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July 18, 2019, 07:17:37 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Monmouth: Gillespie +1  (Read 2665 times)
DTC
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« on: October 17, 2017, 04:19:34 pm »
« edited: October 17, 2017, 04:21:15 pm by DTC »

Itís funny that the left will always say junk poll when it doesnít favor their side. Polling numbers change and so do peopleís opinions.

The issue is the sample of this poll are different from their last poll. This poll is 28% dem 30% repub 43% independent. Independents went by 4 to Northam. Their last poll was like 32% dem 25% repub 43% independent and independents went by 4 to Gillepsie.

These demographics are very different from VA as a whole (it was like 37% dem 32% repub in 2013 and 40% dem and 33% repub in 2016).

I could poll only republicans in California and show that the republican is up 88-12 in California but that wouldn't be a good sample.

I could also only poll eastern California and show republicans winning, but again, there's a whole west coast.

So clearly, the only thing this poll says is that independents are still slightly for either Northam or Gillepsie (slight trend towards Northam in a lot of polls, but Gillepsie was up in the early polls), and that this race will come down to turnout.
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