OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

Oddly, Kasich did not set the special election on the same date as the regular election primary. Both the regular election and special election will hold their primary on May 8th, but the special election will take place on August 7th.

Makes sense. A May 8 general would be cutting it a bit close, wouldn't it?

A little, but it's what he did when Boehner resigned, and it would screw over any chance of a Democrat winning – which is already unlikely, even if it looks like Goyal is going to get in – simply due to turnout.

[Figueira]

Oddly, Kasich did not set the special election on the same date as the regular election primary. Both the regular election and special election will hold their primary on May 8th, but the special election will take place on August 7th.

Makes sense. A May 8 general would be cutting it a bit close, wouldn't it?

A little, but it's what he did when Boehner resigned, and it would screw over any chance of a Democrat winning – which is already unlikely, even if it looks like Goyal is going to get in – simply due to turnout.

Boehner resigned in October. Tiberi is resigning in January.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jay Goyal will not run in the special election for OH-12.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jay Goyal will not run in the special election for OH-12.

[Bidenworth2020]

Jay Goyal will not run in the special election for OH-12.

[BuckeyeNut]

Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor is running. This sets up a redux of sorts from the 2016 primaries in Franklin County, where Sheriff Zack Scott and his supporters were voted out of office for not supporting the powers that be and their choice for Mayor. The previous County Recorder was one of Scott’s supporters and lost to O’Connor in 2016.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor is running. This sets up a redux of sorts from the 2016 primaries in Franklin County, where Sheriff Zack Scott and his supporters were voted out of office for not supporting the powers that be and their choice for Mayor. The previous County Recorder was one of Scott’s supporters and lost to O’Connor in 2016.

He'll probably still lose, but hopefully he can at least give us a respectable nominee.

[BuckeyeNut]

Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor is running. This sets up a redux of sorts from the 2016 primaries in Franklin County, where Sheriff Zack Scott and his supporters were voted out of office for not supporting the powers that be and their choice for Mayor. The previous County Recorder was one of Scott’s supporters and lost to O’Connor in 2016.

He'll probably still lose, but hopefully he can at least give us a respectable nominee.

Yeah, I guess. O'Connor is a much better man than Scott, but I'm a little peeved at these rising stars running for Congress only after serving a year into their first term in any elected office.

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting development: while the Franklin County establishment continues to rally in support of O’Connor, former Congresswomen Mary Jo Kilroy — the last Democrat to represent any of the land now in OH-12 in the house — is supporting John Russell. Also, O’Connor outed himself as the only Democrat running who doesn’t support single payer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting development: while the Franklin County establishment continues to rally in support of O’Connor, former Congresswomen Mary Jo Kilroy — the last Democrat to represent any of the land now in OH-12 in the house — is supporting John Russell. Also, O’Connor outed himself as the only Democrat running who doesn’t support single payer.

I heard about that the Kilroy endorsement; Russell’s been using her congressional campaign data to do phone banking.  As for O’Connor, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is doing that b/c attacking a Republican for opposing Obamacare could be pretty effective here (at least compared to some of the other available lines).  Almost everyone I’ve talked to about Obamacare thinks it was either universal healthcare or (less common) the same as the Canadian system.  Many voters think the issue boils down to a two option choice between either universal healthcare or a 100% private system and that everything else is just another name for one of those things.

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting development: while the Franklin County establishment continues to rally in support of O’Connor, former Congresswomen Mary Jo Kilroy — the last Democrat to represent any of the land now in OH-12 in the house — is supporting John Russell. Also, O’Connor outed himself as the only Democrat running who doesn’t support single payer.

I heard about that the Kilroy endorsement; Russell’s been using her congressional campaign data to do phone banking.  As for O’Connor, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is doing that b/c attacking a Republican for opposing Obamacare could be pretty effective here (at least compared to some of the other available lines).  Almost everyone I’ve talked to about Obamacare thinks it was either universal healthcare or (less common) the same as the Canadian system.  Many voters think the issue boils down to a two option choice between either universal healthcare or a 100% private system and that everything else is just another name for one of those things.

I knew he was doing that, but was under the impression he obtained her list when it looked like he was going to be the only competent candidate running against Scott. So while not entirely surprised at her endorsement, I am a little. No secret I support Russell — it’s right in my signature — but I think he is a stronger candidate than he is being given credit for. Still probably loses the primary — and I don’t think any Democrat other than Goyal could really pull off a win in the general — but I’m rooting for him in any future endeavors. I know he lost the state house race last cycle, but he would be a great candidate for Delaware County Commissioner. Or the State Senate District 19.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Ohio primaries are just days away, and this race is still a sh!t show. There are something like 17 candiates running for this seat, with several noteworthy contenders on both sides

On the Republican side, you have frontrunners Senator Troy Balderson of Zanesville and Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan of Liberty Township. Senator Kevin Bacon of Blendon Township, Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O’Brien, and economist Tim Kane of Dublin are all second tier candidates who will mostly serve to pull Balderson and Leneghan down. There are another five (!) Republicans running, but they’re gadflies who won’t capture any significant vote share.

Balderson and Leneghan are both hard conservative, but as in the primary to replace Boehner, we see a nasty intra-party dynamic emerging. Leneghan has been endorsed by Congressman Jim Jordan and the Freedom caucus, while Balderson’s campaign is enjoying generous financial support from former Congressman Pat Tiberi, who had held this seat since 2001, and represents the Kasich-wing of the Ohio Republican Party. (Don’t be fooled, Balderson still wants to build the wall.)

O’Brien and Bacon represent the Kasich-wing as well, even if they weren’t chosen by the establishment, while Kane is somewhere in between Leneghan and Balderson. He’s more of a grassroots figure, and has enjoyed support from figures like Carly Fiorina and George Schultz. At this point in time, I would wager Leneghan is favored, though whoever wins this prinary could well do so with less than 30% of the vote. When this thread was started late last summer, I said this seat was a waste for Democrats, but in this environment, that’s no longer true. Tilt R worst, Tilt D if Leneghan becomes the Republican nominee.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls close shortly, giving this a bump to act as a discussion thread.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/994000922689855489

[BuckeyeNut]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real dhame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real dhame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

[BuckeyeNut]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

Eh, I think Russell or O'Connor would've wiped the floor with any of the Republicans in the Franklin County portion, honestly.  I'd also argue that Franklin County could be as much as 30-33% of the electorate in the special (certainly in the GE) due to massive anti-Republican turnout from affluent, educated suburbanites.  I really can't stress enough how toxic Trump and the Republican brand are here atm, even among folks who voted for Trump in 2018; Gahanna, Dublin, New Albany, and Worthington are gonna see NoVA circa 2017-sized swings, the Columbus, Clintonville, and Bexley portions were always going to give the the Democratic nominee huge margins, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if even Westerville ends up giving O'Connor a low double-digit margin.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Balderson didn't come within single-digits of winning a single city or township in the Franklin County portion of the district. 

[Badger]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

Eh, I think Russell or O'Connor would've wiped the floor with any of the Republicans in the Franklin County portion, honestly.  I'd also argue that Franklin County could be as much as 30-33% of the electorate in the special (certainly in the GE) due to massive anti-Republican turnout from affluent, educated suburbanites.  I really can't stress enough how toxic Trump and the Republican brand are here atm, even among folks who voted for Trump in 2018; Gahanna, Dublin, New Albany, and Worthington are gonna see NoVA circa 2017-sized swings, the Columbus, Clintonville, and Bexley portions were always going to give the the Democratic nominee huge margins, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if even Westerville ends up giving O'Connor a low double-digit margin.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Balderson didn't come within single-digits of winning a single city or township in the Franklin County portion of the district. 

Even New Albany and Dublin? Seems a bit of a stretch. It wouldn't shock me much if Balderson won either.

Remember, he's not a Trumpy conservative, but more of a standard Central Ohio Republican (i.e. still quite conservative, but not a bomb throwing nut about it).

[BuckeyeNut]

Balderson is running on build the wall, so even if he isn’t a Freedumb Caucus type, he’s embracing Trump.

And Bexley definitely isnt in OH-12. It’s in OH-03.

[Tender Branson]

I'm going to rate this as "Likely R".

This will be a real test for November, because the retiring Republican is not a sex offender or racist, like the others who stepped down.

It remains to be seen if O'Connor can turn into the Democrats Next SuperLamb or not ...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Disappointing but not surprising. FCDP’s ego got in the way of letting this race be run on the merits, which ks a real shame. Danny O’Connor couldn’t even win the Franklin County portions of OH-12 when he won countywide in his race for Recorder last cycle. The real surprise is that Balderson won — albeit barely.

Tilt R.

I’d argue O’Connor was the best candidate running; the bigger problem was that Goyal didn’t run.

I dunno, I still think John Russell was strongest. He raised over $100k on small dollars alone with O'Connor sucking up a lot of air in the room, and while O'Connor lost the Franklin County portions of OH-12, Russell outran Clinton by at least 7% in OH-HD-68, and by up to 20% more in some areas. Come the GE, Franklin County is only 25% of OH-12, and O'Connor's not even that strong there.

Goyal would have been stronger than Russell, though obviously.

Also, evidently, Jeremy Blake was looking here? That would have been interesting.

Eh, I think Russell or O'Connor would've wiped the floor with any of the Republicans in the Franklin County portion, honestly.  I'd also argue that Franklin County could be as much as 30-33% of the electorate in the special (certainly in the GE) due to massive anti-Republican turnout from affluent, educated suburbanites.  I really can't stress enough how toxic Trump and the Republican brand are here atm, even among folks who voted for Trump in 2018; Gahanna, Dublin, New Albany, and Worthington are gonna see NoVA circa 2017-sized swings, the Columbus, Clintonville, and Bexley portions were always going to give the the Democratic nominee huge margins, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if even Westerville ends up giving O'Connor a low double-digit margin.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Balderson didn't come within single-digits of winning a single city or township in the Franklin County portion of the district. 

Even New Albany and Dublin? Seems a bit of a stretch. It wouldn't shock me much if Balderson won either.

Remember, he's not a Trumpy conservative, but more of a standard Central Ohio Republican (i.e. still quite conservative, but not a bomb throwing nut about it).

New Albany and Westerville are possible single-digit losses for Balderson, but I’d be pretty surprised if he loses by less than 10% in Dublin.  The swing there is going to be insane, I think.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I thought Balderson was a tea party guy who was begrudgingly embraced by the establishment because he was at least less crazy than Lenaghan.

[BuckeyeNut]

I thought Balderson was a tea party guy who was begrudgingly embraced by the establishment because he was at least less crazy than Leneghan.

Yeah. Basically. Bacon was the Kasich candidate in the race, but Tiberi and Kasich wings went for Balderson because he was much stronger out of the gate. Even though FCRP endorsed Bacon.

[Tender Branson]

New PPP poll:

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45% - Troy Balderson (R)
43% - Danny O'Connor (D)

https://de.scribd.com/document/379408429/Read-ECU-poll-results

Was Trump+11, so a swing of 9 points here.