OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[IceSpear]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pelosi has been leader way too long, longer than should have, and she will step down should the Democrats fail to crack the GOP 230 mark.  A new leader would be anointed.

[Badger]

Danny O'Connor is trying to pull a Conor Lamb. Only problem, Balderson is no Saccone and O'Connor is no Conor.

[136or142]

Danny O'Connor is trying to pull a Conor Lamb. Only problem, Balderson is no Saccone and O'Connor is no Conor.

Have you seen Balderson's 'I'm with Trump anti immigration commercial'?

Balderson is no different than Saccone.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

That pisses me off too, but it's a testament to how Republicans are able to hammer their narratives into the skulls of ordinary gullible Americans.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

That pisses me off too, but it's a testament to how Republicans are able to hammer their narratives into the skulls of ordinary gullible Americans.

They are just taking advantage of Americans's inherent sexism and misogyny, and of the fact that the press corps is full of Halperins, Roses, and Thrushes who are all too eager to propagate their message.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Danny O'Connor is trying to pull a Conor Lamb. Only problem, Balderson is no Saccone and O'Connor is no Conor.

Have you seen Balderson's 'I'm with Trump anti immigration commercial'?

Balderson is no different than Saccone.

On policy maybe, but he is day and night on the trail, and that makes a big difference.

[Xing]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

It’s just another example of how Republicans are more adept at controlling the narrative, and forcing Democrats to posture themselves in awkward ways to try and get votes. They do this with many issues. They “warn” Americans that Democrats want to take their guns away, raise taxes on everyone, have open borders, etc. And what do Democrats do? They run scared/back away. “No, no, I fully support the second amendment! I want to lower taxes on almost everyone! I agree, we do have to protect our borders!” While Republicans never deny/cower away from the fact that they fully support the NRA and will do nothing to directly address our gun crisis, lower taxes on the wealthy, and deport millions. It’s no wonder Democrats are seen as spineless and lacking in any principles. Republicans dominated the narrative on gay marriage for decades, and Democrats let them do it (how many Democrats said “I believe marriage is between a man and a woman” before public opinion polls showed support for gay marriage at 50%?)

Democrats need to grow a pair and not allow Republicans to dominate the narrative by turning Democratic positions/politicians (or even just words sometimes) into boogeymen. They should wear Republican attacks on their ideas as a badge of honor, and stand up for them while showing that they work.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

It’s just another example of how Republicans are more adept at controlling the narrative, and forcing Democrats to posture themselves in awkward ways to try and get votes. They do this with many issues. They “warn” Americans that Democrats want to take their guns away, raise taxes on everyone, have open borders, etc. And what do Democrats do? They run scared/back away. “No, no, I fully support the second amendment! I want to lower taxes on almost everyone! I agree, we do have to protect our borders!” While Republicans never deny/cower away from the fact that they fully support the NRA and will do nothing to directly address our gun crisis, lower taxes on the wealthy, and deport millions. It’s no wonder Democrats are seen as spineless and lacking in any principles. Republicans dominated the narrative on gay marriage for decades, and Democrats let them do it (how many Democrats said “I believe marriage is between a man and a woman” before public opinion polls showed support for gay marriage at 50%?)

Democrats need to grow a pair and not allow Republicans to dominate the narrative by turning Democratic positions/politicians (or even just words sometimes) into boogeymen. They should wear Republican attacks on their ideas as a badge of honor, and stand up for them while showing that they work.

What whining.

The Democrats control the narative on spending on almost every domestic spending program.  In fact the next thing to eternal life is a domestic spending program.

[Badger]

I get why Democrats in more conservative territory are disavowing Pelosi, but it kind of annoys me that Republicans are allowed to get away with marching in lockstep behind Ryan/McConnell no matter how Democratic their district/state is, even though some polls show them as even more unpopular than Pelosi. It just strikes me as buying into and surrendering against a GOP narrative, when you could instead use their own tactics against them.

In fact, the only time you see Republicans disavowing Ryan/McConnell is in primaries because they're deemed as Soros-funded globalist cocaine snorting RINOs, lol.

It’s just another example of how Republicans are more adept at controlling the narrative, and forcing Democrats to posture themselves in awkward ways to try and get votes. They do this with many issues. They “warn” Americans that Democrats want to take their guns away, raise taxes on everyone, have open borders, etc. And what do Democrats do? They run scared/back away. “No, no, I fully support the second amendment! I want to lower taxes on almost everyone! I agree, we do have to protect our borders!” While Republicans never deny/cower away from the fact that they fully support the NRA and will do nothing to directly address our gun crisis, lower taxes on the wealthy, and deport millions. It’s no wonder Democrats are seen as spineless and lacking in any principles. Republicans dominated the narrative on gay marriage for decades, and Democrats let them do it (how many Democrats said “I believe marriage is between a man and a woman” before public opinion polls showed support for gay marriage at 50%?)

Democrats need to grow a pair and not allow Republicans to dominate the narrative by turning Democratic positions/politicians (or even just words sometimes) into boogeymen. They should wear Republican attacks on their ideas as a badge of honor, and stand up for them while showing that they work.

What whining.

The Democrats control the narative on spending on almost every domestic spending program.  In fact the next thing to eternal life is a domestic spending program.

And with that, you get put on ignore long after you should've been.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think O'Connor's anti-Pelosi pledge is a mixed move at best. Plenty of Columbus Democrats aren't going to be happy about it, but non-Ohio posters seem to underestimate how conservative Delaware, Richland, and Muskingum are.

Tim Ryan's involvement in boosting O'Connor could also definitely be at play here. But unlike some other Democratic candidates — IA-03's Pete D'Allessandro, for example — O'Connor hasn't specified Tim as his would-be leader.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think O'Connor's anti-Pelosi pledge is a mixed move at best. Plenty of Columbus Democrats aren't going to be happy about it, but non-Ohio posters seem to underestimate how conservative Delaware, Richland, and Muskingum are.

Tim Ryan's involvement in boosting O'Connor could also definitely be at play here. But unlike some other Democratic candidates — IA-03's Pete D'Allessandro, for example — O'Connor hasn't specified Tim as his would-be leader.

I still think this will be close, but I think the anti-Pelosi ads suggest that O'Connor's campaign is a little nervous at the moment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats who take that pledge will end up voting for her anyways, and in OH, O'Connor won't be punished

[heatcharger]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

[wjx987]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

If true, that's amazing news for Brown. He didn't carry OH-12 when he won Ohio by 6 in 2012. He's doing really well statewide if he's carrying OH-12 by a margin that large. Hence, I kinda doubt this poll's accuracy.

[ON Progressive]

I don't know about you, but I highly doubt 52% of the electorate will be 65 or older.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Is Biden going to vist OH-12 at all?

[Xing]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

[Landslide Lyndon]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

And Trump's numbers are a bit gaudy for such a Rockefeller Republican district.
Didn't the other polls show him just breaking even?

[ON Progressive]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

And Trump's numbers are a bit gaudy for such a Rockefeller Republican district.
Didn't the other polls show him just breaking even?

PPPs poll had Trump approval at 49-47, Monmouth had it at 48-47.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think voters are buying the fact he pledged not to vote for Pelosi as Speaker

[Oryxslayer]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

Well, Cordray has always ran far ahead of Generic D in the Columbus Metro. Considering Clinton's Delaware margins, it isn't totally out of the picture that he ties/wins the county while still losing statewide.

[LimoLiberal]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

Well, Cordray has always ran far ahead of Generic D in the Columbus Metro. Considering Clinton's Delaware margins, it isn't totally out of the picture that he ties/wins the county while still losing statewide.

The 2010 AG race where he lost to Dewine by a point indicates that he lost the current OH-12: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=39&year=2010&f=0&off=9&elect=0

Of course, East Ohio has trended significantly away from the Democratic brand in general while the suburbs of Cincinatti and Columbus have shifted left.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The sample is 54% republican / 26% dem / 20% independents

Is that close to  the registration in this district?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The sample is 54% republican / 26% dem / 20% independents

Is that close to  the registration in this district?

No