What would a map look like if Trump DID win the popular vote?

[morgankingsley]

Obviously he would have won New Hampshire and Minnesota. What other states do you think he could have picked up? Probably Virginia and Colorado as well. What do you think

[Mr. Smith]

Obviously he would have won New Hampshire and Minnesota. What other states do you think he could have picked up? Probably Virginia and Colorado as well. What do you think

No, Virginia's out of reach unless he gets a majority too.

Nevada, which he should've won, certainly more likely than Michigan at the time would have flipped.

Maine probably would go too, besides ME-01 anyway.

[Lechasseur]

Obviously he would have won New Hampshire and Minnesota. What other states do you think he could have picked up? Probably Virginia and Colorado as well. What do you think

No, Virginia's out of reach unless he gets a majority too.

Nevada, which he should've won, certainly more likely than Michigan at the time would have flipped.

Maine probably would go too, besides ME-01 anyway.

This

[bagelman]

328-210

[President Johnson]

Could be the same if you have Trump at 58-59% in Texas, at 65% in Utah, and Hillary only at 55% in New York and California.

[DPKdebator]

328-210

This is the most plausible scenario by far. It's what the result looks like if the real PV is flipped (4.18% R swing).

[wxtransit]

If you assume a uniform national swing of about 2.1% to the GOP (from Clinton), then:

Businessman Donald Trump/Governor Mike Pence - 328 (48.2%) +22 EV, 2.1% PV from OTL
Former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton/Senator Tim Kaine - 210 (46.1%) -22 EV, 2.1% PV from OTL


Changes from OTL (50% means anywhere from 50.0-59.9%, so 50% dosen't necessarily make the race close, unless otherwise noted):
Arizona from 40% GOP to 50%
California from 60% Dem to 50%
Colorado stays 40% Dem, but the race is within 1 point
Florida from 40% GOP to 50%
Idaho from 50% GOP to 60%
Louisiana from 50% GOP to 60%
Maryland from 60% Dem to 50%
Massachusetts from 60% Dem to 50%
STATE FLIP: Minnesota from 40% Dem to 40% GOP
STATE FLIP: Nevada from 40% Dem to 40% GOP
STATE FLIP: New Hampshire from 40% Dem to 40% GOP
North Carolina from 40% GOP to 50%
Oregon from 50% Dem to 40%
Pennsylvania from 40% GOP to 50%
Virginia stays 40% Dem, but the race is within 1 point
West Virginia from 60% GOP to 70%
Wyoming from 60% GOP to 70%
STATE FLIP: Maine at-large from 40% Dem to 40% GOP
Nebraska at-large from 50% GOP to 60%

Of course, this estimates a national uniform swing, the likes of which are impossibly rare in occurrence. Take this with a grain of salt.