 08:58:31 pm »

I think Gillespie has successfully found his "car tax" issue Ė MS-13/sanctuary cities/illegal immigration.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #52 on: October 17, 2017, 09:02:24 pm »


Did Monmouth even poll Virginia last year?
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #53 on: October 17, 2017, 10:37:51 pm »

Seems about right, maybe with Northam still slightly ahead.

But yeah, the Udall-esque switch to abortion was not a good fit. Plenty of good opportunities and that's what Northam goes with?

It's true that Northam well overperformed in the primaries and that Gillespie underperformed [or perhaps Stewart over is a better way to put it?] and this could happen again.

But given how the debates were, and Gillespie going all out...I not so sure of that.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #54 on: October 17, 2017, 10:42:25 pm »

They still have a shot at 60 seats now, lol. We really have no idea what the political environment will be like in a year.

Historically that is highly unlikely. Even in a favorable midterm, the party that controls the White House almost always has trouble ousting incumbent opposition party Senators. It's not to say Democrats won't lose some, but 8 would be GOP wave numbers and with Trump in office it's hard to argue even for a neutral year when he is digging their party into a ditch with the electorate.

It's undeniable the Republican Party's strength right now, but that came from a succession of favorable election years under what was an unpopular Democratic president (save for his entry, reelection and leaving office). Republicans aren't invincible, rather I think that 8 years is a long time and that is how long it has been since Republicans had a deeply unpopular president wrapped around their necks.

As it stands now, it's actually pretty remarkable things went downhill for Republicans so fast. It took Republicans a lot longer to start posting consistently comfortable leads in the generic ballot than it did for Democrats in 2017.

we're currently in a pro-D political environment that rivals if not eclipses 2006/2008, yet actual election results have not lined up with this reality outside of a couple crimson red seats Dems didn't try in (KS/SC.) It seems like every time Dems actually try in a race, they end up bungling it somehow (GA, MT, and now possibly VA.)

To be fair, Georgia's race was not really a friendly district - there are a lot more that are better targets and with electorates more friendly to Democrats. Coming in at around Clinton's numbers could have been the best Ossoff could do at this point, given how fast the district moved towards Democrats already. As for Montana, well even as he assaulted a reporter, most of the vote was already in at that point. Had he done it maybe a week or two prior, we could be having a different discussion. Suffice to say that there is a reason Trump picked incumbents from these districts, and not, say, people like Coffman, Upton or LoBiondo.

Point is, those Congressional races were all in tough, deeply conservative districts, ones Republicans probably wouldn't even expect to lose in a wave. If you look at the performance of Democrats in the oodles of legislative special elections, they have made decent gains and over-performed quite a bit. I think the average of it is +11 or +12 points better than they should, which even surpasses most of the generic ballot leads.

There was a Cook article (link) recently that went over something I've been saying for a while now, and that is that Virginia's gubernatorial race isn't the one to watch. It's the HoD races. That is where people's default opinions / opinions of the president tend to play out. It's easier for a single Republican candidate to wage an effective campaign for a single high-profile statewide race, but all those smaller races that people are largely in the dark about are where you see a potential wave building. So far Democrats have been posting pretty tall leads in the HoD generic ballot, which could translate to substantial gains. Maybe not enough to flip it, given all the incumbents Republicans have, but enough to use 2019 to build a majority.


I get your pessimism, I think it's warranted in some respects (NJ Democrats should be performing better given the state's leanings, but oh well), but after the Obama years, I find the energy on the left and current special election results (as a whole) rather encouraging

Normally that would be true, but the map is so stacked this time that even in a "neutral" year the Republicans would probably gain quite a few seats. Dems are having to defend a lot of deep red territory which could still be very vulnerable even in a Dem wave, and our prospects for gains are limited due to nearly hitting our ceiling in this class after 2012.

I'm glad Dems are crushing it in the generic ballot polls. But if it doesn't translate into actual results, then it's worth nothing. The only thing Hillary's 20+ point leads in the 2013-2015 polls got us was a lesson that early polls are totally worthless.

Is it safe to say that GA-06 is a race the Dems would almost certainly win in any scenario where they flip the House? I'd think so. Close but no cigar isn't gonna cut it, particularly since there's hardly any margin of error due to egregious gerrymandering. I think Republicans have a point about moral victories. I'm sick of them. I want some actual victories. The massive swings in KS/SC from the Trump/Clinton margin cannot be understated, and if replicated across the entire country it would make the 2008 and 2010 waves look like ripples in the kiddy pool. But then when we actually needed only the tiniest swing to win the Georgia district, it failed miserably.

Murphy and Northam matching Clinton's margin in their respective states isn't really going to give me much hope for 2018, much less if one or both of them either fall below Clinton's margin or, god forbid in Northam's case, lose.

You bring up some good points about the legislative and HoD races though. It'll be interesting to see how those turn out.
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Shadows
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« Reply #55 on: October 18, 2017, 04:22:19 am »

People kept saying these bland centrists are unelectable. Perriello was the better & stronger candidate.
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Lok
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« Reply #56 on: October 18, 2017, 05:02:05 am »

Some SERIOUS denial here... How come the GOP in Virginia seemingly outperform every poll? 2014 Ed vs Mark Warner (most popular politician in the state) was D+9 on election day, yet became D+1 barely. Cuccinelli was down D+7 and barely won by D+2. Polls are skewed, folks.
Please go away, poll truther.
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Fudotei
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« Reply #57 on: October 18, 2017, 07:51:01 am »

People kept saying these bland centrists are unelectable. Perriello was the better & stronger candidate.

Primaries in Virginia are open -- independents can vote. Given how strongly the Virginia Democrats rejected Perriello, and since that vote was open to independents (if it was closed, then Perriello might be less popular with Dems but more popular than Northam overall), I have doubts about that.

Plus, if Gillespie is making inroads based on MS-13 against Ralph "Eastern Shore native, VMI graduate, Army veteran, and pediatric neurologist" Northam, I can't imagine Perriello responding better.
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« Reply #58 on: October 18, 2017, 08:08:38 am »

This is just one poll showing Gillespie in the lead (and then only within the MoE), and you all are going apesh**t over it?  Really?  Roll Eyes

If we start seeing a trend within the next few weeks, then we can all get excited (or panicked) about it.  Until then, let's all chill for a bit. 
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Emperor Frederick II Hohenstaufen
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« Reply #59 on: October 18, 2017, 08:30:13 am »

This is just one poll showing Gillespie in the lead (and then only within the MoE), and you all are going apesh**t over it?  Really?  Roll Eyes

If we start seeing a trend within the next few weeks, then we can all get excited (or panicked) about it.  Until then, let's all chill for a bit. 

Good to see someone else is being rational about this Tongue
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heatcharger
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« Reply #60 on: October 18, 2017, 05:33:08 pm »

It's a neat narrative for out-of-state leftists, but actually the Northam campaign isn't filled with D.C. establishment types like Perriello's was.
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1J
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« Reply #61 on: October 18, 2017, 05:44:26 pm »

This is just one poll showing Gillespie in the lead (and then only within the MoE), and you all are going apesh**t over it?  Really?  Roll Eyes

If we start seeing a trend within the next few weeks, then we can all get excited (or panicked) about it.  Until then, let's all chill for a bit. 

Good to see someone else is being rational about this Tongue
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #62 on: October 18, 2017, 07:37:36 pm »

Look on the bright side: I'm sure that after Gillespie wins, the brilliant minds behind the Northam campaign will find comfy cushions as high-level staffers to Sinema or Rosen or something.
I see the someone can't let sh**t go.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #63 on: October 18, 2017, 10:22:34 pm »

Centrists like Tim Kaine and Terry McAuliffe can win, because they attract Independent voters. Creigh Deeds and Ralph Northam probably cannot. However, I think Northam wins by 4 points.
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WARR BOY
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« Reply #64 on: October 18, 2017, 10:26:03 pm »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 10:28:01 pm by peenie_weenie »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.

lulz. Check the VA megathread in the gubernatorial board and you'll see Greedo complaining on every page that every single poll that has Gillespie behind is fake because of polling discrepancies from 2014.

being on this board, even if just for a couple months, has shifted my motivations just a little bit, so that I hope Northam wins in (slight) part because the maroon-avatars and certain blue avatars on this site are going to be goddamn insufferable if he loses.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #65 on: October 18, 2017, 10:47:24 pm »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.

lulz. Check the VA megathread in the gubernatorial board and you'll see Greedo complaining on every page that every single poll that has Gillespie behind is fake because of polling discrepancies from 2014.

being on this board, even if just for a couple months, has shifted my motivations just a little bit, so that I hope Northam wins in (slight) part because the maroon-avatars and certain blue avatars on this site are going to be goddamn insufferable if he loses.
Lol I never said northam canít win I give Gillespie only a 58_60% chance of winning all Iím saying is
That you canít be aka Gillespie leading by 1 point then losing by 6 then losing by 7 and losing by 13 points itís not possible the polls saying Gillespie losing by 13 are garbage just like a poll showing Gillespie leading by 13 would be garbage.
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WARR BOY
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« Reply #66 on: October 18, 2017, 10:59:57 pm »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.

lulz. Check the VA megathread in the gubernatorial board and you'll see Greedo complaining on every page that every single poll that has Gillespie behind is fake because of polling discrepancies from 2014.

being on this board, even if just for a couple months, has shifted my motivations just a little bit, so that I hope Northam wins in (slight) part because the maroon-avatars and certain blue avatars on this site are going to be goddamn insufferable if he loses.
Lol I never said northam canít win I give Gillespie only a 58_60% chance of winning all Iím saying is
That you canít be aka Gillespie leading by 1 point then losing by 6 then losing by 7 and losing by 13 points itís not possible the polls saying Gillespie losing by 13 are garbage just like a poll showing Gillespie leading by 13 would be garbage.

If Gillespie wins, will you promise to start using punctuation and not writing posts as one long run-on sentence?

Can you make the same promise even if Northam wins too, actually?
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #67 on: October 18, 2017, 11:04:49 pm »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.

lulz. Check the VA megathread in the gubernatorial board and you'll see Greedo complaining on every page that every single poll that has Gillespie behind is fake because of polling discrepancies from 2014.

being on this board, even if just for a couple months, has shifted my motivations just a little bit, so that I hope Northam wins in (slight) part because the maroon-avatars and certain blue avatars on this site are going to be goddamn insufferable if he loses.
Lol I never said northam canít win I give Gillespie only a 58_60% chance of winning all Iím saying is
That you canít be aka Gillespie leading by 1 point then losing by 6 then losing by 7 and losing by 13 points itís not possible the polls saying Gillespie losing by 13 are garbage just like a poll showing Gillespie leading by 13 would be garbage.

If Gillespie wins, will you promise to start using punctuation and not writing posts as one long run-on sentence?

Can you make the same promise even if Northam wins too, actually?
Yes thatís something I need to work on in general.for school there only two things Iím behind on and thatís math and writing so yes I will get to it after my math class Wink
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« Reply #68 on: October 19, 2017, 12:31:38 am »

Wow, people are seriously losing their minds over ONE poll showing Gillespie up by ONE!? First of all, this race was never Safe D. There was always a chance that Gillespie could win. Also, has anyone ever heard of "averages"? Yes, this poll shouldn't be tossed out the window, but if you average it in with the other polls, it's clear that Northam is still the favorite, though he probably won't win by more than mid-single digits.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #69 on: October 19, 2017, 12:54:47 am »

Wow, people are seriously losing their minds over ONE poll showing Gillespie up by ONE!? First of all, this race was never Safe D. There was always a chance that Gillespie could win. Also, has anyone ever heard of "averages"? Yes, this poll shouldn't be tossed out the window, but if you average it in with the other polls, it's clear that Northam is still the favorite, though he probably won't win by more than mid-single digits.


It's typical Atlas. It regularly bounces between both extremes - "DEMS ARE GOING TO WIN TEXAS!!!!" one day, then "OOP, REPS LEADING IN FLORIDA BY 1%, HERE COMES THE YUGE WAVE" the next, then back again.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #70 on: October 19, 2017, 07:28:56 am »

New Poll: Virginia Governor by Monmouth University on 2017-10-16

Summary: D: 47%, R: 48%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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