New Zealand General Discussion: PM Jacinda

[Vega]

A new general discussion thread for a new government.

[Pericles]

This outcome is great news and I'm looking forward to the next 3 years under Jacinda Ardern's government.

[mvd10]

I've found my new left-wing scapegoat I suppose

[136or142]

New Zealand may be about to face the biggest shift in economic gears since 1984

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/97662167/new-zealand-may-be-about-to-face-the-biggest-shift-in-economic-gears-since-1984

She may not have enough time in a single term, but I expect to see Ardern ruin New Zealand's economy with her post Keynesian and genuinely socialist (nationalization of industry) economic views just as Trump is tying to ruin the United State's economy with his incoherent economic views.

If Macron succeeds, it wouldn't surprise me if France has the best economic growth in a few years.

[JonHawk]

I expect NZ to swing back to National strongly in 2020. I just find her so unappealing and rigid.

[Pericles]

I think a lot of good policies will be implemented and this will be a transformative government that NZ needs; free tertiary, tackling child poverty, more spending on health and education, action on climate change and swimmable rivers, building more houses and solving the housing crisis and so much more. Plus the Greens got a referendum on legalizing cannabis.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I expect NZ to swing back to National strongly in 2020. I just find her so unappealing and rigid.

You gotta give Jacinda credit for being shrewd enough to win the support of NZ First. She must have offered something significant to make this happen, and English likely offered nothing to them, assuming they'd just fall in line because their politics were so closely aligned. YYYUUUGE mistake. She did what was required to take power. English played it safe and got burned. Give her the credit she deserves.

[Dereich]

I expect NZ to swing back to National strongly in 2020. I just find her so unappealing and rigid.

You gotta give Jacinda credit for being shrewd enough to win the support of NZ First. She must have offered something significant to make this happen, and English likely offered nothing to them, assuming they'd just fall in line because their politics were so closely aligned. YYYUUUGE mistake. She did what was required to take power. English played it safe and got burned. Give her the credit she deserves.

It sounds like you're saying she should be admired for selling out to gain power. What an accomplishment.

[mileslunn]

Will be interesting with how unpredictable Winston Peters is, it was almost a curse whomever formed government.  Interestingly enough Canada is no longer alone amongst the Anglosphere countries with a non-Conservative government although considering how close Australia, UK, and US were and the polls now I certainly wouldn't be surprised if those three swing leftwards next election but still too early to say for sure.  Interestingly enough if FTFP were used in all Anglosphere countries, only Canada would have a progressive government.  With PR however all might have progressive governments as in Australia on the first round, Labor + Greens > Liberals/National Party and only those four cracked the 5% threshold.  In US also Democrats would win while Britain would be a messy hung parliament with the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power although assuming the 5% threshold would apply to each constituent country instead of the UK as a whole you would probably have on the right Conservatives + DUP + UUP slightly less than Labour + SNP + Plaid Cymru + Greens + SDLP but neither getting a majority and the Liberal Democrats flat out said they would support neither side.  Greens would win one constituent seat, but no list seats while UKIP would come up empty handed unless you had no minimum threshold like the Netherlands.  Canada would go progressive no matter which system was used.  For AV, US would have definitely gone Hillary Clinton if straight up popular vote, but if using the electoral college would have been a nail biter so in US, UK, and NZ could have gone either way under this system.

In the other thread someone was saying its been a bad year for social democracy.  That is true in Europe, but less so outside of Europe.  The only actual win so far in Europe was in Malta although Iceland looks like it might swing left on October 28th.  Germany was a disaster while in Netherlands and France, social democrats had worst showing ever, but further left parties improved somewhat although their improvement was weaker than the drop in social democratic parties.  Interestingly enough the right in those two was pretty flat, it was more the centre i.e. D66 and En Marche that saw bigger rises.  Austria was a bad showing, but not as bad as some thought and in theory the SPO still could form government but seems highly unlikely.  Norway was a disappointment especially after leading in the polls for most of the last three years but they also got screwed over by the minimum threshold being at 4%.  If it were 5% like New Zealand, Labour would have won as the Liberals and Christian Democrats would have not made it into parliament while if at 3% or 0% like Netherlands the Greens in the former and both Reds and Greens in the latter would have made it in and those two almost certainly would have thrown their support behind Labour even if they were outside the coalition.  Britain though was a good result for Labour as despite falling short, they vastly exceeded expectations and saw their biggest increase in popular vote in one election since 1945 never mind Labour in the UK is one of only a handful of social democratic parties that actually managed to crack the 40% mark anywhere, something NZ Labour couldn't even do.  More importantly if you want to live in a neighbourhood that is over 75% social democratic, I cannot think of any in other countries, but plenty in the large cities in the UK like parts of London, central Manchester, central Birmingham, and Liverpool.

But outside of Europe it was not as bad for social democratic parties.  In Australia, the only state election was Western Australia where Labor won a landslide in what is traditionally the most conservative state.  In Canada, the NDP underperformed in Nova Scotia but they did manage to form government in BC although much like in New Zealand they got fewer votes and seats than the BC Liberals and had to rely on the Greens to put them over the top.  But at least with a BC Liberal being the speaker it looks like Canada will have one NDP provincial government at the time of the next federal election whereas if they didn't win in BC, there would likely be no NDP governments in Canada at any level as it looks unlikely the Alberta NDP will get re-elected.

Another interesting trend is the number of young leaders under 40 elected.  Macron, Ardern, and Kurz in Austria are all under 40 and I don't think we've seen so many young leaders ever win in one year.

[mileslunn]

New Zealand may be about to face the biggest shift in economic gears since 1984

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/97662167/new-zealand-may-be-about-to-face-the-biggest-shift-in-economic-gears-since-1984

She may not have enough time in a single term, but I expect to see Ardern ruin New Zealand's economy with her post Keynesian and genuinely socialist (nationalization of industry) economic views just as Trump is tying to ruin the United State's economy with his incoherent economic views.

If Macron succeeds, it wouldn't surprise me if France has the best economic growth in a few years.

Interesting although I think she would look like a conservative if heaven forbid Corbyn wins the next UK election since if you want to talk about left wing illiterate he resembles it far more than Ardern.  And if he is not scary enough, Melenchon if heaven forbid wins in 2022 would turn France into a basketcase.  Yes more left wing than what New Zealand is used to, but there are worse options elsewhere.  At the same time the fact she scraped by might temper the government from going too far knowing if they do they will lose 2020 whereas if it was a landslide I think the reforms would be much bigger.

[136or142]

New Zealand may be about to face the biggest shift in economic gears since 1984

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/97662167/new-zealand-may-be-about-to-face-the-biggest-shift-in-economic-gears-since-1984

She may not have enough time in a single term, but I expect to see Ardern ruin New Zealand's economy with her post Keynesian and genuinely socialist (nationalization of industry) economic views just as Trump is tying to ruin the United State's economy with his incoherent economic views.

If Macron succeeds, it wouldn't surprise me if France has the best economic growth in a few years.

Interesting although I think she would look like a conservative if heaven forbid Corbyn wins the next UK election since if you want to talk about left wing illiterate he resembles it far more than Ardern.  And if he is not scary enough, Melenchon if heaven forbid wins in 2022 would turn France into a basketcase.  Yes more left wing than what New Zealand is used to, but there are worse options elsewhere.  At the same time the fact she scraped by might temper the government from going too far knowing if they do they will lose 2020 whereas if it was a landslide I think the reforms would be much bigger.

Maybe I've confused Corbyn's economic policies for Ardern's, but I don't remember much difference between the two of them.

[mileslunn]

New Zealand may be about to face the biggest shift in economic gears since 1984

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/97662167/new-zealand-may-be-about-to-face-the-biggest-shift-in-economic-gears-since-1984

She may not have enough time in a single term, but I expect to see Ardern ruin New Zealand's economy with her post Keynesian and genuinely socialist (nationalization of industry) economic views just as Trump is tying to ruin the United State's economy with his incoherent economic views.

If Macron succeeds, it wouldn't surprise me if France has the best economic growth in a few years.

Interesting although I think she would look like a conservative if heaven forbid Corbyn wins the next UK election since if you want to talk about left wing illiterate he resembles it far more than Ardern.  And if he is not scary enough, Melenchon if heaven forbid wins in 2022 would turn France into a basketcase.  Yes more left wing than what New Zealand is used to, but there are worse options elsewhere.  At the same time the fact she scraped by might temper the government from going too far knowing if they do they will lose 2020 whereas if it was a landslide I think the reforms would be much bigger.

Maybe I've confused Corbyn's economic policies for Ardern's, but I don't remember much difference between the two of them.

No you are right on them, just more degree.  A few comparisons is re-nationalization.  Corbyn promises to re-nationalize railways, postal service, and utilities.  Peters who junior partner promises to buy back the 49% of shares sold for electricity generation companies, however no plans on renationalizing gas, while rail has already been renationalized and postal service and water is still government owned in New Zealand unlike UK.  As for other issues, Corbyn promises free tuition while Ardern will work towards it but over time.  On Corporate taxes, Ardern will not raise them whereas Corbyn will although it is 19% in UK and 28% in New Zealand and Corbyn will raise them to 26%.  On top marginal rates, Ardern will not raise them even though New Zealand is at only 33% which is one of the lowest in the OECD while UK is in the middle at 45% and Corbyn plans to raise to 50% which would put them on the high side and with his big spending will probably go even higher possibly as high as 60% which would be the highest in the OECD.  Ardern though did she would consider introducing a capital gains tax, but after the backlash which is probably why she didn't come in first in votes and the Labour + Green coalition was not viable, she promised to still consider but would not implement until after the next election.  She is though unlike Corbyn quite protectionist as she wants to pull out of the TPP and introduce a foreign buyer's tax as well as bring in tougher foreign ownership restrictions and cut immigration levels whereas Corbyn has always been lukewarm on EU membership but does favour free trade with other countries but wants more worker's rights chapters so there isn't a race to the bottom.

So in sum she is definitely left leaning, but seems less risky than Corbyn IMHO.  Melenchon is off the charts ridiculous and the fact he would have beat Francois Fillion in a head to head match is scary.  Against Le Pen I can maybe see although both would have been economic disasters for France.  I think the real problem with many progressive leaders is they have lost much of their traditional blue collar support from older voters thus why most social democratic parties are in disarray and the only way to compensate for this is to do well amongst millennials who unfortunately seem to like a lot of economic policies that were disasters in the 70s, but it seems each generation has to learn the hard way. 

[Phony Moderate]

It already feels like the 1970s to much of the millennial generation, hence their voting patterns. The Boomers, in general, had it better, hence they never went more radical in their voting patterns than Gough Whitlam, Eugene McCarthy and Pierre Trudeau.

[mileslunn]

Is it really that much tougher for millennials or is more expectations.  I think in the 70s with the great depression and World War II still fresh in people's memories people were happy that their standard of living and quality of life was significantly better than their parents.  There is the assumption each generation will be better off, but doesn't there come an upper limit and I think what you are seeing in the developed world is we have reached that so contrary to what some think, millennials are not worse off than parents although they face some challenges they didn't face but also opportunities too, but they aren't better off.  In the developing world it is off course a much different story and I suspect in places like China and India despite being much poorer than the West you probably see a strong degree of satisfaction amongst millennials since they are doing much better than their parents were.

[Pericles]

University used to be free, for example Steven Joyce could to fail Economics and get a Zoology degree for free but now want to stop current youth from getting the same.

[mileslunn]

University used to be free, for example Steven Joyce could to fail Economics and get a Zoology degree for free but now want to stop current youth from getting the same.

In UK I know it once was.  Was it also in New Zealand too.  In Canada and the US, we have never had free tuition and doubt it will come anytime soon.  While popular amongst students, generally has limited support amongst those over 30.

[Zioneer]

Fun fact, she is the first ex-Mormon leader of any country. Second if you count the leader of the California Republic revolt, which I don't.

[Pericles]

University used to be free, for example Steven Joyce could to fail Economics and get a Zoology degree for free but now want to stop current youth from getting the same.

In UK I know it once was.  Was it also in New Zealand too.  In Canada and the US, we have never had free tuition and doubt it will come anytime soon.  While popular amongst students, generally has limited support amongst those over 30.

In the US it is becoming Democratic Party policy so could well happen. Indeed the generational divide features here in the debate, but it will be made free under Labour. I think overall it will be beneficial politically(as well as good policy) as the students are most invested in it and it'll also held some older voters too.

[JonHawk]

I expect NZ to swing back to National strongly in 2020. I just find her so unappealing and rigid.

You gotta give Jacinda credit for being shrewd enough to win the support of NZ First. She must have offered something significant to make this happen, and English likely offered nothing to them, assuming they'd just fall in line because their politics were so closely aligned. YYYUUUGE mistake. She did what was required to take power. English played it safe and got burned. Give her the credit she deserves.

What she offered him was an extra portfolio. Congrats.

[Sestak]

Fun fact, she is the first ex-Mormon leader of any country. Second if you count the leader of the California Republic revolt, which I don't.

CALIFORNIA REPUBLIC FOREVER!!!

[Sestak]

Ardern has announced who the Labour members of Cabinet will be:

David Clark
Clare Curran
Kelvin Davis
Chris Hipkins
Iain Lees-Galloway
Andrew Little
Nanaia Mahuta
Stuart Nash
Damien O'Connor
David Parker
Grant Robertson
Jenny Salesa
Carmel Sepuloni
Phil Twyford
Megan Woods

In addition, it looks like the NZF cabinet members will be:

Winston "let me just leave you hanging for ages" Peters
Ron Mark
Tracey Martin
Shane Jones

Now we just have to wait to see who's getting what posts.

It looks like Robertson will have Finance, as Winston said NZF didn't get the role.

I also assume Winston will have asked for and recieved Foreign Affairs.

Are there any other positions we know for sure?

[mileslunn]

University used to be free, for example Steven Joyce could to fail Economics and get a Zoology degree for free but now want to stop current youth from getting the same.

In UK I know it once was.  Was it also in New Zealand too.  In Canada and the US, we have never had free tuition and doubt it will come anytime soon.  While popular amongst students, generally has limited support amongst those over 30.

Maybe I am not up on views elsewhere, but I know in Quebec which is one of the more socially democratic provinces in Canada, there were big protest against tuition fee hikes 5 years ago yet polls showed 2/3 supported the government's decision to hike them.  That being said there could be a generational change.  Although I think in Europe including UK, the idea of free tuition has always had more support than in North America.
In the US it is becoming Democratic Party policy so could well happen. Indeed the generational divide features here in the debate, but it will be made free under Labour. I think overall it will be beneficial politically(as well as good policy) as the students are most invested in it and it'll also held some older voters too.

[mileslunn]

Jacinda Ardern is now officially PM, just sworn in with her cabinet.

[Shadows]

It has been promised the minimum wage will increase from $15.75 currently to $16.50 in April, 2018, a rise of $0.75. The minimum wage has increased by $0.50 every year since 2013 under a National-led government. However, the Labour-led government yesterday announced it will increase the minimum wage to $20 per hour by 2021.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/minimum-wage-rise-needed-so-workers-can-survive-says-pm-elect-jacinda-ardern

Ms Ardern has cited New Zealand’s poverty and homelessness among her top priorities, yesterday calling capitalism a “blatant failure” in her country. Today, she doubled down. “There is no point gloating about the economic growth of a nation if you have some of the highest rates of homelessness in the developed world,” local media quoted Ms Ardern as saying. “My view is there a role for us to play where we are being much more proactive and intervening where there are signs the market is failing our people.” Said she was not concerned her comments might trigger a “winter of discontent” with the New Zealand business community.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/jacinda-ardern-capitalism-has-failed-new-zealanders/news-story/d8dd86ac01419bcd6e8a1b7ebdbf03bc

And to the delight of non-religious people around the world, Ardern didn’t include the phrase “so help me God” at the end of either one. Nor did she place her hand on the Bible when she said them. She also replaced the word “swear,” which could have religious overtones, with “solemnly, sincerely, and truly declare and affirm.”

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2017/10/26/new-zealand-prime-minister-takes-non-religious-oath-of-office-without-bible/#Stz6YEexWegAtayo.99

20 $ Minimum Wage, Capitalism has failed, irreligious nature & oath without Bible.  Even after Corbyn's proposed Corporate Tax increase UK rates will still be lower than NZ. Corbyn wanted a 10 Pounds Minimum wage which is around 12$.

Jacinda also personally supports a Capital Gains tax so that could sometimes be in the horizon when the time is right & people are ready.

[Shadows]

Labour leader Jacinda Ardern is committing to lifting 100,000 New Zealand children out of poverty by 2020 if her party is elected."My goal is to eradicate child poverty in New Zealand," she said. "We can lift about 50,000 as well, when it comes to the extra 50,000 that of course is something that we'll have to set targets for in government ... Our package relative to his at budget time actually did more for lower or middle-income families. "He said he'll do 50 [thousand] based on his tax package, the extra 50 [thousand] I assume that means he's going to have another tax package.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/338701/labour-would-lift-100-000-children-out-of-poverty-by-2020-ardern

''My government will have a key focus on reducing child poverty. ''As prime minister, I want to see urgent progress in this area. "That is why we will be introducing measures and targets to ensure our policies across government are making a difference to the lives of children.''

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/election-2017/child-poverty-cut-key-focus