The Iron Lady - 1986 General Election

[Lumine]

October 1986 - Foot and Labour aim to repeat their victory

Prelude: In the middle of a booming economy but facing serious domestic strife and foreign policy chaos, Michael Foot fights for a second mandate after five years as Prime Minister and despite advancing age. Can he repeat his triumph?

Labour Party: Having governed through the past five years on an invincible majority, an increasingly frail Prime Minister Foot is back on the campaign trail again to secure another mandate for Labour. Championing their economic record and downplaying domestic and foreign policy backlash, the Labour manifesto calls for further disarmament and cuts to national defence, a minimum wage and increased industrial democracy, expanding devolution in Wales and Scotland, going through with the promised banking control scheme and expanded nationalization efforts on further industries. Labour has also blasted the Conservatives and the Democrats for "wanting to return to the past."

Conservative Party: Despite the humiliation of 1981, Michael Heseltine's Conservatives are determined to return as a major party, setting themselves an ambitious target of clawing back to more than 150 MP's, hoping to prove the past result was a fluke. Heseltine has championed his own form of "compassionate conservatism" and "caring capitalism", promoting pro-free market reforms along with social programs and inner cities rejuvenation as they way forward. The Conservative manifesto also supports nuclear weapons, Europe, an immediate return to NATO and reforming public services to increase efficiency. Heseltine has also struck an aggresive tone against Labour, denouncing the shared control of the Falklands and warning against "the rising tide of socialism."

Democrats: Born out of the fusion of the SDP-Liberal Alliance, the Democrats under Shirley Williams are going on an all-out campaign to become the new "progressive, center-left" alternative to the Labour Party, attacking Foot for his radical policies and arguing for a more "reasonable" course towards social justice. The charismatic (and media darling) Williams stands on a platform of social-liberalism, a moderate to dovish foreign policy, staunch support for Europe (and a return to the EEC), electoral and government reform, comprehensive educational reform and anti-discrimination laws.

Two days.

[Lumine]

Foot on track of repeating the landslide as we speak. I'm strongly considering including one or two new parties for the next General Election.

[Lumine]

Foot on track of repeating the landslide as we speak. I'm strongly considering including one or two new parties for the next General Election.

Hopefully leftist ones, because atm it looks like Labour has a solid Atlas majority

I'll start to get a bit creative! Also, there will be at least two celebrities as Leader candidates in the future elections (could be anywhere from 1986 to 2017). If someone guesses the right celebrity and party he/she gets a reward for this interactive timeline.

[Lumine]

For all what's worth the current result, while still a labour landslide, wouldn't be that lopsided. It's actually quite close to the 1997 and 2001 results, with the exception of the Lib Dems which are way too high (there's no "others" option and we're not counting Northern Ireland)

Yeah, counting smaller parties would screw up the results too much (I just estimate the share of the vote of the minor parties and remove it in equal parts from the main party votes). Having said that, I expect to add one or two extra parties at the next General Election.

[Lumine]

Lots of interesting choices! I'll be messaging winners (if there are some) as celebrity candidates appear later in the timeline.

As to who will be the first, I can only say that said person should be elected first Mayor of London very soon on this TL. And to add to the mystery, it won't be someone from Labour.

[Lumine]

1986 General Election:

October 1986 - Foot survives... barely

Labour Party: 39.3% (334 MP's)
Conservative Party: 34.0% (262 MP's)
Democrats: 22.1% (30 MP's)
Others: 4.6% (24 MP's)

Time had run out for Labour, and it was time to face the electorate to defend their landslide majority from 1981. With Labour holding a safe advantage in the polls at the start of the campaign their campaign efforts (led by Neil Kinnock) chose to lead a defensive campaign to prevent losing too many of the seats they had won from the Conservatives at the past election, seeking to demonize Heseltine as an extension of Thatcher and portray Labour as the new party of government. On the opposing side and with little to lose, Shirley Williams and Michael Heseltine launched their own efforts with a fiery disposition, determined to bring down the Labour juggernaut despite the odds.

To say that the opening of the Labour campaign was close to a disaster would be kind. Prime Minister Foot broke a few ribs in fall after one of his first campaign appearances, leaving him in hospital for several days while giving an impression of frailty. The Labour manifesto turned out to be received in a negative way by the electorate, as the manifesto (which Kinnock could not stop from being hugely influenced by the Bennites) promised significant tax increases and economic control measures which the public clearly didn't like. Further rearmament promises also led to easy accusations that Labour would be leaving the United Kingdom too undefended, and that's where Heseltine went for the kill.

The chance was provided by the aggressive posturing of the recently enshrined Soviet General Secretary Yegor Ligachev (having taken office after the death of Mikhail Gorbachev in a plane crash), who to cement his rule had engaged in an aggressive standoff with President Reagan over Berlin which came close (but not as close as the Cuban Missile Crisis) from turning into a full-blown crisis. Persuading his own MP's that there was little alternative but to fight an all out effort, Heseltine took to the streets on a strident message of security and defence, denouncing the Prime Minister for "leaving Britain open to danger". Shirley Williams, on the other hand, was hurt by the extreme views of defence for several former Liberals inside the Democrats, who continued to push for disarmament and continuously undercut Williams's arguments in a way which left the divisions inside the third party all too clear.

By the closing of the campaign Heseltine and the Conservatives were gaining strongly in the polls against a divided Labour in free fall (the Democrats having stagnated), leading to an internal coup inside the Labour campaign. Anthony Blair, Foot's youngest protege, convinced the Prime Minister to wrestle the campaign away from Kinnock (whose reputation had collapsed) and into the hands of a centralized team of young operators led by Blair himself, his wife Cherie (MP for Thanet North), Bryan Gould, Peter Mandelson and others. Despite the limited time, a series of stinging ads against Heseltine and particularly against Shirley Williams worked their magic as the Labour drop stabilized. By election night Labour was still several points ahead of the Conservatives, but it was no longer a 1981-style landslide.

The results were far more painful for the government. With Williams having achieved limited gains and 8 new MP's (including the return to Parliament of David Owen and Bill Rodgers), Heseltine took the Conservatives all the way from 22% to 34%, making over 200 gains in the course of the night which overcame even the more optimistic Tory forecasts. A stunned Foot watched in silence as over 200 Labour MP's elected in the 81' landslide went down in flames, including an angry Cherie Blair (who vowed to return) and several members of the Labour right. The next day Michael Foot returned to Downing Street Ten with what many described as a hollow victory, his unassailable majority reduced to 18 seats and his ambitious colleagues beginning to sharpen the knives for the weakened Prime Minister.