Emerson poll: Trump trails Biden, ties Warren, leads Cuban
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Author Topic: Emerson poll: Trump trails Biden, ties Warren, leads Cuban  (Read 861 times)
IceSpear
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« on: October 17, 2017, 06:00:54 PM »
Biden 51
Trump 42

Trump 44
Warren 44

Trump 43
Cuban 36

FWIW, this poll has Trump's approval rating significantly higher than most. Not that polls three years in advance are worth jack anyway.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-10.16-national.press_.release.pdf
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ahugecat
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2017, 06:11:28 PM »
Biden is way too old.

Warren vs. Trump would be an interesting battle.

I don't see Cuban actually running to be honest. Today there are already leaked photos of him doing weird sexual stuff and drugs. Trump had to deal with the Access Hollywood tape (which I think caught even HIM off guard).

Clinton really damaged the Democrats. They have NO bench. At least the Republicans learned from 2012 and had some great candidates in 2016. The Democrats truly thought the Queen would be anointed.

It makes me so happy to see the Presidency snatched from Clinton :-).
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TPIG
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2017, 06:11:49 PM »
Despite the likely junkiness of this poll, I think it helps to debunk the myth that the Bernie/Warren wing of the Democratic Party perpetuates of its candidates being the most electable.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2017, 06:21:59 PM »
You can find full results here:

http://www.emerson.edu/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling-society/latest-polls

fav/unfav %:
Merkel 41/33% for +8%
Trump 44/53% for -9%
Putin 11/73% for -62%
Kim Jong Un 2/92% for -90%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2017, 08:17:27 PM »
Crosstabs:

Trump vs. Biden:
men: Trump +2
women: Biden +19
Northeast: Biden +9
Midwest: Biden +27
South: Trump +5
West: Biden +12

Trump vs. Cuban:
men: Trump +14
women: Trump +1
Northeast: Trump +10
Midwest: Cuban +11
South: Trump +15
West: Trump +8

Trump vs. Warren:
men: Trump +11
women: Warren +8
Northeast: Trump +7
Midwest: Warren +20
South: Trump +12
West: Warren +2
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Sestak
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2017, 08:19:30 PM »
This is exactly why I want the guy to run. I don't care if he's "too old" or whatever, we might need him.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2017, 08:21:39 PM »
LOL, why waste a poll option on seeing Cuban get his butt kicked?
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JA
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2017, 08:24:11 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 08:17:27 PM
Crosstabs:

Trump vs. Biden:
men: Trump +2
women: Biden +19
Northeast: Biden +9
Midwest: Biden +27
South: Trump +5
West: Biden +12

Trump vs. Cuban:
men: Trump +14
women: Trump +1
Northeast: Trump +10
Midwest: Cuban +11
South: Trump +15
West: Trump +8

Trump vs. Warren:
men: Trump +11
women: Warren +8
Northeast: Trump +7
Midwest: Warren +20
South: Trump +12
West: Warren +2

Ok...
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Bismarck
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2017, 08:24:17 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 08:17:27 PM
Crosstabs:

Trump vs. Biden:
men: Trump +2
women: Biden +19
Northeast: Biden +9
Midwest: Biden +27
South: Trump +5
West: Biden +12

Trump vs. Cuban:
men: Trump +14
women: Trump +1
Northeast: Trump +10
Midwest: Cuban +11
South: Trump +15
West: Trump +8

Trump vs. Warren:
men: Trump +11
women: Warren +8
Northeast: Trump +7
Midwest: Warren +20
South: Trump +12
West: Warren +2


Those midwestern numbers seem a bit drastic.
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Sestak
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2017, 08:27:11 PM »
Quote from: Bismarck on October 17, 2017, 08:24:17 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 08:17:27 PM
Crosstabs:

Trump vs. Biden:
men: Trump +2
women: Biden +19
Northeast: Biden +9
Midwest: Biden +27
South: Trump +5
West: Biden +12

Trump vs. Cuban:
men: Trump +14
women: Trump +1
Northeast: Trump +10
Midwest: Cuban +11
South: Trump +15
West: Trump +8

Trump vs. Warren:
men: Trump +11
women: Warren +8
Northeast: Trump +7
Midwest: Warren +20
South: Trump +12
West: Warren +2


Those midwestern numbers seem a bit drastic.

Lol yeah. I think Biden may actually hold a reasonable lead there, but not by that much. And the other two no way.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2017, 08:42:03 PM »
Emerson is still producing trash I see.
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History505
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2017, 09:09:58 PM »
Biden and Warren going to be very formidable if they run, not sure about Cuban.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2017, 09:38:02 PM »
Biden v. Trump or Warren v. Trump would have some explosive debates.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2017, 09:44:57 PM »
Quote from: Jacobin American on October 17, 2017, 08:24:11 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 08:17:27 PM
Crosstabs:

Trump vs. Biden:
men: Trump +2
women: Biden +19
Northeast: Biden +9
Midwest: Biden +27
South: Trump +5
West: Biden +12

Trump vs. Cuban:
men: Trump +14
women: Trump +1
Northeast: Trump +10
Midwest: Cuban +11
South: Trump +15
West: Trump +8

Trump vs. Warren:
men: Trump +11
women: Warren +8
Northeast: Trump +7
Midwest: Warren +20
South: Trump +12
West: Warren +2

Ok...
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Pericles
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2017, 11:10:14 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 06:21:59 PM
You can find full results here:

http://www.emerson.edu/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling-society/latest-polls

fav/unfav %:
Merkel 41/33% for +8%
Trump 44/53% for -9%
Putin 11/73% for -62%
Kim Jong Un 2/92% for -90%


Who are the 2% that have a favorable view of Kim Jong-Un?
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Kamala
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2017, 11:16:16 PM »
Quote from: Pericles on October 17, 2017, 11:10:14 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 06:21:59 PM
You can find full results here:

http://www.emerson.edu/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling-society/latest-polls

fav/unfav %:
Merkel 41/33% for +8%
Trump 44/53% for -9%
Putin 11/73% for -62%
Kim Jong Un 2/92% for -90%


Who are the 2% that have a favorable view of Kim Jong-Un?

Tankies?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2017, 11:45:14 PM »
Quote from: Bismarck on October 17, 2017, 08:24:17 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 08:17:27 PM
Crosstabs:

Trump vs. Biden:
men: Trump +2
women: Biden +19
Northeast: Biden +9
Midwest: Biden +27
South: Trump +5
West: Biden +12

Trump vs. Cuban:
men: Trump +14
women: Trump +1
Northeast: Trump +10
Midwest: Cuban +11
South: Trump +15
West: Trump +8

Trump vs. Warren:
men: Trump +11
women: Warren +8
Northeast: Trump +7
Midwest: Warren +20
South: Trump +12
West: Warren +2


Those midwestern numbers seem a bit drastic.

Big promises, and nothing done. He has rarely appeared in the Midwest. Just look at approval ratings for him in some states that he won - Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Americans know Joe Biden far better than they know Elizabeth Warren and Mark Cuban.  What we must notice by now is that President Trump so far would get much the same percentage of votes against Biden, Warren, or Cuban. Biden is really-well known, and the others aren't.

Do 42, 43, and 44 suggest his floor or his ceiling?

President Trump is as well known as anyone could be. Everyone else can gain against him.
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user12345
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2017, 11:49:55 PM »
Quote from: Pericles on October 17, 2017, 11:10:14 PM
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 17, 2017, 06:21:59 PM
You can find full results here:

http://www.emerson.edu/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling-society/latest-polls

fav/unfav %:
Merkel 41/33% for +8%
Trump 44/53% for -9%
Putin 11/73% for -62%
Kim Jong Un 2/92% for -90%


Who are the 2% that have a favorable view of Kim Jong-Un?

Statistical anomalies and jokers. 
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Pollster
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2017, 12:07:08 AM »
The regional numbers are true head-scratchers. I expect the midwest numbers may be due to the overrepresentation of Illinois, and/or due to the laws many midwestern states have prohibiting IVR polling. The northeast is quite strange, though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2017, 12:10:05 AM »
Quote from: Pollster on October 18, 2017, 12:07:08 AM
The regional numbers are true head-scratchers.

The entire poll is only 385 people, so the regional subsamples are about 100 people each.  MoE is huge.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2017, 01:38:33 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on October 18, 2017, 12:10:05 AM
Quote from: Pollster on October 18, 2017, 12:07:08 AM
The regional numbers are true head-scratchers.

The entire poll is only 385 people, so the regional subsamples are about 100 people each.  MoE is huge.

Plus Emerson is junk anyway.
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Harlow
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« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2017, 01:58:11 AM »

Wow, what a balanced and well-reasoned article totally destroying someone who's stupid enough to try to prevent nuclear war from happening.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2017, 02:16:50 AM »
Quote from: Technocracy Timmy on October 18, 2017, 02:04:03 AM
Biden won’t run: he’d turn 80 his first year elected.
Warren won’t run: she’s openly admitted that she’s a lousy campaigner and didn’t want to run last year either.
Cuban: LOL no

Gillibrand, Booker, Harris, and Klobuchar have all told donors they’re running. Poll them instead.

They'd get less clicks
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2017, 02:59:58 AM »
Quote from: Statilius the Epicurean on October 18, 2017, 02:16:50 AM
Quote from: Technocracy Timmy on October 18, 2017, 02:04:03 AM
Biden won’t run: he’d turn 80 his first year elected.
Warren won’t run: she’s openly admitted that she’s a lousy campaigner and didn’t want to run last year either.
Cuban: LOL no

Gillibrand, Booker, Harris, and Klobuchar have all told donors they’re running. Poll them instead.

They'd get less clicks

Plus they're all interchangeable due to having like 20% name recognition at best.
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Sirius_
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2017, 08:45:22 AM »
Quote from: Biden/Kander 2020 on October 17, 2017, 08:19:30 PM
This is exactly why I want the guy to run. I don't care if he's "too old" or whatever, we might need him.
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