OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.

I agree overall, but the Columbus suburbs are a major hotbed of anti-Trump backlash.  There are plenty of registered Republicans here who are literally planning to just vote straight-ticket Democratic (with the exception of if Husted is the gubernatorial nominee, folks here still like him) because of Trump (to say nothing of Democrats and independents).  The margins in the Franklin County portion would be through the roof with a solid Democratic candidate and there is an outside chance that someone like Goyal could beat Jordan or Mingo in a special election.

[Mr.Phips]

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.

I agree overall, but the Columbus suburbs are a major hotbed of anti-Trump backlash.  There are plenty of registered Republicans here who are literally planning to just vote straight-ticket Democratic (with the exception of if Husted is the gubernatorial nominee, folks here still like him) because of Trump (to say nothing of Democrats and independents).  The margins in the Franklin County portion would be through the roof with a solid Democratic candidate and there is an outside chance that someone like Goyal could beat Jordan or Mingo in a special election.

I would think that the Dem would need to come close to carrying Delaware county to win.

[BuckeyeNut]

Any chance Danny O'Connor lives in this district and not Beatty's/Stiver's?

Edit: Yeah, this district is one a few reasons Dems need to start investing in Delaware County.

Edit 2: NPR saying Mingo, Senators Bacon and Jordan all looking at this district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.

I agree overall, but the Columbus suburbs are a major hotbed of anti-Trump backlash.  There are plenty of registered Republicans here who are literally planning to just vote straight-ticket Democratic (with the exception of if Husted is the gubernatorial nominee, folks here still like him) because of Trump (to say nothing of Democrats and independents).  The margins in the Franklin County portion would be through the roof with a solid Democratic candidate and there is an outside chance that someone like Goyal could beat Jordan or Mingo in a special election.

I would think that the Dem would need to come close to carrying Delaware county to win.

I don't know.  If they got a tie in the Muskingum County portion, blew the Republican out of the water in the Franklin County, and won the Richland County portion by like 8% (which Goyal could do), and then just avoided getting completely destroyed in Licking and Delaware, I could see a very narrow path to victory.  Kevin Bacon would be a lock in the GE, btw.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jordan isn't completely toxic yet, somehow, he could still make it through the primary.

[Rjjr77]

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.

I agree overall, but the Columbus suburbs are a major hotbed of anti-Trump backlash.  There are plenty of registered Republicans here who are literally planning to just vote straight-ticket Democratic (with the exception of if Husted is the gubernatorial nominee, folks here still like him) because of Trump (to say nothing of Democrats and independents).  The margins in the Franklin County portion would be through the roof with a solid Democratic candidate and there is an outside chance that someone like Goyal could beat Jordan or Mingo in a special election.

I would think that the Dem would need to come close to carrying Delaware county to win.

I don't know.  If they got a tie in the Muskingum County portion, blew the Republican out of the water in the Franklin County, and won the Richland County portion by like 8% (which Goyal could do), and then just avoided getting completely destroyed in Licking and Delaware, I could see a very narrow path to victory.  Kevin Bacon would be a lock in the GE, btw.

I dont know if the D Candidate exists, because I think Goyal could win 8% in Richland, but I dont see him breaking even in Muskingum.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

This one of those districts where Republicans REALLY knew what they were doing when they drew the lines.  The portion of Franklin county is heavily Dem, but that is completely drowned out by heavily Republican and inelastic rural and suburban areas.  It's similar to NC-10, where Republicans took heavily Democratic Asheville and attached it to heavily Republican Charlotte exurb counties to create a district where Republicans are guaranteed about 57% in all situations.

What are you talking about? The district was drawn in such a way that the traditionally Republican parts of Franklin County were placed in Tiberi's district, largely because the Columbus vote sink was drawn in such a way to encompass the truly Democratic parts of Franklin County...

Dublin, Worthington, Westerville and New Albany are many things but they're not heavily Democratic. Similarly, Newark and Mansfield are not "heavily Republican"...

[BuckeyeNut]

Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O'Brien is running. Delaware county is ~1/3 of the votes in the district, and it would likely take a fracturing among several candidates for a Franklin/Licking/Muskingum/Richland County candidate to make it through. If O'Brien is elected, she will be the first woman Republican to represent Ohio in Congress since Schmidt retired in '12.

[Kingpoleon]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This incoming wave continues to build... the RNC is probably panicing right now.

[BuckeyeNut]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

[Bidenworth2020]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

[BuckeyeNut]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

My guess is that the Democrats nominate Ed Albertson again and don't make much of a play here.

[BuckeyeNut]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

My guess is that the Democrats nominate Ed Albertson again and don't make much of a play here.

That would be disappointing. But unsurprising. Saves some money for Harbaugh and Rader. Though it sure looks like we've seceded the 16th, so maybe that's unwarranted optimism re: the allocation of resources.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

My guess is that the Democrats nominate Ed Albertson again and don't make much of a play here.

That would be disappointing. But unsurprising. Saves some money for Harbaugh and Rader. Though it sure looks like we've seceded the 16th, so maybe that's unwarranted optimism re: the allocation of resources.

Yeah, I don't get why the Democrats aren't running a wave insurance candidate in Renacci's district.

[BuckeyeNut]

Former Franklin Count Sheriff Zack Scott to run. Both a disgusting human and Democrats best recruit.

[SamTilden2020]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

My guess is that the Democrats nominate Ed Albertson again and don't make much of a play here.

That would be disappointing. But unsurprising. Saves some money for Harbaugh and Rader. Though it sure looks like we've seceded the 16th, so maybe that's unwarranted optimism re: the allocation of resources.

I dobut Ohio is physically able to elect a man with the surname "Harbaugh".

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

he needs to resign now.

he already has a huge conflict of interest.

[BuckeyeNut]

Between the hotbed of Indivisible activism and the real chance, the OH GOP puts up another would-be sex offender (Clarence Mingo) or a domestic abuser (Kris Jodan), I'm starting to feel like there might be a real shot at this seat. Though that might just be Jones' victory going to my head. Although that said, I'm expecting Democrats to raise decent money here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Between the hotbed of Indivisible activism and the real chance, the OH GOP puts up another would-be sex offender (Clarence Mingo) or a domestic abuser (Kris Jodan), I'm starting to feel like there might be a real shot at this seat. Though that might just be Jones' victory going to my head. Although that said, I'm expecting Democrats to raise decent money here.

We’ll see what happens, Scott has some issues of his own (to say the least) and Bacon, the strongest possible Republican candidate, is running.  Haven’t heard any buzz about Mingo or Jordan considering a run lately.

[BuckeyeNut]

I don't think Scott wins the primary. I think it's going to be Russell. The majority of the Democratic primary is going to occur in Franklin County, and Scott's got a lot of ill will.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think Scott wins the primary. I think it's going to be Russell. The majority of the Democratic primary is going to occur in Franklin County, and Scott's got a lot of ill will.

Yeah, we kinda hate Zach Scott here   Russell is a some dude though and the other stuff I said stands.  If this flips than forget 2014, we’re looking at possibly the biggest wave in American history.

[BuckeyeNut]

I don't think Scott wins the primary. I think it's going to be Russell. The majority of the Democratic primary is going to occur in Franklin County, and Scott's got a lot of ill will.

Yeah, we kinda hate Zach Scott here   Russell is a some dude though and the other stuff I said stands.  If this flips than forget 2014, we’re looking at possibly the biggest wave in American history.

Russell is claiming the ability to raise at least $5 mil., so we'll see.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Reading Zach Scott's quick bio, I like him for two reasons:

1-He has the same first name as me.
2-He actually attends a Vineyard church, the same affiliation as the church I was baptized in.

So I like him already! Knowing nothing else.