OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 107119 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: October 18, 2017, 10:54:13 PM »
« edited: August 07, 2018, 06:40:11 PM by Virginiá »

GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi (OH-12) is quitting.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/us/politics/tiberi-republican-resign-ohio.html?_r=0

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Results for OH-12 special election: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-ohio-special-house-election-district-12.html
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2017, 10:57:26 PM »

All of these retirements do indicate an incoming wave.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2017, 11:01:14 PM »

Oh, wow, this might legitimately spell disaster for the GOP. A special election victory for the Democrats is way likelier in OH-12 than it was in Georgia, Kansas, and South Carolina.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2017, 11:21:09 PM »

Troy Balderson (Zanesville) could be the nominee for the Republicans. For Democrats, I would like to see Jennifer Brunner or Michael Coleman run here (Columbus isn't that far away...).
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2017, 11:39:25 PM »

Oh. My. God.

There's a nobody running on the Dems side. And I doubt this seat is flippable even in a wave, but a real candidate should get in.

Coleman and Brunner would be terrible candidates here, and the district actually does include some of the northern bits of Columbus proper.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2017, 11:40:46 PM »

He hasn't even resigned yet and the special hasn't been called, so I think Democrats have time to find a candidate lol.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2017, 06:01:16 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 07:13:59 AM by Brittain33 »

A leader of the House Ways and Means committee resigns early. Tax reform must be going swimmingly!
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136or142
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2017, 06:16:23 AM »

Oh. My. God.

There's a nobody running on the Dems side. And I doubt this seat is flippable even in a wave, but a real candidate should get in.

Coleman and Brunner would be terrible candidates here, and the district actually does include some of the northern bits of Columbus proper.

According to www.politics1.com, 3 Democrats were running even before this potential retirement of Tiberi

Ohio 12
Ed Albertson (D) - Businessman, Army Veteran & '16 Nominee
John Peters (D)
Doug Wilson (D) - Ex-Ashley Mayor, Respiratory Care Practitioner & Artist
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2017, 07:03:16 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 07:14:11 AM by Brittain33 »

A leader of the House Ways and Means committee resigns early. Tax reform must be going swimmingly!
The writing is on the wall, and Rs don't want to put up with the circus anymore.

This is an R+7 district, and it only swung towards Trump by less than a point. I would be an uphill battles for Ds, though it is possible to see an upset in a low-turnout special election.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2017, 08:21:29 AM »

Oh. My. God.

There's a nobody running on the Dems side. And I doubt this seat is flippable even in a wave, but a real candidate should get in.

Coleman and Brunner would be terrible candidates here, and the district actually does include some of the northern bits of Columbus proper.
It's only an R+7 district. Tiberi was clearly a strong incumbent, but now that the seat is open this seat seems winnable in a special election. It's the most D friendly district of all special elections so far. Given the past special election results I'd call this race Lean R.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2017, 09:03:23 AM »

I recognize there were three candidates who filed to run against Tiberi in 2018, I've met two of them, but they're all Some Dudes, including Doug Wilson. The Democrat's bench here is absolute crap, and we aren't going to take this. If Chabot resigned, then we'd be cooking with gas. Though I suppose the Democratic bench has been just as crap, if not worse, in the other special election districts.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2017, 09:24:00 AM »

a special election would most likely run in conjunction with the primary election, making it less likely for any kind of democrat pickup
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2017, 09:25:39 AM »

also, I feel this has less to do with washington culture, trump etc. and more to do with the fact his career is toast. Tiberi was expected to run for senate and basically never trumped his way out of relevancy, this stalling, 6 years before another senate opportunity, and a chance to make a lot of money is probably what sealed this.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2017, 09:33:28 AM »

RJ's got a good point. Tiberi missed his chance to take the Chairmam of Ways and Means when Ryan become speaker, and the Trump wave marked the end of the Kasich-wing of the Ohio GOP. Tiberi's resignation is their death rattle.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2017, 09:42:00 AM »

Tiberi makes it official: He will leave Congress by January 31, 2018.

https://twitter.com/alexnbcnews/status/921015152924872705
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VPH
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2017, 10:29:45 AM »

Could State Rep David Leland run? Pretty sure his district narrowly overlaps with OH-12.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2017, 10:38:20 AM »

Tiberi is leaving Congress. Wow.

It is still Lean R, but it shows that Republicans could face challenges in 2018 especially in the House.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2017, 10:55:38 AM »

Could State Rep David Leland run? Pretty sure his district narrowly overlaps with OH-12.

There's some narrow overlap, though Leland almost certainly doesn't live in the district. Which, as we all know, isn't a legal problem, but is one of image. The bigger issue is he seems to be angling to attach himself to Betty Sutton's gubernatorial campaign as her Lieutenant Governor. Lord knows he could raise enough money to compete in the 12th, though.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2017, 12:35:17 PM »

Could State Rep David Leland run? Pretty sure his district narrowly overlaps with OH-12.

There's some narrow overlap, though Leland almost certainly doesn't live in the district. Which, as we all know, isn't a legal problem, but is one of image. The bigger issue is he seems to be angling to attach himself to Betty Sutton's gubernatorial campaign as her Lieutenant Governor. Lord knows he could raise enough money to compete in the 12th, though.

I don't think he's a good fit for this district.  We need someone who can make inroads in the non-Franklin territory.  Plus, the Republican nominee would have to be someone with some serious baggage like Kris Jordan or Clarence Mingo.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2017, 12:45:20 PM »

Does Mingo live in that part of the county? It'd be a good thing for him to look at, since he's obviously trying to move up. Jay Goyal could be a good candidate for the Dems. Mansfield-based, Time Magazine 40 under 40, still under 40. Doubt he runs, though, seeing he never finished for four terms in the state house.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2017, 12:54:29 PM »

This was a Trump +11 district and a Portman +28 district. Don’t get your hopes up.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2017, 12:57:55 PM »

This was a Trump +11 district and a Portman +28 district. Don’t get your hopes up.

I said above this isn't going to be won, but Strickland was a trash candidate in the end, this district was one of few in Ohio that actually trended left, and is far more D-friendly than many of the others where we've seen special elections.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2017, 01:41:55 PM »

Does Mingo live in that part of the county? It'd be a good thing for him to look at, since he's obviously trying to move up. Jay Goyal could be a good candidate for the Dems. Mansfield-based, Time Magazine 40 under 40, still under 40. Doubt he runs, though, seeing he never finished for four terms in the state house.

I was actually thinking about Goyal and I think he could be a strong recruit (he'd wipe the floor with someone like Jordan, Mingo in the Richland County portion and probably win it by at least a moderately-sized margin against a generic Republican), but I'd be surprised if he's interested.  He's the type of guy who could narrowly win here against a flawed Republican candidate with the right turnout in Franklin County.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2017, 01:45:12 PM »

For reference, in 2016 this district was 53-42 Trump, in 2012 it was 54-44 Romney, and in 2008 it was 54-45 McCain. Seems pretty inelastic. Likely to Safe R.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2017, 02:17:46 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 02:20:20 PM by Mr.Phips »

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.
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