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  VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1  (Read 2867 times)
uti2
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« on: October 17, 2017, 04:17:41 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Maybe yes, Maybe no. Virginia has become pretty inelastic, stuck between D+1 and D+6 for all races between 2005-2016, with the exception of the 2008 senate race, which was "Moderate Dem vs. Total Gadfly", and the 2009 gubernatorial election. However, in the long-term nationally, it is probably better strategically for dems that they lost the presidency. With Trump as President, dems have a chance at breaking even in the senate in '18, maybe even a net gain of 1 seat. With Hillary as President, the GOP would have a shot at 60 seats.

If Hillary had won, she would've done better downballot taking a few seats away from the GOP.

Compare the downballot performance of 2012 vs 2016, it's very clear that the GOP overperformed in 2016. Part of that can be attributed to Hillary's GOP courtship strategy.
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uti2
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2017, 04:24:23 pm »

Even though it's an outlier, it's pretty embarrassing for Dems that this is even close. If Hillary was president Gillespie would probably be a shoo in.

Maybe yes, Maybe no. Virginia has become pretty inelastic, stuck between D+1 and D+6 for all races between 2005-2016, with the exception of the 2008 senate race, which was "Moderate Dem vs. Total Gadfly", and the 2009 gubernatorial election. However, in the long-term nationally, it is probably better strategically for dems that they lost the presidency. With Trump as President, dems have a chance at breaking even in the senate in '18, maybe even a net gain of 1 seat. With Hillary as President, the GOP would have a shot at 60 seats.

If Hillary had won, she would've done better downballot taking a few seats away from the GOP.

Compare the downballot performance of 2012 vs 2016, it's very clear that the GOP overperformed in 2016. Part of that can be attributed to Hillary's GOP courtship strategy.

Depends. If Hillary had just barely eked out narrow wins in MI, WI, PA, she would have won the presidency narrowly, but downballot results probably stay the same.  If she had won by something more like Obama's margin, then yeah, you have a point.

You need to remember though it wasn't just Trump who outperformed the polls, those GOP downballot candidates also outperformed the polls. So, the same phenomenon that helped Trump in the end, also helped them.

We know that Comey made his decision to go public based on a forged russian document.
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uti2
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2017, 04:39:15 pm »


If we assume that each GOP downballot candidate outperforms or underperforms Trump to the same degree as they did in real life, and adjust the presidential result the 1% that is needed for Hillary to win WI, MI, PA, no senate race flips. (Although Toomey's race becomes perilously close at R+0.43)

Or how about this? The Comey's announcement caused a uniform 3% swing of voters who were otherwise ready for Hillary/Feingold to win to Trump/Johnson. That's why both Trump & Johnson overperformed the polls.

Look at the polling for Bayh pre-Comey announcement.
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uti2
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2017, 04:49:29 pm »

If 3% of voters were solidly in the D camp, and solidly moved to R following Comey's announcement, that would cause a 6% swing in the results.
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