Will TX GOV be more competitive than we think?

[wxtransit]

It's certainly possible, however, the trend that occurred in 2016, I think, was partially due to the extraordinary circumstances surrounding the election. Yes, Texas is certainly trending towards the left, but I don't think it's as hard to the left as some have stated. There is still an obvious majority of Republican-leaning voters, and being on the ground here in Texas and living in an area that is trending D harder than the rest of the state, I can still say the majority of the people I know (of many different political backgrounds) seem to support Abbott, and it seems that the GOP is still alive and well and no "funeral" is needed. However, this is anecdotal.

Texas is not as competitive as, say, Florida, so writing off the Texas GOP and declaring its death when Trump still had a nine point lead in 2016 seems a bit much, as nine points is not "close" by many standards. I once read in a FiveThirtyEight article that, for a candidate or party to win Texas, they need to win two of three things: the rural areas, the suburbs, and the city. Unlike suburbs in the Northeast and other areas (where most suburban moms went for Clinton), the GOP still seems to have a bit of a lock on the suburbs. Although, time will tell what happens to this come 2018. My C-TX avatar is just that: I'm actually from Texas, and from what I see day-to-day, it dosen't seem that the Republican Party is crumbling at the rate that some are proclaiming.

Another factor is that Abbott himself may not be affected by Trump himself as much as, well, Trump. Abbott certainly does not use the same campaign style and, while having the Republican label under his name, may not suffer the same effects as some other R's.

Although, it is still to far out to say.

[krazen1211]

No Way! Abbott wins by 20.

I'm sorry, but your bias is blinding you to the very real risks present in Texas, Krazen

Pal, the Democrat party has been threatening to win elections in Texas for 24 years now. All they do is lose. I am old enough to remember Wenchy Davis trying the same.

[Lord Admirale]

No Way! Abbott wins by 20.

I'm sorry, but your bias is blinding you to the very real risks present in Texas, Krazen

Pal, the Democrat party has been threatening to win elections in Texas for 24 years now. All they do is lose. I am old enough to remember Wenchy Davis trying the same.

Sounds like someone is in denial!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's okay, Krazen. Hey, if you can get Wendy Davis to create an account here, she can be part of the funeral!

[wxtransit]

It's okay, Krazen. Hey, if you can get Wendy Davis to create an account here, she can be part of the funeral!

The funeral of her leadership of TX Democrats?

[McGovernForPrez]

It's okay, Krazen. Hey, if you can get Wendy Davis to create an account here, she can be part of the funeral!

The funeral of her leadership of TX Democrats?

Yeah because the new guard is taking over. Viva la O' Rourke!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's okay, Krazen. Hey, if you can get Wendy Davis to create an account here, she can be part of the funeral!

The funeral of her leadership of TX Democrats?

No, her remarks would be about the true harassment the Republican State Senate President committed when he unsuccessfully attempted to stop her pro-abortion filibuster in time to pass pro-life legislation. She can speak about how much better the world is now that the TX republican party is dead.

[Kamala]

This thread was a fascinating insight into the male mind.

[wxtransit]

It's okay, Krazen. Hey, if you can get Wendy Davis to create an account here, she can be part of the funeral!

The funeral of her leadership of TX Democrats?

Yeah because the new guard is taking over. Viva la O' Rourke!

Olé!

[wxtransit]

This thread was a fascinating insight into the male mind.

Quite fascinating indeed.

Wait...I didn't put my gender down....... DO YOU KNOW WHERE I LIVE?


mic drop

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Wendy Davis losing by the margin she lost by was an incredible sight, anyways can you guys stop this discord shtick now its kind of annoying

[fluffypanther19]

Wendy Davis losing by the margin she lost by was an incredible sight, anyways can you guys stop this discord shtick now its kind of annoying

Are the democrats here being honest?!? I can't tell if this thread is a sh*tpost or not. I'm serious, Texas is shifting towards democrats but cmon people the state is still republican as hell.

[Virginiá]

Are the democrats here being honest?!? I can't tell if this thread is a sh*tpost or not. I'm serious, Texas is shifting towards democrats but cmon people the state is still republican as hell.

Well there sure is some optimism afoot, but I think the only thing Texas Republicans have to worry about is losing some seats in the legislature and their House delegation. They have a pretty good lock on statewide offices, and it is probably too soon for them to worry about a liberal uprising.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the Democrats nominate a truly great candidate and Trump's approval ratings are really in the sh!tter, then maybe Abbot will only win by 4-5%. otherwise he's winning by 15-20% easily.

[136or142]

The filing deadline isn't that far away and according to www.politics1.com only three unknowns are running for the Democratic nomination for Texas Governor.

As far as I can tell, the Democrats seem to be focused on the U.S Senate race and the Lieutenant Governor race.

Edit: A 4th Democrat has entered the race in the last few days, Cedric Davis, the former mayor of Balch Springs (population of around 24,000.)  Of the four, I think he clearly has the highest profile.

http://www.politics1.com/tx.htm

[fluffypanther19]

Are the democrats here being honest?!? I can't tell if this thread is a sh*tpost or not. I'm serious, Texas is shifting towards democrats but cmon people the state is still republican as hell.

Well there sure is some optimism afoot, but I think the only thing Texas Republicans have to worry about is losing some seats in the legislature and their House delegation. They have a pretty good lock on statewide offices, and it is probably too soon for them to worry about a liberal uprising.

ok that is reasonable

[erſatz-york]

This thread was a fascinating insight into the male mind.

As a Texan myself, I too can attest that 2018's TX-GOV race is TITANIUM D. After almost three decades of oppression at the hands of Republicans, ANGRY TEXAS WOMEN are ready to cast away their chains by voting Democratic. Abbott will lose by 30 points.

[mvd10]

Abbott will win by a decent margin, but the days of Titanium R Texas probably are over.

[Skill and Chance]

Abbott will win by a decent margin, but the days of Titanium R Texas probably are over.

2018 won't be an issue, but the local party needs to start taking notes from the WV and KY Dems and get ready to defy national Republicans much more than they currently are.  Having a separate brand could be the difference between maintaining their stranglehold on the state for another 25 years vs. getting wiped out during a 2nd Trump term. 

[Figueira]

I can't see Abbott losing unless he becomes massively unpopular for some reason. But it could be relatively close.

[PoliticalJunkie23]

The Democrat wins with 99.7% of the vote because of muh demographics and muh blue wave. That is my expert and totally unbiased analysis of 2018. Just ignore the fact I was dead wrong in 2016. Vote neoliberal!