OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Brittain33]

I can't read *anything* into early votes other than what we already know, which is that a small number of Democrats are incredibly engaged this year and Republicans are not so engaged. These numbers can be easily swamped by what happens on Election Day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Early voting is gonna start in Oct, look for alot of these positive trends in the number of early vote in alot of these races. If the GOP districts are very close, upsets can happen. Like in OH gov race

[Ebsy]

Today's updated numbers:

[libertpaulian]

Today's updated numbers:

Dang.  That's pretty good.  Let's hope these numbers hold up.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Today's updated numbers:

Dang.  That's pretty good.  Let's hope these numbers hold up.

Wake me when we hit 70%

[Zaybay]

This is really great, usually the EarlyV gets more R as time goes on, but it seems to be reversed.

Also, I would like to note what kind of district this is, an ancestral R one. This is suburbia, a place that has known the GOP since FDR. This should have similar results to the AZ race, where most votes are from Rs, but are only because they are registered like that.

What shocks me is that this district is giving the same margins(if not better) as the rest of the state, which includes the D cities and ancestral Ds in the south and east. Its likely that most of the D votes are modern Ds, and so will be unlikely to jump ship.

 The R vote, however, is another story. Its quite possible that modern Ds are voting for the D under an R registration, similar to AZ, or vice versa with WV and KY. These Rs are more likely to jump ship, for either the 3rd parties, or the D, indicating that this performance might be even better than what we are seeing based on a partisan registration.

[Gass3268]

Looks like they're going to be moving this to Toss Up:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1020680579988230144

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s happening

[IceSpear]

A month before the election everyone thought Saccone would win comfortably and that Estes/Norman/Lesko would win in double digit blowouts. O'Connor may be an underdog, but anyone who wrote this race off considering the trend in other special elections must be a frequent hot stove toucher.

[junior chįmp]

Looks like they're going to be moving this to Toss Up:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1020680579988230144

but but...Atlas told me Balderson got all the union endorsements so he was a shoe in. Why it almost appears that there is some kind of national environment that by and large dictates most election results irrespective of the stuff that Alas wastes its time debating.

[Thunder98]

Another guy named O'Connor (L) could join the race. WTH  NVM its for the Fall Election

http://radio.wosu.org/post/second-oconnor-could-join-ohios-12th-district-race#stream/0

[Zaybay]

Another guy named O'Connor (L) could join the race. WTH

http://radio.wosu.org/post/second-oconnor-could-join-ohios-12th-district-race#stream/0

A Libertarian would just siphon votes from the R. O'Connor doesnt have incredible name rec. People are going to vote for the Dem, not the O'Connor guy on TV.

If he joins, I would give more of an advantage to the D O'Connor.

[ON Progressive]

Another guy named O'Connor (L) could join the race. WTH

http://radio.wosu.org/post/second-oconnor-could-join-ohios-12th-district-race#stream/0

That would be for the full term election in November, not this special election.

[Oryxslayer]

Remember people, Ohio's early vote is historically VERY democratic. So much so that Ohio election night returns are divided into 3 phases: The Democratic dominated early vote, The Republican dominated rural/suburban day of vote, and The slow-counting cities which tend to be hard dem. Therefore, the good early voting numbers are not too out of line with expectations, and should be interpreted as only a single data point. 

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1020811550771294211

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It proves that GOP is worried

[LimoLiberal]

A boon for Troy Balderson in a district where the average of two independent polls indicate the president is popular.

Monmouth 6/11/18

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_061118/

Approval split of 48-47

JMC Analytics 6/17/18

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Approval split of 54-40

[Hindsight was 2020]

Any EV updates?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1020811550771294211

huge benefit for balderson! the president is even here in approval, and now the base will turn out!

[Zaybay]

Remember people, Ohio's early vote is historically VERY democratic. So much so that Ohio election night returns are divided into 3 phases: The Democratic dominated early vote, The Republican dominated rural/suburban day of vote, and The slow-counting cities which tend to be hard dem. Therefore, the good early voting numbers are not too out of line with expectations, and should be interpreted as only a single data point. 

Sure, thats true for Ohio the state, but its not so true for this district. This is a historic R district, one where most people who vote are registered R. Sort of like PA-18, but reversed. The numbers displayed are not votes for a candidate, but rather votes from a political party member. The D votes may not all vote D, but thats how they are registered.

Thats the big issue here. For this district, that number is way too high, a bit higher than the state, when this is one of the most heavily R registered districts in Ohio. And while Democrats have been rather loyal in voting for the party this year, historic Rs...not so much. The Republicans dominated the early vote in AZ, but many of those voters jumped ship for the Democrat, creating a close race. If something similar happens here, it will be Representative O'Connor.

But this is all speculation, and it is rather early, but from the Ohio records, the early vote only moves a couple points in favor of the GOP as time goes on, so this will be a down to the wire race.

[LimoLiberal]

There are literally only 5000 votes cast rn. There were over 200k in PA-18. Can we not get our panties in a wad over these turnout stats yet?

Stop concern trolling!11!!1!

[Devout Centrist]

A boon for Troy Balderson in a district where the average of two independent polls indicate the president is popular.

Monmouth 6/11/18

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_061118/

Approval split of 48-47

JMC Analytics 6/17/18

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Approval split of 54-40

Yes, thank you for posting month old polls. Quality analysis, kid

[Ebsy]

Any EV updates?

I will post the next update with the big vote dump on Monday.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ohio 12th turnout probably won't be ad high as Lamb's glorious victory, but I agree, while current trends look nice, they are a drop in the bucket of results. Granted, in a tight race, a drop can make THE difference.

[NOVA Green]

Now that we are rolling into Special Election Season in OH US-REP CD-12 let's take a brief look at a few relevant items....

Let's start with the vote share by County within OH CD-12 Precincts....



So basically the concept of vote share over three election cycles using the topline election (US_PRES '16, OH-GOV '14, US PRES '12) is to be able to adjust data to control for voter turnout differentials as well as population growth rates within a given CD....

Basically, what we see here is that Franklin and Delaware County collectively account for ~ 60% of the Vote Share within the CD, and have essentially been a growing segment of the electorate between '12 and '16....

Licking County has been a consistent ~ 20% of OH CD-12 Vote Share, and obviously will be a major contributor to any CD-12 Special Election Results in August 2018....

The other Four Counties precincts located within CD-12 ('12 > '18 account for the remaing 20% of the Vote Share---- (Marion, Morrow, Muskigum,  and Richland).

Now let's take a peak at the 2012 to 2016 US PRES vote swings by County within CD-12.



So here we see a dramatic increase in Democratic support within the Franklin County portion of CD-12, as well as to a lesser extent within Delaware County, but also some major swings towards Trump in other Counties within the precincts of CD-12....

Now let's look at the raw Total Vote DEM-REP Margin Changes between 2012 and 2016 for US PRES by County...



So here we start to see the raw power of massive swings among the heavily Upper-Income Anglo precincts of Franklin County between '12 and '16....

Honestly, I don't think the 'Pubs have yet hit rock bottom within these Franklin County precincts, but my suspicion is that O'Connor will likely outperform HRC, despite the "Trump Tax Cuts that nobody really experiences in the actual deductions on their Paychecks....

DEMS win '16 US-PRES in Franklin County precincts +36k and +22% Swings even excluding 3rd Party Votes....

Delaware County is obviously Ground Zero.... DEMS don't need to necessarily win Delaware County in CD-12 OH SE results, but just keep the PUB Margins as both % and RAW VOTE down to something more like ~ +7-10k R.... a 54-46 R win in Delaware County might be sufficient for a DEM win in CD-12...

Licking County and Muskigum County are a real test of if a LIB DEM can regain Obama '12 voters that defected to Trump....  Obama narrowly won Muskigum precincts with OH CD-12, and in Licking managed to bag a 42-56 R loss to Romney in '12....

I haven't had a chance to run all of these precinct numbers that I have for OH from '04 > '16, but to me it's starting to look like a potential combo scene between the relatively solidly Republican suburbs of South Pittsburgh moving hard Dem (Delaware County maybe less so???), but with a dramatically growing Dem base within the Franklin County portions of OH CD-12, where you really didn't have any comparison within PA-18 other than one township in South Allegheny (Mt Lebanon) that essentially swung dramatically DEM from '12 to '16 similar to the Franklin County precincts of OH CD-12....

What you did have in PA CD-18 were Ancestral DEMs in the SW portion of the District that although Lamb narrowly lost, he was able to replicate Obama '08 numbers in Fayette and Washington Counties....

At this point we have no real evidence whatsoever that Obama '12 (Or Obama '08 DEMs) will come home for a US House election in Licking and Richland Counties....

I'll continue to run the precinct level numbers, but Trump did have major swings in the Rural and Small Town WWC precincts here, which despite the dramatic swings towards HRC in Franklin, and to a lesser extent Delaware, still makes this a jump ball...

I'll run some more stats later, as I have done with PA-18, AZ-08, AL-SEN and mix in more data that overlaps with US CENSUS Stats in greater detail by Municipality and Township within CD-12....