US in 2044

[OBD]

With 7 meters of sea level rise and a terrible drought in the American Southwest, America's demographics in 2044 have shifted drastically. This will be an ongoing project, culminating in a 2044 election.

[wxtransit]

Are all of your TLs just disaster films with an election? What next? The earth colliding with the moon as the 2020 election polls close?

Oh no...maybe I shouldn't have said that

[Devout Centrist]

7 meters?! That seems rather extreme.

[OBD]

I like setting it to an extreme so there is large impacts on the coastal regions. If I set it to a lesser amount, the coastal regions wouldn't be impacted enough. I know, I'm totally evil.

[OBD]

Currently working on EVs and stuff. But, if you want to stand for election for a Senate, Governor, or Presidential spot, please post here! (and name your state and position running for)

[OBD]

Okay guys, so let's begin the process of 2040 reappointment!

To begin, we have 435 house seats to distribute (obviously). Additionally, Washington D.C now has statehood (yay!). However, this did not affect the number of representatives in the house.

Sea level rise is affecting virtually every single coastal state. Meanwhile, a severe drought is plaguing the Western Sun Belt (i.e SoCal, Southern Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas).

We'll start off with Washington. Due to Seattle being right on the Puget Sound, it's very vulnerable to sea level rise, and is a major source of population loss for the state. Tacoma is also decimated, as well as multiple coastal cities. However, most of these refugees move to Eastern Washington, to destinations like Tri-City, Yakima, and Spokane. Factoring in refugees from the East Coast, Washington gains 1 representative, for a total of 11

Oregon is hit less hard than Washington, as it's main city, Portland, is further inland. While Portland did lose it's airport to flooding, a new one was built in North Plains. Due to heavy influx in Eastern Oregon, especially in the Bend-Redmond-Prineville Triangle and Pendelton, Oregon gains 5 representatives for a total of 10 representatives. (call me a biased crap, 'cause I am )

California is nowhere near as lucky as it's northern neighbors, losing a ton of population due to the Central Valley being swamped, along with parts of SanFran and LA. Due to there being little open land in CA, sorry California residents, your state loses 16 representatives. Ouch. The Golden State now has 37 U.S Representatives

In Nevada, the drought is hitting very hard. As Las Vegas is in the drought zone, Nevada takes a large hit to it's population. Loss of 2 representatives, for a total of 2.

Idaho benefits from this scenario, as refugees flock to it's drought and flood free lands. The Great Potato State gets 4 additional representatives, for a total of 6.

That's the first update. I'll add more, and update the map, when I have time.

[OBD]

I don't want to write a ton for Alaska, so long story short 1) It's still a state and 2)It has 1 representative. So yeah.

Hawaii is (obviously) not in the best shape after this! So, it loses one representative, for a grand total of 1 representative.

Arizona is hard hit by the drought, and thus loses a ton of population, most headed north to the American Northwest. Arizona loses 7 representatives. Only 2 now represent the state in the House.

A similar case in New Mexico. Except the state loses all but one of it's representatives.

In Utah, the drought is a problem but not a massive one. The population lost due to drought is cancelled out by the refugees arriving from other states. So Utah still has 4 representatives.

Colorado isn't really hurt by the drought at all. Thus, the Centennial State gains 6 representatives for a total of 13.

Wyoming and Montana are in very similar situations. Both are not affected by the drought or the floods. Both are part of the 'New American Northwest' (sorry Spenstar I'm ripping you off). So, Wyoming gains 3 seats for a total of 4 and Montana gains 4 for a total of 5.

[Heisenberg]

^For Maine and Nebraska, change the election year. I think 1940 or something should fix that.

[OBD]

^For Maine and Nebraska, change the election year. I think 1940 or something should fix that.

Thank you, I'll attempt that. Though tbh I'm probably going to be lazy and force population gain on Maine.

[wxtransit]

I know the coasts got flooded, but how did Texas not gain at least one representative, and actually lose two? The only city directly affected by the sea is Houston, and most of the refuges would presumably head to somewhere like Dallas (in-state)?

And we know how to deal with drought here, we have too much experience

[OBD]

I haven't got to Texas yet bro. Coming up soon however. Also this isn't the Electoral College, as numerous states have only 1 vote on the map.

[OBD]

Now for the Great Plains. The Great Plains benefit population-wise in this scenario, as they are pretty unpopulated right now and won't be affected by any of the nasty climate stuff. North Dakota gains 2 representatives, South Dakota gains 3, Nebraska gains 2, and Kansas gains 2.

Oklahoma, which gets hit by the drought, isn't as lucky. As most of it's population is concentrated in the east, and refugees are coming from Texas and the East, the Sooner State gains 1 representative. Though it's a terrible place to live now tbh.

Texas is an interesting case. It's sort of sandwiched between the drought and sea level rise. However, Texas does have A TON of develop-able land in it's center and eastern regions. So, Texas breaks even and sticks with 36 representatives.

[Skunk]

Oklahoma, which gets hit by the drought, isn't as lucky. As most of it's population is concentrated in the east, and refugees are coming from Texas and the East, the Sooner State gains 1 representative. Though it's a terrible place to live now tbh.

Wait, it wasn't before?

[OBD]

Now for the Deep South. The Deep South is pulverized by sea-level rise, especially Florida and Louisiana, whose populations nosedive. Mississippi, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Alabama are affected as well, but to a lesser degree. As expected, Louisiana sheds 5 representatives, for a total of one.
Florida loses 15 representatives, for a total of 12. Mississippi and Alabama lose one each. South Carolina loses 1 representative as well (Charleston gets swamped). North Carolina, due to it's western highlands that are sheltered from the rises, breaks even. Arkansas gains one as it's inland position makes it a good place to evacuate (for now...)

[OBD]

Oklahoma, which gets hit by the drought, isn't as lucky. As most of it's population is concentrated in the east, and refugees are coming from Texas and the East, the Sooner State gains 1 representative. Though it's a terrible place to live now tbh.

Wait, it wasn't before?

I've never been there, so it totally could be a terrible place to live right now...

[OBD]

Map (some states not updated)

Oh yeah, forgot to update Georgia. The Peach State loses 1 representative.

[OBD]

Now for the Northeastern Update.

Virginia is certainly affected by the flooding, though much of it's population heads inland to the Appalachian Mountains. Still, Virginia loses one representative.

Maryland is hit hard by floods. As Baltimore is affected, Maryland's population goes down by a ton. So, Maryland loses 4 representatives.

Delaware and Rhode Island are hurt, but really can't go down any further. No change. (NOTE: ACTUALLY RI LOSES ONE)

Pennsylvania gains population as refugees from other eastern states settle in the state's western communes. Penn State gets 2 additional representatives.

New Jersey is much harder hit than it's western neighbor. With Newark in shambles and the Atlantic Coast in deep water (literately), New Jersey loses 7 representatives.

New York City is devastated by the floods. While Upstate New York serves as a refugee base, New York City is so large Upstate New York can't hold all of it's refugees. The Empire State loses 4 representatives.

Connecticut and Massachusetts are both heavily affected, as their major cities lie along the coast. So, Connecticut loses 3 representatives and Massachusetts loses 4.

Interestingly, Vermont benefits from this. Due to it's secluded mountain location, the state gains a representative.

New Hampshire breaks even, and Maine loses 1 to round out the Northeast.

[OBD]

Another Map (some states still not updated)

Up next is the Midwest, and you can predict what's gonna happen.

(Note: THANK YOU HEISENBERG )

[OBD]

At this point, we have taken 30 seats away from innocent states for various reasons. Now, it's time to give them back. To the Midwest.

There are 11 states in the Midwest (including the Appalachian States). So, each state gains about 3 representatives, on average. Wow.

Starting with Minnesota. The state gets 3 additional seats.

Wisconsin also gains 3 seats.

Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio are already quite populated, and only get 2 seats each.

Indiana gains 3 seats.

Missouri gains 3 seats as well.

Iowa gains 3 seats, as it has a lot of open space.

West Virginia gains 2 seats. It is not that populated, but it's mountainous terrain makes it difficult to develop.

Kentucky gains 3 seats.

Tennessee is the big winner here, it gets 4 seats.

[OBD]

FINAL MAP

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP

[OBD]

POLITICAL MAP

Code:

[OBD]

Justifications
Firstly, I know there are a TON of toss-up and lean states, in fact there are nearly no solid red, or blue (Atlas colors) states. However, Democrats do hold an advantage. As America's electorate has shifted left, the GOP has yet to make much change to their platform. But, the GOP is left from where it was in '16. This, combined with the Democratic surge in the Rockies and the Plains has left the GOP without a solid base. The Democrats meanwhile still have an advantage in the Northeast, and the West. Due to the realignment, almost every state is within contention.

The Midwest is a lot (Atlas) redder to the influx of liberal-minded refugees from the east.

The South, hit the hardest by the drought and floods, is now solidly blue, as the urban liberal votes packed up and headed to other regions.

The Northeast and West Coast, both heavily hit by floods, have shifted right for similar reasons as the South. However, they are still left-leaning overall.

The Plains received a ton of refugees from all regions, and have thus shifted left.

The 2044 election will be interesting, as both candidates will be campaigning in virtually every American region.

[OBD]

Note:

Republican or leaning Republican: 141
Toss: 150
Democrat or leaning Democrat: 247

[OBD]

2040 Election Results

President Ryan Baker (R-MA)/Vice President Fredrick Khan (R-KY) 306 electoral votes 52.03%
Senator Brock Simmons (D-WY)/Governor Rena Smith (D-CA) 232 electoral votes 45.71%

[cvparty]

this would be a lot more interesting if it were realistic