VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +14 (LV)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:44:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +14 (LV)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +14 (LV)  (Read 3865 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 18, 2017, 11:05:59 AM »

Northam 53 (+2)
Gillespie 39 (-2)
Hyra 2


https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2493

Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2017, 11:09:42 AM »

At least we know they are not hearding.

Thank God for averages!
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2017, 11:09:47 AM »

So Va is going to be interesting on a election night inst it?
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2017, 11:12:46 AM »

Northam is likely up 5-6 points.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,452
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2017, 11:13:29 AM »

Likely R → Safe D

#Atlas
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2017, 11:23:29 AM »

Someone's gonna look stupid in 2 or so weeks. Question is, is it Monmouth or Quinnipiac. My money's on Monmouth.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2017, 11:26:11 AM »

Someone's gonna look stupid in 2 or so weeks. Question is, is it Monmouth or Quinnipiac. My money's on Monmouth.

Monmouth and Quinnipiac actually play each other in basketball in December. Decide it on the court!
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2017, 11:27:11 AM »

Of course, this poll is going to be labeled fake because it doesn't fit the Republican narrative.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2017, 11:29:43 AM »

Great Poll!
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2017, 11:30:33 AM »

Lol this is an outliner northam in his internal polls is up but in the margin of error.
No republican or Democrat is winning Virginia by 14 points this election it’s going to be 3 points max for both Gillespie and northam.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2017, 11:36:13 AM »

N+14 isn’t going to happen, but G+1 likely won’t either. Just throw it all in the average.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2017, 11:36:45 AM »

So...where exactly is the race now? Some polls say Northam has gained. Some polls say that he is still where he was in August, with little change. And some polls see Gillespie gaining ground. Well, at least theres no chance of hearding...
Logged
Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,770
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2017, 11:42:20 AM »

Lol this is an outliner northam in his internal polls is up but in the margin of error.
No republican or Democrat is winning Virginia by 14 points this election it’s going to be 3 points max for both Gillespie and northam.

I thought you said Gillespie would win by exactly 48.73-48.31 or something
48.72 to 48.31 but what I meant by that is it’s at most a 3 point race even that is being to nice to both sides.
Logged
_
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2017, 11:48:37 AM »

Quinnipiac continues it's trend in VA as the outlier.  Average is about Northam +2-4 or around there.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2017, 12:37:49 PM »

Someone's gonna look stupid in 2 or so weeks. Question is, is it Monmouth or Quinnipiac. My money's on Monmouth.


Both.

The only safe prediction
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2017, 01:14:20 PM »

Quinnipiac continues it's trend in VA as the outlier.  Average is about Northam +2-4 or around there.

Well now it’s around Northam +5/6
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,200


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2017, 01:17:42 PM »

The difference between these polls is mostly what sample ends up being used. This was a D+10 sample. The R+1 sample the other day was R+2 sample.

The consistency between these polls is Northam being up among independents. He was down among independents a few months ago.

VA 2013 was D+5
VA 2014 was D+0
VA 2016 was D+7

I'm not sure what the turnout will be in 2016, but I'd imagine it'd be at least D+3 in a Trump off-year. And if Gillepsie is losing independents, that is a bad sign.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2017, 01:21:21 PM »

While there's no scenario where Northam wins by 14 points, the trends in this poll are useful. Their last poll showed Northam +10, and this represents a gain from that, casting doubt on Monmouth's finding that things are getting better than Gillespie. Also this can't be good for Gillespie:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also this:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2017, 01:51:16 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 03:02:07 PM by Brittain33 »

I do not believe that Quinnipiac is a reliable pollster. In the 2016 election, it reported that IA was tied.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2017, 03:40:09 PM »

Well, that's a relief. For a modest Northam lead you'd expect outliers like this and Monmouth.

How hilarious would it be though if this and the WaPo poll actually were accurate, and Northam ended up winning by more than Murphy.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2017, 03:52:20 PM »

Well, that's a relief. For a modest Northam lead you'd expect outliers like this and Monmouth.

How hilarious would it be though if this and the WaPo poll actually were accurate, and Northam ended up winning by more than Murphy.

It'd mean that Democrats probably gain over 10 HoD seats easily.

If Northam wins by double digits, the Democrats would easily take the HoD.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,467
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2017, 09:06:32 AM »

Outlier. Just like the Gillipsie +1 poll. I think the election will end up 50-45% for Northam, possibly 49-44%.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2017, 03:17:30 PM »

Mark my words, as someone who lives in Virginia and NOVA particularly: Northam is probably going to win, but by no more than 6-8% at the most. My prediction right now would be Northam +3.5 in fact.

Neither candidate is going to win by a double digit margin, that is absurd.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2017, 04:50:17 PM »

Mark my words, as someone who lives in Virginia and NOVA particularly: Northam is probably going to win, but by no more than 6-8% at the most. My prediction right now would be Northam +3.5 in fact.

Neither candidate is going to win by a double digit margin, that is absurd.

Seeing a lot of Republican lawn signs?
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2017, 05:01:22 PM »

Mark my words, as someone who lives in Virginia and NOVA particularly: Northam is probably going to win, but by no more than 6-8% at the most. My prediction right now would be Northam +3.5 in fact.

Neither candidate is going to win by a double digit margin, that is absurd.

Seeing a lot of Republican lawn signs?
I've seen a lot of Northam lawn signs, but keep in mind I live in a liberal area.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 13 queries.