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  Dem Convention
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Gustaf
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« on: December 29, 2003, 10:10:02 am »

Now this might be me not knowing enough about US politics again, but here goes a few questions about the Dem primary:

Dean seem to be polling at roughly 30% in the Dem primary. There is proportional allocation in most states. Shoudn't this make it hard for the man to capture an absolute majority of the delegates? Secondly, what happens to the delegates for candidates who later drop out? Do they switch their alignment or what?  
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tweed
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« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2003, 10:11:25 am »

Now this might be me not knowing enough about US politics again, but here goes a few questions about the Dem primary:

Dean seem to be polling at roughly 30% in the Dem primary. There is proportional allocation in most states. Shoudn't this make it hard for the man to capture an absolute majority of the delegates? Secondly, what happens to the delegates for candidates who later drop out? Do they switch their alignment or what?  
I think what happens is when the other candidates drop dead in the primary, they release their delagates and they will gon to the nominee, most likely.  Also, when the nomination is decided, Dean will get all of the delagates from the states that he is the only candidate.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: December 29, 2003, 10:15:17 am »

Now this might be me not knowing enough about US politics again, but here goes a few questions about the Dem primary:

Dean seem to be polling at roughly 30% in the Dem primary. There is proportional allocation in most states. Shoudn't this make it hard for the man to capture an absolute majority of the delegates? Secondly, what happens to the delegates for candidates who later drop out? Do they switch their alignment or what?  
I think what happens is when the other candidates drop dead in the primary, they release their delagates and they will gon to the nominee, most likely.  Also, when the nomination is decided, Dean will get all of the delagates from the states that he is the only candidate.

But then you are assuming that it will be decided when the convention comes around. What if we get a Reagan-Ford situation and it actually goes the whole way, with two or more candidates in the running upto the convention? It does seem more likely to happen than in a number of previous instances.  
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2003, 10:18:15 am »

No, you know who the nominee is way before the convention.  even if Dean only has a handful of delagates by Feb. 3, he can be declared the winner.  This is because Dean will be the only candidate left on the remaining states except for a jerk like LaRouche, who usually releases his delagates before the convention.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2003, 10:22:01 am »

No, you know who the nominee is way before the convention.  even if Dean only has a handful of delagates by Feb. 3, he can be declared the winner.  This is because Dean will be the only candidate left on the remaining states except for a jerk like LaRouche, who usually releases his delagates before the convention.

But what other candidates stay on the ballot after Feb. 3 b/c they still think they have a chance? Or is that impossible?
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tweed
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« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2003, 10:24:53 am »

No, you know who the nominee is way before the convention.  even if Dean only has a handful of delagates by Feb. 3, he can be declared the winner.  This is because Dean will be the only candidate left on the remaining states except for a jerk like LaRouche, who usually releases his delagates before the convention.

But what other candidates stay on the ballot after Feb. 3 b/c they still think they have a chance? Or is that impossible?
They usually never do.  Most are loyal to their party and do not want to hurt the eventual nominee.  but a no-chancer like LaRouche stays on.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2003, 10:27:13 am »

No, you know who the nominee is way before the convention.  even if Dean only has a handful of delagates by Feb. 3, he can be declared the winner.  This is because Dean will be the only candidate left on the remaining states except for a jerk like LaRouche, who usually releases his delagates before the convention.

But what other candidates stay on the ballot after Feb. 3 b/c they still think they have a chance? Or is that impossible?
They usually never do.  Most are loyal to their party and do not want to hurt the eventual nominee.  but a no-chancer like LaRouche stays on.

But what if there is no clear winner, if two candidates are neck to neck, or if there are a number of states coming up expected to go strongly for a runner-up? IN short, what if there is not one obvious winner by that time? And if there is strong interest against one candidate, like there might be against Dean.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2003, 10:29:55 am »

No, you know who the nominee is way before the convention.  even if Dean only has a handful of delagates by Feb. 3, he can be declared the winner.  This is because Dean will be the only candidate left on the remaining states except for a jerk like LaRouche, who usually releases his delagates before the convention.

But what other candidates stay on the ballot after Feb. 3 b/c they still think they have a chance? Or is that impossible?
They usually never do.  Most are loyal to their party and do not want to hurt the eventual nominee.  but a no-chancer like LaRouche stays on.

But what if there is no clear winner, if two candidates are neck to neck, or if there are a number of states coming up expected to go strongly for a runner-up? IN short, what if there is not one obvious winner by that time? And if there is strong interest against one candidate, like there might be against Dean.
That has happened but not recently.  I think the 1968 Republican nomination was decided at the convention.  but usually, the nominee is decided way defore the convention, and that is probably what will happen this year.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2003, 10:32:26 am »

No, you know who the nominee is way before the convention.  even if Dean only has a handful of delagates by Feb. 3, he can be declared the winner.  This is because Dean will be the only candidate left on the remaining states except for a jerk like LaRouche, who usually releases his delagates before the convention.

But what other candidates stay on the ballot after Feb. 3 b/c they still think they have a chance? Or is that impossible?
They usually never do.  Most are loyal to their party and do not want to hurt the eventual nominee.  but a no-chancer like LaRouche stays on.

But what if there is no clear winner, if two candidates are neck to neck, or if there are a number of states coming up expected to go strongly for a runner-up? IN short, what if there is not one obvious winner by that time? And if there is strong interest against one candidate, like there might be against Dean.
That has happened but not recently.  I think the 1968 Republican nomination was decided at the convention.  but usually, the nominee is decided way defore the convention, and that is probably what will happen this year.

I thought Nixon chrushed Romney in 1968, but I could be wrong. Reagan-Ford in 1976 went to the convention and was extremely close (I think Ford had a margin of about 100 delegates out of 2200, so Reagan came close). I remember reading somewhere that this was the last time it happened.
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tweed
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« Reply #9 on: December 29, 2003, 10:46:35 am »

Yeah, that's what it was.  I forgot what year.  but still, it rarely happens.  The closest primary I can remeber that didn't go to the convention was 1992 dem, as Clinton was only assured of the nomination in June.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #10 on: December 29, 2003, 11:03:36 am »

Ok - if a candidate gains delegates and then drops out, It is HIS OPTION to release his delegates.  HE can keep them and hold them till the convention or release them to allow them to vote for who they want to, not necessarily the front runner.

If there is no winner on the first ballot of the convention then the delegates are all released and a second ballot is taken where the delegates can vote for whoever they want.
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jaichind
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2003, 08:28:56 pm »

Now this might be me not knowing enough about US politics again, but here goes a few questions about the Dem primary:

Dean seem to be polling at roughly 30% in the Dem primary. There is proportional allocation in most states. Shoudn't this make it hard for the man to capture an absolute majority of the delegates? Secondly, what happens to the delegates for candidates who later drop out? Do they switch their alignment or what?  

True, but when candidates drop out then can release delegates to another candidate, usually for a price to be discussed behind closed doors.  Furthermore, there are about 500 some "super-delegates" that can vote in the Democratic Convention.  They are mostly made up of Democratic office holders and members of the DNC.  They have an incentive to create a united party at the convention and will swing behind Dean if he has the largest block of delegates.  So even if a particular frontrunner polls "only' 30% in the polls it could very well be that he is on his way to victory and an easy majority at the convention.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #12 on: December 29, 2003, 09:19:02 pm »

Love to see it when Hilliary has to vote for Dean at the convention! Smiley
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Nym90
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« Reply #13 on: December 30, 2003, 12:16:24 am »

I'm sure she will too.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #14 on: December 30, 2003, 12:26:09 am »

Yeah, it would just be fun to see her reaction--either ughh I have to vote for this guy, or witha  big smile knowing he is going to get trounced and she can run openly in 2008.
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Nym90
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« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2003, 12:46:57 am »

No, with a big smile because she is happy that he won the nomination because he is the candidate that she thinks is best for the country.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2003, 09:20:27 am »

yeah right! Wink
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