UNH-NH Democratic Primary Poll: Sanders 31%, Biden 24%, Warren 13%

[The Other Castro]

Sanders - 31%
Biden - 24%
Warren - 13%
Booker - 6%
O'Malley - 3%
Hickenlooper - 2%
Zuckerberg - 2%
Harris - 1%
Ryan - 1%
Klobuchar - 1%
Gillibrand - 1%
Delaney - 0%

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_fall_primary101817.pdf

[The Other Castro]

For comparison, this was UNH's October 2013 NH primary poll:

Clinton - 64%
Biden - 16%
Warren - 6%
Cuomo - 2%
Patrick - 1%
Bayh <1%
Booker <1%
O'Malley <1%
Warner <1%
Gillibrand 0%
Hickenlooper 0%

[Dr. Arch]

For comparison, this was UNH's October 2013 NH primary poll:

Clinton - 64%
Biden - 16%
Warren - 6%
Cuomo - 2%
Patrick - 1%
Bayh <1%
Booker <1%
O'Malley <1%
Warner <1%
Gillibrand 0%
Hickenlooper 0%

Bernie wasn't even in the picture yet.

[IceSpear]

For comparison, this was UNH's October 2013 NH primary poll:

Clinton - 64%
Biden - 16%
Warren - 6%
Cuomo - 2%
Patrick - 1%
Bayh <1%
Booker <1%
O'Malley <1%
Warner <1%
Gillibrand 0%
Hickenlooper 0%

Bernie wasn't even in the picture yet.

At least Biden is consistent. lol

[The Other Castro]

They also asked an open-ended question of preferences without providing any names. The results were...interesting:

Sanders - 14%
Clinton - 5%
Biden - 5%
Warren -  4%
Joe Kennedy III - 3%
B. Obama - 2%
Others - 10%
Undecided/Refuses - 58%

[Harlow]

They also asked an open-ended question of preferences without providing any names. The results were...interesting:

Sanders - 14%
Clinton - 5%
Biden - 5%
Warren -  4%
Joe Kennedy III - 3%
B. Obama - 2%
Others - 10%
Undecided/Refuses - 58%

The Joe Kennedy result is interesting. It's not his time yet, though. I expect him to raise his profile more for future cycles like '24 or '28.

[Gass3268]

Lol Delaney

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

New Hampshire in the Democratic primary is what Iowa is for the GOP primary.

One word: useless.

Biden I think should have ran in 2016 (and he knows this). But with age not really mattering much, 78 could be the new 68.

I am surprised Warren is so low. I thought she'd have more support/have more name recognition especially being next door in Mass.

Booker and Gillibrand will get more national recognition if/when they announce their candidacy. Warren on the other hand shouldn't have that problem.

I really hope Warren runs as a Trumplican lol!

[IceSpear]

They also asked an open-ended question of preferences without providing any names. The results were...interesting:

Sanders - 14%
Clinton - 5%
Biden - 5%
Warren -  4%
Joe Kennedy III - 3%
B. Obama - 2%
Others - 10%
Undecided/Refuses - 58%

#Hillaryover0
#Hillary2ndplace
#Inevitable

[Sestak]

If Biden's running that close to Sanders in NH, its a very promising sign for him (and by extension for the Democratic Party)–But it's a bit too early to draw anything too meaningful.

[Liberalrocks]

They also asked an open-ended question of preferences without providing any names. The results were...interesting:

Sanders - 14%
Clinton - 5%
Biden - 5%
Warren -  4%
Joe Kennedy III - 3%
B. Obama - 2%
Others - 10%
Undecided/Refuses - 58%

#Hillaryover0
#Hillary2ndplace
#Inevitable

It’s happening lol !

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

They also asked an open-ended question of preferences without providing any names. The results were...interesting:

Sanders - 14%
Clinton - 5%
Biden - 5%
Warren -  4%
Joe Kennedy III - 3%
B. Obama - 2%
Others - 10%
Undecided/Refuses - 58%

#Hillaryover0
#Hillary2ndplace
#Inevitable

It’s happening lol !

dont give her any ideas! lol

[Rookie Yinzer]

If Biden's running that close to Sanders in NH, its a very promising sign for him (and by extension for the Democratic Party)–But it's a bit too early to draw anything too meaningful.

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming that the 2020 field has ~20 candidates, and the networks once again try to limit debate participation to just the top ~10 candidates in the polls, I do wonder if O'Malley can actually just coast on his minimal name recognition that he developed from his 2016 run to qualify for the early debates.  I mean, is a Tim Ryan or a Chris Murphy really going to manage to be able to boost their name recognition high enough to manage 3% in the polls by August 2019?  Maybe, but probably not if there are 20 other candidates running.

[Mr. Morden]

They also polled the Republican primary:

Trump 47%
Someone Else 23%
[don’t know yet] 30%

Here’s what it was for Obama 8 years ago:

Obama 64%
Someone Else 5%
[don’t know yet] 30%

And here are the crosstabs on the Dem. primary matchup:

Democrats: Sanders +9
Independents: Sanders +9
liberal: Sanders +9
moderate: Sanders +6
conservative: Biden +11
age 18-34: Sanders +6
age 35-49: Sanders +7
age 50-64: Sanders +15
age 65+: Warren +3 (over Biden)
men: Sanders +8
women: Sanders +7
1st CD: Sanders +13
2nd CD: Biden/Sanders tie

Also, Warren has a big gender gap.  She’s at 6% among men and 18% among women.  She also does much better among olds than youngs, in an inversion of the support for Sanders.  She’s at 27% among those over 65, and only 12% among those under 35.

On the Republican side, you have….

Republicans:
Trump 51%
someone else 19%

Independents voting Republican:
someone else 35%
Trump 30%

Also…

Age 18-34:
someone else 67%
Trump 15%

Age 65+:
Trump 69%
someone else 20%

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm surprised Sanders is only at 31% and Warren is only at 13%. Both should be doing better, with an essential home state advantage (much like Obama had in 2008 in Iowa).

[Kleine Scheiße]

O'Malley - 3%

For comparison, this was UNH's October 2013 NH primary poll:

O'Malley <1%

O'Mentum!

[Sestak]

I'm surprised Sanders is only at 31% and Warren is only at 13%. Both should be doing better, with an essential home state advantage (much like Obama had in 2008 in Iowa).

Yeah. That's why, if this poll is accurate, it's huge for Biden. (well, as huge as any poll can be three years out.)

[Shadows]

I'm surprised Sanders is only at 31% and Warren is only at 13%. Both should be doing better, with an essential home state advantage (much like Obama had in 2008 in Iowa).

Sanders & Warren both won't run together. I think 1 will coalesce most of the votes. Sanders has the age thing which is dragging him down. Most people don't know if he will run, if he will too old. If he announces a run, then you have to see polls after 2-3 months.

Sanders has a reasonably big organizations, online podcasts, local officials, an enviable email list & has actually run a decent campaign getting 46% of the pledged delegates. A 30%+ in 8-10 person race is fantastic. This is also decent for Biden.

[henster]

I just can't see Sanders & Warren both running.