VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1

[Suburbia]

The VA governor's race is tightening. If you like him or hate him, Terry McAuliffe is a hardball, brass-knuckles campaigner and politician. That is why he wins. He won in 2013 because of that. Now, McAuliffe looks like he will not have a successor like Kaine and Deeds (2009) and McDonnell and Cuccinelli (2013).

Virginia governors only serve one-terms anyway, but the Virginia Legislature is crucial as well.

The African-American and Latino vote may be unenthusiastic about Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam anyway. Some black voters may be voting for Ed Gillespie as well.

Virginia governors elections change parties. The pendulum swings. I don't think the current American political environment matters anymore unless if it has big impact. Republicans look motivated to vote and suburban Republicans look like they are voting for Gillespie. Even the rural/working class Republican Trump-Stewart voters look like they are for Gillespie, reluctantly. The Republican base looks energized in Virginia.

I wonder how Tom Perriello would have done....

[Suburbia]

Centrists like Tim Kaine and Terry McAuliffe can win, because they attract Independent voters. Creigh Deeds and Ralph Northam probably cannot. However, I think Northam wins by 4 points.