OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Dr. Arch]

So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

Apparently really well given the raw D primary vote lead and the % of the vote from Franklin.

[NOVA Green]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

Wait, it's over? I though we still had tommorow.

[Ebsy]

So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

Wait, it's over? I though we still had tommorow.

That is correct, there are 6 hours of early voting tomorrow. The final daily update should be tomorrow afternoon.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

Wait, it's over? I though we still had tommorow.

That is correct, there are 6 hours of early voting tomorrow. The final daily update should be tomorrow afternoon.

Praise be to Danforth

[Hindsight was 2020]

So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

Wait, it's over? I though we still had tommorow.

That is correct, there are 6 hours of early voting tomorrow. The final daily update should be tomorrow afternoon.

Oh sorry nm

[NOVA Green]

Let's look at the CD-12 EV numbers to date by Municipality within Delaware County by place:

Delaware City: 17% of 2016 PRES Vote Share by Place within Delaware County.



Many of y'all that have been following my posts regarding the electoral history of Delaware City, and most of all you Atlas regulars from the Buckeye State and elsewhere that follow this stuff, likely recall my post regarding the Electoral history of Delaware City, and how heavily it swung Trump in '16 from what was essentially a 50-50 Obama '08/'12 vs McCain '08/Romney '12 City.

These EV numbers are NOT a good indicator for 'Pubs thus far, especially considering this is well outside of the Suburban/Exurban part of the County.

Heck, Pubs are only at 40% of the '18 SE EV in a 50-50 City with tons of "Others" out there which in theory might well break 60-40 in an open CD under the current political environment.

Powell City--- 7% of Delaware County Vote Share in 2016:



These numbers don't look much better in a pretty ritzy place that gave Trump a decent chunk of the Vote back in '16, despite major swings towards the DEM PRES candidate in '16....

Unfortunately we don't have tons of numbers out of DelCo yet, but the EV numbers are looking pretty decent for the Dems in Delaware City and Powell City, and unfortunately I'm not seeing the EV data yet available for the critical Townships that will likely play a critical role in the overall Delaware County RAW VOTE Totals and Overall margins (Concord, Organge, Liberty Townships, etc...).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

@ Badger: I now accept my accolades

[OneJ]

Kasich can’t call anyone a weak candidate after winning only one state and it took a while for him to surpass Rubio in the popular vote. SMDH.

[BuckeyeNut]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

@ Badger: I now accept my accolades

Well, that's three new Democratic seats in the State House.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor is trying to make things on his twitter page seem eye-popping and attention-grabbing but some of it is just plain garish and nauseating:

https://twitter.com/dannyoconnor1/status/1026260067774025728

https://twitter.com/i/status/1026259617876258816

You got to click on Aryeh's link at the end that O'Connor retweeted, nauseating gif.

Again, this is regardless of your political views, I am just talking about the style, not that it really matters.

[BuckeyeNut]

Leave Aryeh alone, he's good people.

[IceSpear]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

I have nearly 25,000 posts on US Election Atlas dot org and I have no idea who the hell Sarah Jeong is. I doubt any more than 1% of the people in this district know or care who she is, much less will base their vote on it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

I have nearly 25,000 posts on US Election Atlas dot org and I have no idea who the hell Sarah Jeong is. I doubt any more than 1% of this district knows or cares who she is, much less base their vote on it.

Imma be bold and say even with a Balderson by 6 one, not a single d@mn voter will change their minds because of Sarah whoever.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh well, at least Balderson will still be better than Tiberi.

[Greatblueheron]

Right now, I think this race will come to a anticlimactic conclusion, and Balderson will win by a few points.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Right now, I think this race will come to a anticlimactic conclusion, and Balderson will win by a few points.

[wesmoorenerd]

Latest Emerson poll, from their podcast:

O'Connor 47%
Balderson 46%

Undecided 7%, MOE 5%

Talk about a photo finish! I honestly think this is as close to a 50/50 race as it gets at this point.

[wesmoorenerd]

Question for y'all: looks like most people agree Balderson is the slimmest of favorites going into tomorrow. If Balderson wins, is O'Connor screwed in November? If O'Connor wins, does he become the favorite in November?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have nearly 50,000 posts on US Election Atlas dot org and I have no idea who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

[IceSpear]

Question for y'all: looks like most people agree Balderson is the slimmest of favorites going into tomorrow. If Balderson wins, is O'Connor screwed in November? If O'Connor wins, does he become the favorite in November?

I think it depends on the margin. If it's very close either way, I'd still see it as a toss up in November.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Latest Emerson poll, from their podcast:

O'Connor 47%
Balderson 46%

Undecided 7%, MOE 5%

Talk about a photo finish! I honestly think this is as close to a 50/50 race as it gets at this point.

Unfortunately, it's Emerson.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Latest Emerson poll, from their podcast:

O'Connor 47%
Balderson 46%

Undecided 7%, MOE 5%

Talk about a photo finish! I honestly think this is as close to a 50/50 race as it gets at this point.

Ah damnit that means Balderson is up by 12. Ah well, good try guys, maybe next time

[new_patomic]

Emerson's last poll for PA-18 did have Lamb up within the MOE of the eventual result.

On the other hand, it's still Emerson.

[BuckeyeNut]

Question for y'all: looks like most people agree Balderson is the slimmest of favorites going into tomorrow. If Balderson wins, is O'Connor screwed in November? If O'Connor wins, does he become the favorite in November?

It depends on the turnout. If this is a super low turnout election, then we’re headed for another tossup. If it’s more normal, Lean D. If Balderson wins, all-but Safe R.