OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Tender Branson]

...oh, wow. Okay, if this pattern holds, O'Connor could net a full 1000 votes from the remaining absentees. He would still need to win around 65% of the remaining provisionals to edge out Balderson, but that doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.

I'd love to look like an idiot for saying it was over.

It would be good to know which percentage of provisional and late postal ballots usually end up being counted in OH.

I think I've read somewhere that in CA it's only 30% or something for provisional ballots ... (many people who voted without an ID simply don't have one at home or don't have the time after an election to return with an ID).

[NOVA Green]

Ok---- let's look through a few of the Cities in Franklin County in more detail now that we have at least the initial batch of unofficial numbers prior to any ABS or PROV votes....

Westerville--- 13.2% of Franklin County CD-12 Vote Share:

As I briefly mentioned sometime back in a brief profile of the CD-12 portion of Franklin County, Westerville is the 3rd largest City located in Franklin County (Pop 36.8k), although portions of the City extend into Delaware County (I'll get to that on the Delaware County post later).

Median Household Income ( $82.1k):



So Westerville skews relatively Upper-Middle Class by Household Income, but there is also a pretty decent chunk of Middle-Class Households in there as well.

Still, relatively Upper Middle-Class voters tend to vote more reliably, even in "off-year" elections, which likely helps explain a good chunk of the Cities increase in Vote Share between '16 GE and '18 SE....

Race/Ethnicity:



It's a few % points more Anglo than Ohio as a whole, and significantly less African-American than Ohio as a whole.

Age Demographics:



It skews slightly older and with fewer Millennial Gens (Which makes sense considering it's probably a somewhat more expensive place to buy or rent in than some other alternatives....

Educational Attainment:

Check standard box for major '16 US-PRES DEM swings..... 60% Post HS Diploma is pretty educated in most parts of the Country....

Relative Occupations:



So here it starts to get even more interesting....

As expected we see a significantly higher than average concentration of occupations in White Collar jobs, as well as a much lower concentration of occupations in Blue Collar jobs. Still, as someone who has been both MGMT and Rank-and-file, there were times where employees reporting to me were making significantly more money overall compared because of built in Overtime for skilled workers, while I was working 60 Hours a Week for the same Pay as I would have been making at 40 Hours/Week.

however the numbers for Computers/Math and Education stand out here.

So.... Westerville experienced the largest swings of any Municipality in Franklin County in CD-12 between the '16 GE versus the preliminary numbers for the 2018 CD-12 Special Election.

Let's look at the election results for the US Presidential Elections between 2004 and 2016 with swings, as well as the results from the 2018 CD-12 Special election.



What we see here is even in 2004, which was Four Years after Political Scientists first started to note not only a dramatic increase in the % of American Workers in the "Knowledge Sector", but also major swings towards the Democratic Party in 2000 among this demographic, George W. Bush still beat Kerry by ~ 20% points in 2004 in a tight election in Ohio!!!!

Even in 2008 and 2012 Westerville voted consistently for Republican PRES candidates by +10%.

In 2016 we first observed a Democrat winning Westerville, but even there HRC only garnered 50% of the Vote, with 3rd Parties sucking up the remaining 5.5% gap between the Major Parties.

In 2018, Westerville goes (57-32 D) +25% D for a US-House election, which seems to indicate that the "disease" is starting to really infect down-ballot PUB candidates.

Obviously one of the questions that I'm curious about, is to what extent will we see that manifest this November for Statewide Elections within Ohio....

OK--- Now let's take a slightly deeper dive into Westerville to see *WHERE* these swings took place in terms of the overall political Geography....

Let's Start with the Ward Map of Westerville, since there was one precinct added between '16 and '18 in Ward 3.



Now let's look at the Swings by Ward within Westerville from the '16 GE to the '18 SE....



OK--- We see 2/5 Wards significantly under-perform and 3/5 significantly over-perform for the Democrats....

Wards # 3 & 5 had only relatively minor swings towards the Dems in the Special Election and Wards # 1,2, & 4 had significant swings towards the Democrats....

Ok--- now let's look at the Vote Drop-Off % by Ward within the Westerville precincts of Franklin County....



We see almost a 70% voter drop-off in Ward # 3 and a 47% drop-off in Ward #5....

Meanwhile in Ward #2 and Ward #4 we see only about a 35% voter drop-off compared in the '16 GE!!!

OK--- fair enough.... what did the voting pool or voting share by Ward look like in Westerville in '16 and '18?

2018:



2016:



So---- Looks like Ward #2 has always been a major contender representing roughly 30% of the Vote Share in both the '16 GE and the '18 CD-12 SE and jumped up from 29% to 32% and is the Biggest kid on the block....

Ward #3 has always been the small kid on the block of the (5) Franklin County Wards of Westerville bagging 14% of the City Vote in '16 and plunging down to 11 % in the Special Election

Ward #5 has been wrestling with Ward #1 for the number Two biggest Ward on the City Blocks of Westerville, with both roughly representing about 20% of the City Each....

So Now one starts to wonder about why Wards #2 and Wards #4 swung so heavily Democrat, and why voter turnout dropped so dramatically in Wards # 3 and Wards #5?

Let's look a little more closely at the Demographics in Wards #3 & #5....



So, here we see a pretty decent sized African-American community concentrated heavily in the SW portion of Westerville representing roughly 20-40% of the population that heavily overlaps with precincts in Ward #3 and Ward #5.

Precinct 5-B in Westerville for example, saw a 74% of raw voter numbers between the 2016 General Election and the prelim numbers from the 2018 CD-12 GE, which was the highest in the entire Franklin County portions of the City....

Precincts 3-A and 3-C experienced a 66-72% drop in the Total Votes between '16 and the '18 SE.

Now Westerville added an additional precinct 3-E in 2018, so without having looked at the precinct line changes here between '16 and '18, it's slightly more difficult to see exactly where the Total Vote drop-off occured in Ward #3....

So these are the precinct swing numbers I'm looking at, along with drop-off voters from '16 GE > '18 SE...



NOW--- let's take a look at MHI by US Census Tract within the Franklin County portion of Westerville...



So, most of the wealthier parts of Westerville are actually over the Delaware County line, where MHI runs ~ $120k/Yr (Would be awesome wage in relatively low cost of living Metro Columbus), but still the darker shading on the Franklin County Census Tract still has an MHI of $102k+/Yr, which is obviously nothing to sneeze at in most parts of the US.

These precincts tend to heavily overlap with much of Ward #2, where you had relatively low voter drop-off and relatively large swings....

Ward #4 swings '16 > '18 appear to have been driven heavily by one individual precinct (Westerville 4-A that swung +22.7% D ('16 to '18) AND only saw a 28.8% TV drop-off....

That's really odd, but it appears to overlap with an overwhelmingly College Aged Census Tract...



Now, once I start looking at the data, we have Otterbein University that basically dominates the precinct....



So this precinct went: 2018- (58-41 D) +17% D from 2016 (45-50 R) +5% R---- +22% SWING.

In 2012: (40- 59 R) +19% R   or a +14% swing between '12 and '16....

Not sure exactly what's going on here and why not only didn't student turnout drop in the Middle of Summer for a Special Election, but also why the hell this Republican voting University where Trump beat HRC by +5% swung hard towards O'Connor....

Regardless, it helps explain part of the swings in Ward 4....

There are a lot of things to look at in the details of the OH CD-12 Special Election, and I would strongly caution everyone to not totally get onto their "jump to conclusions mat" until we get a chance to mine through the details much more extensively....

Obviously now that I have seen some of the results from Westerville, I start to wonder to what extent Danny O'Connor under-performed in other African-American parts of Columbus?

To what extent did the Student Vote (Or lack thereof in most cases) contribute to margin shifts in certain parts of Licking County for example, or even the OSU overlap in parts of Columbus?

I suspect part of the reason many Pub's are quietly flipping out, is that they are seeing many of these swings in CD-12 occurring in some of their safest and most reliable high-turnout base areas.... I suspect that there might be a strong argument to be made that even in CD-12 with higher turnout in November these trends might be even more brutal....

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/midawson/status/1028016538476064770

Don't tell RINO Tom!

[Tender Branson]

Interesting news I found on the OH SOS page about the 2016 election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.sos.state.oh.us/media-center/press-releases/2016/2016-12-01-b

There's some good news and some bad news buried in those numbers:

The good news is that we can expect a much higher number of provisionals to be counted than I thought (85%).

The bad news is that Hillary only did 6.4 points better with provisional ballots than she did in OH as a whole.

Adjusted for the O'Connor numbers, it would mean he'll end up with only 56% of provisional ballots.

Assuming a recognition rate of 85% for both the remaining postal and provisional ballots, O'Connor would need 61% though to close the gap ...

[NOVA Green]

Working through some more places in Franklin County---

Worthington- Pop 13.5k---- 8.4% of Franklin County CD-12 Vote Share (+ 1.8% from '16 GE).



Worthington had the 2nd largest swing towards O'Connor of any place in the Franklin County portions of CD-12 compared against the 2016 US PRES votes (+13% Dem Swing).

Let's take a peek at how it has voted for President starting in 2004 through the CD-12 Special Election of 2018.



So as we can see it was basically 50-50 in 2004, swung heavily towards Obama in '08, stayed constant in '12, swung +20% Dem in 2016, and +13% Dem in 2018.

The Pub raw % numbers only dropped 4% between '16 and '18, which indicates that a decent chunk of the 3rd Party PRES voters in '16 voted DEM in '18, combined with a reasonable but not huge % of Trump '16 > O'Connor '18 voters.

Again, the thing that really stands out for me is how rapidly Worthington is shifting into a heavily Democratic voting City at the Federal level, effectively becoming the 2nd most Democratic City within this portion of CD-12.

So, let's take a more detailed look at the Demographics of Worthington, before delving a bit into the ward/precinct turnout and results....



So here we see that Worthington is a bit older than the population of Ohio at large, slightly below on the 40-60 age category, a significant bump in the 30-40 category, and way lower population of 18-29 Years.

Race/Ethnicity:



Worthington is quite a bit Whiter than Ohio as a whole, and a much lower proportion of African-Americans.

Median Household Income (MHI)



33% of the Households make more than $ 125k /Yr
56% make more than $75k/Yr

This is pretty clearly an Upper-Middle-Class City, with a relatively high % of affluent folks.

Educational Attainment:



It is an extremely well educated City with 72% of the Pop over 25 having greater than a HS Diploma.

Relative Occupations:



As expected these skew heavily White Collar/Professional. Interestingly enough along with your usual Business/Mgmt/Computers/Science-Math occupations, you have a much higher % of people in other occupations such as Legal, Entertainment, and Education than would typically be the case for these types of communities.

Time to break down Worthington by Wards to see what happened in more detail:


Here is a Chart breakdown of the 2016 PRES and 2018 CD-12 SE:



Let's look at it in a graphical format:



So--- Ward #2 is the most Democratic Part of the City 2016: (70-24 D), 2018 (80-20 D).

Wards #1 and # 4 are the most Republican parts of the City, with a much lower swing in Ward #1 than elsewhere in Worthington between '16 and '18.

Now let's look at the Vote Drop Off by Ward between the '16 PRES election and the '18 Special Election:



So Ward #3 saw a 52% drop-off in Total Votes between '16 and '18, and Ward #1 (The most Republican and smallest margin swings) has the smallest TV drop-off....

Ward #2, the overwhelmingly Democratic Ward had a relatively small voter drop-off as well.

Now, since Worthington has rapidly become a heavily Democratic bastion, time to look at the results for the 2016 OH-SEN race and the 2016 CD-12 race by Ward to see what the numbers show.




So, Ward #2 was the only Ward that voted DEM for OH-SEN in 2016 and the only Ward that voted DEM for US-HOUSE CD-12 in 2016.

Again Wards #1 and #4 stand out as the most Republican Wards, and Ward #3 is basically a City bellweather with results tending to cluster close to the City average TV % for most races.

NOW---- Let's drill it down to more detailed demographic data by Ward to see what's going on here...

Here is a Map of MHI by Census Tract:



So---

Ward #1: is basically the wealthiest dark RED Census Tracts of $120k/$133k/$100k in the Western Part of the Map.

Ward #2: Basically the $78k/$85k areas on the Map

Ward #3: The Northwest Corner of the Map---- $103k

Ward #4: The Northeast Corner of the Map- $ 71k

Wow--- So the most PUB areas in Worthington are both the most affluent and also the most Middle-Class (And least affluent part of the City)!!!!

The Ward (#3) with the largest % drop of the votes is relatively upper Middle Class, and the DEM stronghold is solidly Middle Class, but basically only the 3rd wealthiest ward in terms of MHI....

OK---- so maybe Race/Ethnicity can explain some of the variances by Wards within Worthington?


Problem is that the City is so overwhelmingly Anglo, it really overall doesn't appear to be much of a factor even in a detailed breakdown.

We do have a significant Asian-American population clustered in one of three Census Tracts in Ward #1:

Map of Asian-American Population by Census Tract:



So in Ward #1 we see 14% Asian-American population around Precinct 1-B.... 2016: (66-31 D); 2018 (73-27 D). Roughly 50% of the Asia population is Chinese-American.

It's the most Democratic Precinct now in Ward #1, and also experienced the largest swings towards the DEM in the CD-12 SE....

We do also see a smaller Asian-American population of 5% in Two other Census Tracts in Ward #1, as well as a 7% population in the Northern part of Ward #3.

SO--- since I started looking at Race/Ethnicity as a potential variable, decided to pull numbers on Ancestry by Census Tract to see if that might explain anything....

Here is a Census Tract breakdown by Irish Ancestry for Worthington:



So---- Ward #2 roughly overlaps with the 24-27% Irish Ancestry corner of the map....

Ward #1 has a decent Irish-American Population in the more PUB leaning precincts, and only 15% in the most heavily Asian American precinct/Census Tract.

Ward # 4: Is only 16% Irish-American, but was the Trumpiest Ward in '16, and still swung O'Connor by AVG City margins.

Ward #3: 20% Irish-American, but place with highest vote drop-off from '16 PRES to '18 CD-12 SE, albeit with +15% O'Connor swings!!!

So, if there was a hidden Irish-American surge in Worthington, Ward #2 is the only place where this might be explainable, within the context of Metro Columbus European Ethnic political dynamics.

Now we need to control for AGE, since obviously there were some pretty huge AGE GAP margins in the 2016 Presidential Election???

It gets tricky with the US Census Map tool that I use to easily isolate age, but let's start here....

Here is a Census Tract Map of the % of the TOTAL POPULATION aged 30-39:



Now this appears to clearly indicate that there is a major concentration of Older Millennials concentrated in Ward #2....

Now let's look at the Census Tract Map of TOTAL POPULATION aged 18-39 as a % by Census Tract....



OK--- now we're getting somewhere.... Basically 33% of the entire population of Ward #2 is aged 18-39.... Once you add in the 25% of the population that are Children, you only have 42% of the population that over the age of 40!!!!

We also see how Ward #1 has the lowest % of total population aged 18-39 (Maybe somewhere around 17% ) and maybe somewhere around 22% that are Children, meaning 61% of the population are 40+ Yrs old.

So, it looks like Millennials turned out in force in Ward #2 (Even although it is NOT a college precinct) AND Middle-aged / Older voters turned out in force in Ward #1 (My drop-off chart above).

Now let's look at where the older population is most heavily concentrated in Worthington by Census Tract:



Wait--- what the heck is that one Census Tract in the SW corner of the City where 40% of the Pop are over the age of 60???

Ahhh.... looks like that is Worthington precinct 1-C, one of the more 'Pub precincts in the City these days 2016 PRES: (55-39 D); 2018: (63-37 D).... Still it had a good 10% swing which although it was one of the worst in the City, still wasn't too shabby.

NOW---- What about precinct 4-C???   It swung +22% DEM between '16 and the '18 CD-12 SE, which was the largest swing anywhere within Worthington.

2016: (53-39 D)  +14% D;   2018: (68-32 D)  +36% D.

Precinct Map of Ward #4:



I'm a little confused why this precinct North of Schrock Road swung so heavily Democratic.... it doesn't help that I can't break down Census Tract data into enough detail... Sure we have some Census Block tracts with a younger age cohort within this Precinct, compared to much of the rest of Ward #4, but still...

At this point it's pretty clear that overall Worthington is moving into solidly Democratic Party voting patterns at all Federal Elections, and among most major demographics within the City.

The key question, is what will happen when the voters of places like Worthington go to the polls in November to vote for Statewide Elected offices....

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Interesting news I found on the OH SOS page about the 2016 election:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.sos.state.oh.us/media-center/press-releases/2016/2016-12-01-b

There's some good news and some bad news buried in those numbers:

The good news is that we can expect a much higher number of provisionals to be counted than I thought (85%).

The bad news is that Hillary only did 6.4 points better with provisional ballots than she did in OH as a whole.

Adjusted for the O'Connor numbers, it would mean he'll end up with only 56% of provisional ballots.

Assuming a recognition rate of 85% for both the remaining postal and provisional ballots, O'Connor would need 61% though to close the gap ...

But close enough for a recount?

[Badger]

Working through some more places in Franklin County---

Worthington- Pop 13.5k---- 8.4% of Franklin County CD-12 Vote Share (+ 1.8% from '16 GE).



Worthington had the 2nd largest swing towards O'Connor of any place in the Franklin County portions of CD-12 compared against the 2016 US PRES votes (+13% Dem Swing).

Let's take a peek at how it has voted for President starting in 2004 through the CD-12 Special Election of 2018.



So as we can see it was basically 50-50 in 2004, swung heavily towards Obama in '08, stayed constant in '12, swung +20% Dem in 2016, and +13% Dem in 2018.

The Pub raw % numbers only dropped 4% between '16 and '18, which indicates that a decent chunk of the 3rd Party PRES voters in '16 voted DEM in '18, combined with a reasonable but not huge % of Trump '16 > O'Connor '18 voters.

Again, the thing that really stands out for me is how rapidly Worthington is shifting into a heavily Democratic voting City at the Federal level, effectively becoming the 2nd most Democratic City within this portion of CD-12.

So, let's take a more detailed look at the Demographics of Worthington, before delving a bit into the ward/precinct turnout and results....



So here we see that Worthington is a bit older than the population of Ohio at large, slightly below on the 40-60 age category, a significant bump in the 30-40 category, and way lower population of 18-29 Years.

Race/Ethnicity:



Worthington is quite a bit Whiter than Ohio as a whole, and a much lower proportion of African-Americans.

Median Household Income (MHI)



33% of the Households make more than $ 125k /Yr
56% make more than $75k/Yr

This is pretty clearly an Upper-Middle-Class City, with a relatively high % of affluent folks.

Educational Attainment:



It is an extremely well educated City with 72% of the Pop over 25 having greater than a HS Diploma.

Relative Occupations:



As expected these skew heavily White Collar/Professional. Interestingly enough along with your usual Business/Mgmt/Computers/Science-Math occupations, you have a much higher % of people in other occupations such as Legal, Entertainment, and Education than would typically be the case for these types of communities.

Time to break down Worthington by Wards to see what happened in more detail:


Here is a Chart breakdown of the 2016 PRES and 2018 CD-12 SE:



Let's look at it in a graphical format:



So--- Ward #2 is the most Democratic Part of the City 2016: (70-24 D), 2018 (80-20 D).

Wards #1 and # 4 are the most Republican parts of the City, with a much lower swing in Ward #1 than elsewhere in Worthington between '16 and '18.

Now let's look at the Vote Drop Off by Ward between the '16 PRES election and the '18 Special Election:



So Ward #3 saw a 52% drop-off in Total Votes between '16 and '18, and Ward #1 (The most Republican and smallest margin swings) has the smallest TV drop-off....

Ward #2, the overwhelmingly Democratic Ward had a relatively small voter drop-off as well.

Now, since Worthington has rapidly become a heavily Democratic bastion, time to look at the results for the 2016 OH-SEN race and the 2016 CD-12 race by Ward to see what the numbers show.




So, Ward #2 was the only Ward that voted DEM for OH-SEN in 2016 and the only Ward that voted DEM for US-HOUSE CD-12 in 2016.

Again Wards #1 and #4 stand out as the most Republican Wards, and Ward #3 is basically a City bellweather with results tending to cluster close to the City average TV % for most races.

NOW---- Let's drill it down to more detailed demographic data by Ward to see what's going on here...

Here is a Map of MHI by Census Tract:



So---

Ward #1: is basically the wealthiest dark RED Census Tracts of $120k/$133k/$100k in the Western Part of the Map.

Ward #2: Basically the $78k/$85k areas on the Map

Ward #3: The Northwest Corner of the Map---- $103k

Ward #4: The Northeast Corner of the Map- $ 71k

Wow--- So the most PUB areas in Worthington are both the most affluent and also the most Middle-Class (And least affluent part of the City)!!!!

The Ward (#3) with the largest % drop of the votes is relatively upper Middle Class, and the DEM stronghold is solidly Middle Class, but basically only the 3rd wealthiest ward in terms of MHI....

OK---- so maybe Race/Ethnicity can explain some of the variances by Wards within Worthington?


Problem is that the City is so overwhelmingly Anglo, it really overall doesn't appear to be much of a factor even in a detailed breakdown.

We do have a significant Asian-American population clustered in one of three Census Tracts in Ward #1:

Map of Asian-American Population by Census Tract:



So in Ward #1 we see 14% Asian-American population around Precinct 1-B.... 2016: (66-31 D); 2018 (73-27 D). Roughly 50% of the Asia population is Chinese-American.

It's the most Democratic Precinct now in Ward #1, and also experienced the largest swings towards the DEM in the CD-12 SE....

We do also see a smaller Asian-American population of 5% in Two other Census Tracts in Ward #1, as well as a 7% population in the Northern part of Ward #3.

SO--- since I started looking at Race/Ethnicity as a potential variable, decided to pull numbers on Ancestry by Census Tract to see if that might explain anything....

Here is a Census Tract breakdown by Irish Ancestry for Worthington:



So---- Ward #2 roughly overlaps with the 24-27% Irish Ancestry corner of the map....

Ward #1 has a decent Irish-American Population in the more PUB leaning precincts, and only 15% in the most heavily Asian American precinct/Census Tract.

Ward # 4: Is only 16% Irish-American, but was the Trumpiest Ward in '16, and still swung O'Connor by AVG City margins.

Ward #3: 20% Irish-American, but place with highest vote drop-off from '16 PRES to '18 CD-12 SE, albeit with +15% O'Connor swings!!!

So, if there was a hidden Irish-American surge in Worthington, Ward #2 is the only place where this might be explainable, within the context of Metro Columbus European Ethnic political dynamics.

Now we need to control for AGE, since obviously there were some pretty huge AGE GAP margins in the 2016 Presidential Election???

It gets tricky with the US Census Map tool that I use to easily isolate age, but let's start here....

Here is a Census Tract Map of the % of the TOTAL POPULATION aged 30-39:



Now this appears to clearly indicate that there is a major concentration of Older Millennials concentrated in Ward #2....

Now let's look at the Census Tract Map of TOTAL POPULATION aged 18-39 as a % by Census Tract....



OK--- now we're getting somewhere.... Basically 33% of the entire population of Ward #2 is aged 18-39.... Once you add in the 25% of the population that are Children, you only have 42% of the population that over the age of 40!!!!

We also see how Ward #1 has the lowest % of total population aged 18-39 (Maybe somewhere around 17% ) and maybe somewhere around 22% that are Children, meaning 61% of the population are 40+ Yrs old.

So, it looks like Millennials turned out in force in Ward #2 (Even although it is NOT a college precinct) AND Middle-aged / Older voters turned out in force in Ward #1 (My drop-off chart above).

Now let's look at where the older population is most heavily concentrated in Worthington by Census Tract:



Wait--- what the heck is that one Census Tract in the SW corner of the City where 40% of the Pop are over the age of 60???

Ahhh.... looks like that is Worthington precinct 1-C, one of the more 'Pub precincts in the City these days 2016 PRES: (55-39 D); 2018: (63-37 D).... Still it had a good 10% swing which although it was one of the worst in the City, still wasn't too shabby.

NOW---- What about precinct 4-C???   It swung +22% DEM between '16 and the '18 CD-12 SE, which was the largest swing anywhere within Worthington.

2016: (53-39 D)  +14% D;   2018: (68-32 D)  +36% D.

Precinct Map of Ward #4:



I'm a little confused why this precinct North of Schrock Road swung so heavily Democratic.... it doesn't help that I can't break down Census Tract data into enough detail... Sure we have some Census Block tracts with a younger age cohort within this Precinct, compared to much of the rest of Ward #4, but still...

At this point it's pretty clear that overall Worthington is moving into solidly Democratic Party voting patterns at all Federal Elections, and among most major demographics within the City.

The key question, is what will happen when the voters of places like Worthington go to the polls in November to vote for Statewide Elected offices....

Any more posts like these, Nova and I swear to God I'm going to nominate you for sainthood.

[NOVA Green]

Working through some more places in Franklin County---

Worthington- Pop 13.5k---- 8.4% of Franklin County CD-12 Vote Share (+ 1.8% from '16 GE).

.... SNIP.....

Any more posts like these, Nova and I swear to God I'm going to nominate you for sainthood.

Thanks Badger---- I would accept the nomination, except I suspect that the positions have already been filled, by those much more qualified than myself. (Certainly on the spiritual level at least) 

Now, we could certainly petition to create a Forum Community stickied thread entitled: "The Badger Atlas Sainthood Nomination List" for services rendered to the Forum, but honestly after 10+ Years since I first started posting, again I suspect all of the top slots are already filled by posters that have contributed so much more than I could possibly hope to do for the past, present, and future of my posting history....

But hey---- on a more serious note I rarely throw tons of chips into more detailed level Political Geography analysis that mixes historical detailed level precinct results combined with the social compositions of the electorate....

Since the '16 GE I've put a decent chunk of time into the AL-SEN '17 Special Election, PA CD-18 Special Election, AZ CD-08 Special Election, and now the OH CD-12 Special Election.

Obviously there are other projects that I've worked on, mainly involving Oregon, and to a lesser extent voting patterns of College Precincts from '12 > '16, Upper-Income places that swung heavily towards the Dems in '16, etc....

Now the key question for the consumers of the data that I produce, which would basically be "Internal Atlas Customers" vs "External lurkers" from whom I have no feedback loop, is to what extent there is an interest in continuing to attempt to perform a forensic political science type analysis for the OH CD-12 SE, versus focusing my limited time and resources elsewhere on other projects....

Personally, I have a soft spot for Ohio, having lived there for Four Years way back in my College Days, and am at least interested in working through the Franklin County numbers, and possibly the Delaware County numbers once we get more concrete data, since obviously there is *something* going on there.

Simultaneously I am extremely interested in what we can read from the "Tea Leaves" of the more heavily Manufacturing (Decent sized pockets) and Farming (Small but still symbolically and materially influential within many parts of Ohio) parts of CD-12.

I could throw out guesses as to the whole Provisional/Absentee ballot gig, but we don't really have any historical data to break this down in a competitive D vs R election, let alone down to individual Counties and Communities....

Honestly, Ebsy is the real unsung Hero of the thread, pulling detailed voting info *down to the individual voter name*, including stats such as previous primary voting history by County, and providing us with daily updates and live action feeds as to the numbers that he was seeing....

It was actually a spreadsheet that Ebsy shared with me on Election Weekend Eve, where I started crunching the EV numbers by Municipality, and I posted some graphs for various Counties/Municipalities that I had been following based upon his data, where it was pretty clear we would see massive swings within Franklin and certain parts of Delaware County, BUT we were going to run into major issues in Licking County (Judging by the Newark EV numbers).

So do I continue with the Project or move on elsewhere???

[BuckeyeNut]

NOVA, we would love to have you hop over to the Ohio thread, which has been a bit quiet as of late. Very interested in O'Connor's results in the precincts that overlap with Assembly District 19, 21, and 24, as well as Senate District 19.

[Badger]

Honestly, Ebsy is the real unsung Hero of the thread, pulling detailed voting info *down to the individual voter name*, including stats such as previous primary voting history by County, and providing us with daily updates and live action feeds as to the numbers that he was seeing....

It was actually a spreadsheet that Ebsy shared with me on Election Weekend Eve, where I started crunching the EV numbers by Municipality, and I posted some graphs for various Counties/Municipalities that I had been following based upon his data, where it was pretty clear we would see massive swings within Franklin and certain parts of Delaware County, BUT we were going to run into major issues in Licking County (Judging by the Newark EV numbers).

So do I continue with the Project or move on elsewhere???

Word re: Esby.

And knowing these areas, yes, please continue here.

[Badger]

NOVA, we would love to have you hop over to the Ohio thread, which has been a bit quiet as of late. Very interested in O'Connor's results in the precincts that overlap with Assembly District 19, 21, and 24, as well as Senate District 19.

Ooh! This! THIS!

[NOVA Green]

NOVA, we would love to have you hop over to the Ohio thread, which has been a bit quiet as of late. Very interested in O'Connor's results in the precincts that overlap with Assembly District 19, 21, and 24, as well as Senate District 19.

Is that this thread???

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=253653.msg5413917#msg5413917

I did tell you that after the OH-CD-12 election, I would be happy to share some of the data that I pulled....   

First thing that caught my eye was at the Top of Page 75 on that thread talking about Mike DeWine....

Man, I sipped Ice Tea on his front porch in Greene County was back in the early '90s on a Humid Spring day, and ate some lovely cookies that his wife had baked especially for that occasion where a large number of environmental activists showed up (Arranged in advance) to discuss a few major issues of concern with our local US Congressional Rep.

Maybe time to shift to the Ohio Megathread shortly.   

[BuckeyeNut]

NOVA, we would love to have you hop over to the Ohio thread, which has been a bit quiet as of late. Very interested in O'Connor's results in the precincts that overlap with Assembly District 19, 21, and 24, as well as Senate District 19.

Is that this thread???

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=253653.msg5413917#msg5413917

I did tell you that after the OH-CD-12 election, I would be happy to share some of the data that I pulled....   

First thing that caught my eye was at the Top of Page 75 on that thread talking about Mike DeWine....

Man, I sipped Ice Tea on his front porch in Greene County was back in the early '90s on a Humid Spring day, and ate some lovely cookies that his wife had baked especially for that occasion where a large number of environmental activists showed up (Arranged in advance) to discuss a few major issues of concern with our local US Congressional Rep.

Maybe time to shift to the Ohio Megathread shortly.   

That is the one!

As far as I know, Mrs. DeWine still does that sort of thing. Of course, the attendance is much larger nowadays...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do we know when the absentees and provisionals will actually be counted?

[BudgieForce]

Do we know when the absentees and provisionals will actually be counted?

18th I think.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do we know when the absentees and provisionals will actually be counted?

18th I think.

oh, great

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was the last possible date for provisional voters to verify their indentity by returning to their precincts with a valid ID.

[Tender Branson]

Bad news for O'Connor:

An OHio election expert says that while about 80-90% of the 3.500 provisional ballots will likely be counted as valid, he only expects some 20-30% of the remaining absentee ballots (5.000) to be counted:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/absentee-provisional-ballots-will-be-counted-aug-18-to-determine-ohio-special-election/1357557347

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bad news for O'Connor:

An OHio election expert says that while about 80-90% of the 3.500 provisional ballots will likely be counted as valid, he only expects some 20-30% of the remaining absentee ballots (5.000) to be counted:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/absentee-provisional-ballots-will-be-counted-aug-18-to-determine-ohio-special-election/1357557347

Not that Danny wins, but if anything this should be considered good news for him.

[Devout Centrist]

If 80% of the provisional ballots are counted, that comes out to 2,748. And if 20% of the absentees are counted, that will amount to 1,009 total ballots. Adding that up gives us a grand total of 3,757 votes. O'Connor needs at least 1,755 votes to win (I'm using the SOS website instead of the New York Times in order to remain as conservative as possible.) That means he has to win at least 73.5% of the remaining vote.

However, accounting for the tabulation error from Franklin county and the potential for a higher number of ballots, that percentage drops to anywhere from 64% to 71%. Still unlikely that he wins, but it probably puts the race into recount territory.

[Sir Mohamed]

Bad news for O'Connor:

An OHio election expert says that while about 80-90% of the 3.500 provisional ballots will likely be counted as valid, he only expects some 20-30% of the remaining absentee ballots (5.000) to be counted:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/absentee-provisional-ballots-will-be-counted-aug-18-to-determine-ohio-special-election/1357557347

Forget about it, go on to November. This thing is winnable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, there's no way O'Connor can make up his deficit on just that.

[Tender Branson]

The O'Connor campaign just said they expect not more than 1.000 of the 5.000 remaining absentee ballots to be counted.

Those and the 3.000 or so valid provisional ballots are not enough to make up his deficit.

With just 4k votes left, he'd net only 800 more votes if he wins 60% of them.

That is only half he needs. It would bring him into re-count territory though.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/oconnors-campaign-hopeful-for-a-recount-in-12th-district

[Brittain33]

The O'Connor campaign just said they expect not more than 1.000 of the 5.000 remaining absentee ballots to be counted.

Those and the 3.000 or so valid provisional ballots are not enough to make up his deficit.

With just 4k votes left, he'd net only 800 more votes if he wins 60% of them.

That is only half he needs. It would bring him into re-count territory though.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/oconnors-campaign-hopeful-for-a-recount-in-12th-district

And also, "f the Green Party candidate" territory.

[IceSpear]

Recounts rarely change vote totals, so unlike with the counting of the remaining ballots, I don't think he should bother waiting for it.

On to November, I guess.