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  VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1  (Read 2751 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: October 17, 2017, 01:52:51 pm »

Gillespie - 48%
Northam - 47%
Hyra - 3%
Undecided - 3%

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It should be noted, however, that this poll assumes an electorate that is much whiter and much more Republican than the 2014 midterms.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/920341592074084354


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_VA_101717/
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2017, 02:14:03 pm »

I'm not about to start unskewing polls but I think Monmouth is making a mistake in assuming 2017 will be more Republican friendly then 2014. Just throw it in the average.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2017, 02:26:26 pm »

The demographics are remarkably different from even their last poll, but yeah just throw it in the average.
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Emperor Frederick II Hohenstaufen
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2017, 02:29:24 pm »

Like any outlier, I'm gonna wait for confirmation before getting too worried.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2017, 02:31:34 pm »

The demographics are remarkably different from even their last poll, but yeah just throw it in the average.

The demographics and region break down don't make any sense.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2017, 03:16:08 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2017, 03:30:48 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Why is that? This is Virginia. It was probably always going to be close.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2017, 03:37:02 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Why is that? This is Virginia. It was probably always going to be close.

2009 wasn't close. Neither was the 2008 Senate race.

Gillespie is facing massive anti-Trump/anti-GOP headwinds in a lean D Clinton state with 2 Dem senators and a Dem governor. Granted, this is mitigated somewhat by governor's races tending to be less partisan than federal races, but still. It's remarkable that he's still in the game at all considering those headwinds. If Hillary was president it's probably safe to say it would either be a neutral or pro-GOP environment.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2017, 03:38:18 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Why is that? This is Virginia. It was probably always going to be close.

2009 wasn't close. Neither was the 2008 Senate race.

Gillespie is facing massive anti-Trump/anti-GOP headwinds in a lean D Clinton state with 2 Dem senators and a Dem governor. Granted, this is mitigated somewhat by governor's races tending to be less partisan than federal races, but still. It's remarkable that he's still in the game at all considering those headwinds. If Hillary was president it's probably safe to say it would either be a neutral or pro-GOP environment.

I agree with this.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2017, 03:38:41 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Maybe yes, Maybe no. Virginia has become pretty inelastic, stuck between D+1 and D+6 for all races between 2005-2016, with the exception of the 2008 senate race, which was "Moderate Dem vs. Total Gadfly", and the 2009 gubernatorial election. However, in the long-term nationally, it is probably better strategically for dems that they lost the presidency. With Trump as President, dems have a chance at breaking even in the senate in '18, maybe even a net gain of 1 seat. With Hillary as President, the GOP would have a shot at 60 seats.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2017, 03:41:25 pm »

Monmouth is an A+ pollster on 538. Great momentum for Ed.
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2017, 03:45:08 pm »

Sigh. This is why I was for Perriello.

Don't be surprised if Gillespie narrowly wins in November.
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2017, 03:45:15 pm »

Monmouth is an A+ pollster on 538. Great momentum for Ed.
Sweet
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2017, 03:53:27 pm »

Junk poll.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2017, 03:54:15 pm »

I just cant see the Virginia electorate being whiter and more republican than in 2014. I think Monmouth is trying to prevent a repeat of 2014 with Warner but by doing that, they over-corrected. Virginia is getting less white and less republican, not more. I also cant see turnout in Western Virginia matching NoVa. This poll is just so flawed. Its good Monmouth released it, and theres only so much you can do with a bad sample but this is just a bad poll.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2017, 04:10:02 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Maybe yes, Maybe no. Virginia has become pretty inelastic, stuck between D+1 and D+6 for all races between 2005-2016, with the exception of the 2008 senate race, which was "Moderate Dem vs. Total Gadfly", and the 2009 gubernatorial election. However, in the long-term nationally, it is probably better strategically for dems that they lost the presidency. With Trump as President, dems have a chance at breaking even in the senate in '18, maybe even a net gain of 1 seat. With Hillary as President, the GOP would have a shot at 60 seats.

They still have a shot at 60 seats now, lol. We really have no idea what the political environment will be like in a year. At least with Hillary we would've gotten a SCOTUS seat and a veto pen. It's pretty strange how, according to common sense and the polls, we're currently in a pro-D political environment that rivals if not eclipses 2006/2008, yet actual election results have not lined up with this reality outside of a couple crimson red seats Dems didn't try in (KS/SC.) It seems like every time Dems actually try in a race, they end up bungling it somehow (GA, MT, and now possibly VA.) Hell, even in NJ the race is defaulting to a generic D vs. generic R margin despite Trump AND Christie's toxicity in the state. Good lord, Dems couldn't even beat a guy who literally assaulted a reporter the day before the election, LOL. I have to laugh at that otherwise I'd cry.

It seems to be a fairly consistent trend that Dems do very well in hypothetical polls of races months/years in advance, then completely fall apart on the actual day of the election or in polls taken close to it. This happened with Hillary, Ossoff, Quist, Feingold, most of our incumbents in 2014, the generic ballot polls in 2013, and the list goes on. And it spans the entire ideological spectrum, so don't give me any of that muh Hillary wing vs. muh Bernie wing crap. Feingold was the Berniebros' hero before most of them even knew Bernie's name, yet he lost by a far bigger margin than Hillary did in Wisconsin in a race he supposedly had in the bag for over a year. Quist was also from the "Bernie wing" and got thumped by an assaulting carpetbagger from New Jersey.
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Emperor Frederick II Hohenstaufen
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2017, 04:12:47 pm »


That reminds me, has anyone checked to see whether this guy is Krazen's sock?  I've been meaning to ask about this.
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Young Texan
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2017, 04:14:28 pm »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2017, 04:16:09 pm »

@IceSpear: In case you're not aware, the official excuse for Dems not being able to beat Assaulterforte in MT (I refuse to call him by his real name after his actions), is that most of the vote was cast during early voting.
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uti2
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2017, 04:17:41 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Maybe yes, Maybe no. Virginia has become pretty inelastic, stuck between D+1 and D+6 for all races between 2005-2016, with the exception of the 2008 senate race, which was "Moderate Dem vs. Total Gadfly", and the 2009 gubernatorial election. However, in the long-term nationally, it is probably better strategically for dems that they lost the presidency. With Trump as President, dems have a chance at breaking even in the senate in '18, maybe even a net gain of 1 seat. With Hillary as President, the GOP would have a shot at 60 seats.

If Hillary had won, she would've done better downballot taking a few seats away from the GOP.

Compare the downballot performance of 2012 vs 2016, it's very clear that the GOP overperformed in 2016. Part of that can be attributed to Hillary's GOP courtship strategy.
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« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2017, 04:19:34 pm »
« Edited: October 17, 2017, 04:21:15 pm by DTC »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.

The issue is the sample of this poll are different from their last poll. This poll is 28% dem 30% repub 43% independent. Independents went by 4 to Northam. Their last poll was like 32% dem 25% repub 43% independent and independents went by 4 to Gillepsie.

These demographics are very different from VA as a whole (it was like 37% dem 32% repub in 2013 and 40% dem and 33% repub in 2016).

I could poll only republicans in California and show that the republican is up 88-12 in California but that wouldn't be a good sample.

I could also only poll eastern California and show republicans winning, but again, there's a whole west coast.

So clearly, the only thing this poll says is that independents are still slightly for either Northam or Gillepsie (slight trend towards Northam in a lot of polls, but Gillepsie was up in the early polls), and that this race will come down to turnout.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2017, 04:21:48 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Maybe yes, Maybe no. Virginia has become pretty inelastic, stuck between D+1 and D+6 for all races between 2005-2016, with the exception of the 2008 senate race, which was "Moderate Dem vs. Total Gadfly", and the 2009 gubernatorial election. However, in the long-term nationally, it is probably better strategically for dems that they lost the presidency. With Trump as President, dems have a chance at breaking even in the senate in '18, maybe even a net gain of 1 seat. With Hillary as President, the GOP would have a shot at 60 seats.

If Hillary had won, she would've done better downballot taking a few seats away from the GOP.

Compare the downballot performance of 2012 vs 2016, it's very clear that the GOP overperformed in 2016. Part of that can be attributed to Hillary's GOP courtship strategy.

Depends. If Hillary had just barely eked out narrow wins in MI, WI, PA, she would have won the presidency narrowly, but downballot results probably stay the same.  If she had won by something more like Obama's margin, then yeah, you have a point.
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Emperor Frederick II Hohenstaufen
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2017, 04:22:05 pm »

@IceSpear: In case you're not aware, the official excuse for Dems not being able to beat Assaulterforte in MT (I refuse to call him by his real name after his actions), is that most of the vote was cast during early voting.

I'm pretty sure most Democrats agree that it had more to do with the fact that Quist by all accounts proved to be a piss-poor candidate despite initially looking solid on paper.
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uti2
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2017, 04:24:23 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Maybe yes, Maybe no. Virginia has become pretty inelastic, stuck between D+1 and D+6 for all races between 2005-2016, with the exception of the 2008 senate race, which was "Moderate Dem vs. Total Gadfly", and the 2009 gubernatorial election. However, in the long-term nationally, it is probably better strategically for dems that they lost the presidency. With Trump as President, dems have a chance at breaking even in the senate in '18, maybe even a net gain of 1 seat. With Hillary as President, the GOP would have a shot at 60 seats.

If Hillary had won, she would've done better downballot taking a few seats away from the GOP.

Compare the downballot performance of 2012 vs 2016, it's very clear that the GOP overperformed in 2016. Part of that can be attributed to Hillary's GOP courtship strategy.

Depends. If Hillary had just barely eked out narrow wins in MI, WI, PA, she would have won the presidency narrowly, but downballot results probably stay the same.  If she had won by something more like Obama's margin, then yeah, you have a point.

You need to remember though it wasn't just Trump who outperformed the polls, those GOP downballot candidates also outperformed the polls. So, the same phenomenon that helped Trump in the end, also helped them.

We know that Comey made his decision to go public based on a forged russian document.
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2017, 04:26:37 pm »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.
Go look on the main VA post I have gotten tons of hate because I called the polls with 11 point leads for northam junk
Also getting hate for saying Gillespie is going to win.
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