OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

He's completely correct.

There might be enough provisional/remaining absentee votes to get in into the recount margin, but really that's all we are waiting for.

Recounts rarely flip the results unless the margin is insanely close to begin with, like within 0.1%. But yeah, either way, we want to make sure all votes are counted.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will O'Connor run again in November? I think he can win then due to slightly higher turnout.

Yes. And higher turnout will benefit GOP.... he also won’t have the same amount of resources with 434 other races going on.

Higher turnout usually works in the Dems favor?

Maybe in a statewide race or a fairly drawn district. The Democratic area overperformed and the rural red areas underperformed turnout wise and he still lost. Turnout being UP all across the district won’t help him.

[Tekken_Guy]

Will O'Connor run again in November? I think he can win then due to slightly higher turnout.

Yes. And higher turnout will benefit GOP.... he also won’t have the same amount of resources with 434 other races going on.

Higher turnout usually works in the Dems favor?

Maybe in a statewide race or a fairly drawn district. The Democratic area overperformed and the rural red areas underperformed turnout wise and he still lost. Turnout being UP all across the district won’t help him.

The problem is he couldn't move the outer suburbs enough in his favor. Kasich's involvement helped bring Balderson voters to the polls on Election Day and lessen the swings in Delaware.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CNN actually had a good article on the outcome of this race and did not scream red wave:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/08/politics/balderson-trump-2018/index.html

[Brittain33]

Both Manchin and Ojeda would have beaten Balderson.

Hard to imagine either one’s message being relevant to Franklin and Delaware County. Economic development and rural isolation is not a problem there.

[DINGO Joe]

Both Manchin and Ojeda would have beaten Balderson.

Hard to imagine either one’s message being relevant to Franklin and Delaware County. Economic development and rural isolation is not a problem there.

Well, since it is a heavily gerrymandered district it is a problem in the rural economic declining parts of the district, but yes Ojeda and Manchin are not fits for this district.

[Pyro]

CNN actually had a good article on the outcome of this race and did not scream red wave:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/08/politics/balderson-trump-2018/index.html

Even though I believe few will remember this election in three months, the idea that some Republicans may now be less likely to turn out with this inane 'Red Wave' theory playing in the back of their minds may just be an important factor in transforming a +31 Dem Gain into a +65.

[Zaybay]

CNN actually had a good article on the outcome of this race and did not scream red wave:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/08/politics/balderson-trump-2018/index.html

Even though I believe few will remember this election in three months, the idea that some Republicans may now be less likely to turn out with this inane 'Red Wave' theory playing in the back of their minds may just be an important factor in transforming a +31 Dem Gain into a +65.

[erſatz-york]

We won't know who "won" this race for another 2 weeks, because the 8.500 remaining provisional and mail ballots are only counted 10 days after the vote ...

King TRUMP has congratulated the winner Balderson, who was down 64-31 before his majesty came to OH. He has spoken, it is over.

Is the gaslighting getting to me? I seem to recall that Balderson was up just a little in the polling overall...

It's a joke, you goddamned idiot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1027305385944932356

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1027305385944932356

That's some counting error.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1027305385944932356

That's some counting error.

If true, that means O'Connor only needs to win about 55% of absentees and 70-80% of provisionals. Still unattainable.

[Orwell]

NEVER GIVE UP NEVER GO DOWN!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Will O'Connor run again in November? I think he can win then due to slightly higher turnout.

Yes. And higher turnout will benefit GOP.... he also won’t have the same amount of resources with 434 other races going on.

Higher turnout usually works in the Dems favor?

If O'Connor had won, he'd  have had a shot in the fall, but this is historically GOP territory.  This isn't areas where there was ancestral loyalty or where union voters could make the difference.

Here's the difference between Democrats and Republicans.  Democrats are congratulating themselves for the good fight they put up, while Republicans won by a hair and act like they have a mandate.  (I believe they'll win; those provisional ballots aren't likely to shift the vote, although it's possible.)  Something to thing about. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is my first time posting in this thread after all the election day votes were counted. I don't think O'Connor is going to be able to pull ahead from the absentee and provisional ballots. He has a better case to make in not conceding than Saccone or Moore did since those outstanding votes tend to favor Democrats. But it's still a real stretch.

As far as I'm concerned Balderson won in an absolutely pathetic way. I predicted that this race would have Balderson winning by 5, and damn was I off with that! I really thought that the election day vote would overwhelm whatever early vote lead O'Connor had. O'Connor really has nothing to be ashamed about though, and neither does the Democratic Party as a whole, in spite of the conservative gloating that we have seen. It just goes to show how out of touch they are. You wouldn't see Democrats gloating if Jim Himes' district (D+7 in comparison to OH-12 being R+7) was won by another Democrat by less than 1%. If you asked me a month ago, hell, even a week ago, I never would have expected the Republican to win like this, and Balderson was a better candidate than Saccone and especially Moore. This seat should not have been competitive and is pretty much assurance that the wave is coming. Steve Chabot should be wetting his pants right about now. Ohio truly may not be a lost cause for the Democratic Party. If Cordray wins the Governorship and can somehow end the Ohio GOP's gerrymandering of the districts, it could make the subsequent congressional elections even better for the Democrats. I do worry that the Ohio legislature could pull some shenanigans to make early voting more difficult though, now that they have seen how much it benefited O'Connor. It's right up their alley to do that. Or maybe I'm just a cynic.

There really wasn't as much at stake here for the Democrats than for the Republicans. We lost this one but it ultimately doesn't matter. Balderson will hold the district for about three months and then have to face O'Connor again. If O'Connor can replicate what he accomplished here and improve even just marginally (while taking higher turnout for both parties into account) he could potentially usurp Balderson after all. O'Connor has name recognition now and Balderson is going to be a fairly weak incumbent. It could still go either way in November, but I would now consider it a tossup.

Also, I learned on election night by watching the news that Pat Tiberi's name is pronounced "tea berry." I always thought it was "tie berry. Well either way, hopefully Balderson at least will be a better representative than he was.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I know there will be some type of Atlas red wave.

But I feel it will not reach AR 2, which is my premier race.  In spite of Little Rock I believe the collar counties will pull French Hill over the finish line.  Hill is my favorite to replace Boozman in 2022.

So I feel good today. 

[Bidenworth2020]

I know there will be some type of Atlas red wave.

But I feel it will not reach AR 2, which is my premier race.  In spite of Little Rock I believe the collar counties will pull French Hill over the finish line.  Hill is my favorite to replace Boozman in 2022.

So I feel good today. 

I dont think so, no. And Hill is a strong incumbent. Clarke isn't a bad candidate though. Lean R

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

[Bidenworth2020]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

[BudgieForce]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

You do realize the odds of the absentees being so lopsided that O'Connor wins are basically nil, right? It would probably be wiser for him to spend his money on November rather than on challenging the results. On the other hand he might realize that he has lost but understands he can raise large amounts of money from resistance idiots who are still in denial, kind of like the Stein recount

[Sestak]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

You do realize the odds of the absentees being so lopsided that O'Connor wins are basically nil, right? It would probably be wiser for him to spend his money on November rather than on challenging the results. On the other hand he might realize that he has lost but understands he can raise large amounts of money from resistance idiots who are still in denial, kind of like the Stein recount

Nah. If the election's called and there's no margin for an auto recount, expect him to concede quickly.

If the margin's under .5%, though, he'll let the recount go through. As would literally anyone in that position.

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

You do realize the odds of the absentees being so lopsided that O'Connor wins are basically nil, right? It would probably be wiser for him to spend his money on November rather than on challenging the results. On the other hand he might realize that he has lost but understands he can raise large amounts of money from resistance idiots who are still in denial, kind of like the Stein recount

Nah. If the election's called and there's no margin for an auto recount, expect him to concede quickly.

If the margin's under .5%, though, he'll let the recount go through. As would literally anyone in that position.

Even if you're right, I think it's likely he milks this for everything he can get, if the 2000, 2004, and 2016 elections show is anything it's that much of his base doesn't take losing with grace.

[ON Progressive]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

You do realize the odds of the absentees being so lopsided that O'Connor wins are basically nil, right? It would probably be wiser for him to spend his money on November rather than on challenging the results. On the other hand he might realize that he has lost but understands he can raise large amounts of money from resistance idiots who are still in denial, kind of like the Stein recount

Nah. If the election's called and there's no margin for an auto recount, expect him to concede quickly.

If the margin's under .5%, though, he'll let the recount go through. As would literally anyone in that position.

Even if you're right, I think it's likely he milks this for everything he can get, if the 2000, 2004, and 2016 elections show is anything it's that much of his base doesn't take losing with grace.

Lmao. I remember Romney's campaign whining when all the networks called Ohio for Obama when it was clear Obama would win Ohio.