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Author Topic: October Elections Tracker (All elections)  (Read 2319 times)
Deputy GM Encke
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« on: October 19, 2017, 10:10:41 pm »
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October Elections Tracker (All Elections)
As always, I will be tracking the election via maps and a very large spreadsheet (complete with crosstabs). Eight elections are occurring simultaneously: President, House, Chamber, Southern Governor, Assembly, Lincoln Governor, Lincoln Senate, and Fremont Senate, so I will be rather busy this weekend. The spreadsheet will almost always be more up-to-date than the maps, so check that first for the latest results.


Last vote counted (sheet): Siren
Last vote counted (map): Siren

Invalid votes: wxtransit (Federal, regd too late),
Greedo (Federal, deleted his post),
CMB222 (Federal, less than 10 posts),
BigVic (Lincoln, not valid federally),
New Canadaland (Federal, less than 10 posts),
anty1691 (Fremont, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts),
vern (Lincoln, moved regions too late),
bore (Lincoln, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts),
Tirnam (Fremont, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts)
Talleyrand (Lincoln, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts)
JoMCaR (Federal, less than 10 posts)
Admiral President (Assembly, wrong format)
Vosem (Assembly, wrong format)
drewmike87 (Lincoln, not valid federally + Federal, less than 10 posts)

SPREADSHEET




« Last Edit: October 23, 2017, 12:02:23 am by Deputy GM Encke »Logged
Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2017, 10:12:00 pm »
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« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 10:31:44 pm by Deputy GM Encke »Logged
Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2017, 10:12:47 pm »
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« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 11:34:23 pm by Deputy GM Encke »Logged
Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2017, 01:19:18 am »
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Up to date.
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Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2017, 11:20:21 am »
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Spreadsheet is now fully up to date. Maps will not be updated for at least another ~3 hours because I have class.

In the presidential election, fhtagn has a narrow majority, with 17 votes to Truman's 10, Lumine's 4, and LLR's 2. On the final ballot, fhtagn leads by a larger margin (20 to 11).

The House vote is slightly closer, with 17 votes for federalist candidates, 13 for labor, 1 for independents, and 1 write-in. The quota (using the droop method) is 4.

The Senate race is currently a landslide for Siren. The Lincoln gubernatorial race is also a landslide for lok (so far).

R2D2 leads the senate race 5-2.
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Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2017, 02:56:00 pm »
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Maps are (mostly) updated!
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Former President Truman
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2017, 06:25:43 pm »
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Only on Atlas would the major center-left party be leading in Alaska and trailing in California. Tongue
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Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2017, 06:31:23 pm »
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Only on Atlas would the major center-left party be leading in Alaska and trailing in California. Tongue

Interestingly, California has voted Federalist in every presidential election since the reset, but has voted Labor in the December 2016, February 2017 and August 2017 house elections.
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2017, 08:12:26 pm »
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Only on Atlas would the major center-left party be leading in Alaska and trailing in California. Tongue

Interestingly, California has voted Federalist in every presidential election since the reset, but has voted Labor in the December 2016, February 2017 and August 2017 house elections.

I doubt it holds up this time seeing the registration numbers in CA now.
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Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2017, 12:22:00 pm »
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Maps/spreadsheet have been updated.

Fhtagn has a near majority in the presidential race, with 50% of the vote. Truman has 26% and Lumine has 19%.

The Federalists have 60% in the House Popular Vote, and four of their five candidates are at or above the quota (compared to one for Labor).

The Lincoln Senate race has narrowed to a margin of two votes.

Lincoln Assembly votes are being funneled through Blair and ReaganClinton, with very few going to the two independent candidates.

Peebs's write-in of Liam (who should have been on the ballot) raises the number of candidates in the Southern Chamber election to 7, which means that all candidates will be elected (except Liam, but he hasn't posted in months anyway).

In Fremont, Siren retains her senate seat.
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2017, 01:04:28 pm »
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Peebs's write-in of Liam (who should have been on the ballot) raises the number of candidates in the Southern Chamber election to 7, which means that all candidates will be elected (except Liam, but he hasn't posted in months anyway).

Was it confirmed by a reliable source that all southern chamber candidates would be elected?
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Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2017, 01:09:21 pm »
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Peebs's write-in of Liam (who should have been on the ballot) raises the number of candidates in the Southern Chamber election to 7, which means that all candidates will be elected (except Liam, but he hasn't posted in months anyway).

Was it confirmed by a reliable source that all southern chamber candidates would be elected?

Actually, this is open to interpretation.

From one perspective, Peebs writing in Liam should not have an effect, since write-in candidates need to publicly accept write-ins. Liam has not posted since late July (iirc).

From another perspective, Liam should have been on the ballot anyway, and is not technically a write-in candidate, since he declared candidacy several months ago. This would make the number of candidates 8, and thus 7 people would be elected (most people didn't know Liam was running anyway and so it is assumed that the other 7 candidates would be elected).
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2017, 06:54:03 pm »
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I introduced an amendment to shrink the Chamber size but for some reason the Speaker hasn't brought it to the floor. Hopefully new leadership can be more engaged than me and Tim and can make it work, but unless that happens I feel like there's no way a 7-member chamber can be fully active in the current climate. It'll just be a 2-5-ish member chamber with a few empty seats behind dusty nameplates. Oh well!
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2017, 11:35:22 pm »
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Am I blue and Senator R2D2 red in the Lincoln Senator map? We’re both independents, and the key doesn’t include the names.
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Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2017, 11:44:53 pm »
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Am I blue and Senator R2D2 red in the Lincoln Senator map? We’re both independents, and the key doesn’t include the names.

Fixed the names.

It's generally my policy to use the color green for independents. However, when two people of the same party or affiliation are running against each other, I color them by avatar color. I don't like the S-avatar color (too dark) so I made R2D2 red.
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Deputy GM Encke
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2017, 01:21:52 pm »
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Maps have been updated.

Only 10 hours remain in this weekend's elections.

In the presidential election, fhtagn leads by a large margin and with a narrow majority (52.5%), with 45 votes to Truman's 21 and Lumine's 17.

The House Popular Vote is 54-27 in favor of the Federalists.

The Lincoln senate race is currently tied, and has been since yesterday.

In the Assembly, ReaganClinton and Blair will almost certainly be elected. It remains to be seen whether kyc or cxsmith will be the final assemblyman.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2017, 04:17:27 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2017, 04:31:10 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.


You could have accomplished the same in 2014 had you not deregistered and instead ran for President in June of that year. Lumine would have beaten TNF with your vote in the Midwest, as well.


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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2017, 04:46:30 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.


You could have accomplished the same in 2014 had you not deregistered and instead ran for President in June of that year. Lumine would have beaten TNF with your vote in the Midwest, as well.



It's an absurd what you're saying about the presidential election.

And the TNF senate race against Lumine was 4 months earlier, and I believe that Maxwell voted for Lumine if I recall correctly
« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 04:57:23 pm by King Louis XV »Logged

Quote
Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2017, 05:16:59 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.


You could have accomplished the same in 2014 had you not deregistered and instead ran for President in June of that year. Lumine would have beaten TNF with your vote in the Midwest, as well.



It's an absurd what you're saying about the presidential election.

And the TNF senate race against Lumine was 4 months earlier, and I believe that Maxwell voted for Lumine if I recall correctly

Well it wouldn't have been a landslide, but he most certainly would have won. Tongue Remember your entire margin of victory was provided by Feds who didn't like the Sirnick/Dallas ticket.

Maxwell deregistered in January 2014 and was not able to return by law until like April. The Lumine-TNF race was Feb 2014. Clearly your memory is slipping old man Tongue
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2017, 05:20:16 pm »
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wait wait sirnick ran for president?

Sometimes I'm glad Yankee has a better memory than me with these things...
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King Louis XV
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2017, 05:21:04 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.


You could have accomplished the same in 2014 had you not deregistered and instead ran for President in June of that year. Lumine would have beaten TNF with your vote in the Midwest, as well.



It's an absurd what you're saying about the presidential election.

And the TNF senate race against Lumine was 4 months earlier, and I believe that Maxwell voted for Lumine if I recall correctly

Well it wouldn't have been a landslide, but he most certainly would have won. Tongue Remember your entire margin of victory was provided by Feds who didn't like the Sirnick/Dallas ticket.

Maxwell deregistered in January 2014 and was not able to return by law until like April. The Lumine-TNF race was Feb 2014. Clearly your memory is slipping old man Tongue
Remember all the center left voters Sirnick got because he was TPP? In fact the absence of a rightwing ticket made things much more difficult as I was forced to try to get support from federalists. A normal Federalists-Labor run off would have been much classical and I would have got the center leftists vote and still some federalists like DC. A larger victory probably.
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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2017, 05:25:20 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.


You could have accomplished the same in 2014 had you not deregistered and instead ran for President in June of that year. Lumine would have beaten TNF with your vote in the Midwest, as well.



It's an absurd what you're saying about the presidential election.

And the TNF senate race against Lumine was 4 months earlier, and I believe that Maxwell voted for Lumine if I recall correctly

Well it wouldn't have been a landslide, but he most certainly would have won. Tongue Remember your entire margin of victory was provided by Feds who didn't like the Sirnick/Dallas ticket.

Maxwell deregistered in January 2014 and was not able to return by law until like April. The Lumine-TNF race was Feb 2014. Clearly your memory is slipping old man Tongue
Remember all the center left voters Sirnick got because he was TPP? In fact the absence of a rightwing ticket made things much more difficult as I was forced to try to get support from federalists. A normal Federalists-Labor run off would have been much classical and I would have got the center leftists vote and still some federalists like DC. A larger victory probably.

Sure old man! Tongue
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King Louis XV
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2017, 05:26:42 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.


You could have accomplished the same in 2014 had you not deregistered and instead ran for President in June of that year. Lumine would have beaten TNF with your vote in the Midwest, as well.



It's an absurd what you're saying about the presidential election.

And the TNF senate race against Lumine was 4 months earlier, and I believe that Maxwell voted for Lumine if I recall correctly

Well it wouldn't have been a landslide, but he most certainly would have won. Tongue Remember your entire margin of victory was provided by Feds who didn't like the Sirnick/Dallas ticket.

Maxwell deregistered in January 2014 and was not able to return by law until like April. The Lumine-TNF race was Feb 2014. Clearly your memory is slipping old man Tongue
Remember all the center left voters Sirnick got because he was TPP? In fact the absence of a rightwing ticket made things much more difficult as I was forced to try to get support from federalists. A normal Federalists-Labor run off would have been much classical and I would have got the center leftists vote and still some federalists like DC. A larger victory probably.

Sure old man! Tongue
Yankee,
That was probably the election where I spent the most time handling. And I can assure you that the absence of a rightwing ticket was a handicap to me lol.
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Quote
Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2017, 05:28:17 pm »
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wow the right has reached absolute dominance. it's truly something.


You could have accomplished the same in 2014 had you not deregistered and instead ran for President in June of that year. Lumine would have beaten TNF with your vote in the Midwest, as well.



It's an absurd what you're saying about the presidential election.

And the TNF senate race against Lumine was 4 months earlier, and I believe that Maxwell voted for Lumine if I recall correctly

Well it wouldn't have been a landslide, but he most certainly would have won. Tongue Remember your entire margin of victory was provided by Feds who didn't like the Sirnick/Dallas ticket.

Maxwell deregistered in January 2014 and was not able to return by law until like April. The Lumine-TNF race was Feb 2014. Clearly your memory is slipping old man Tongue
Remember all the center left voters Sirnick got because he was TPP? In fact the absence of a rightwing ticket made things much more difficult as I was forced to try to get support from federalists. A normal Federalists-Labor run off would have been much classical and I would have got the center leftists vote and still some federalists like DC. A larger victory probably.

Sure old man! Tongue
Yankee,
That was probably the election where I spent the most time handling. And I can assure you that the absence of a rightwing ticket was a handicap to me lol.

And to me as well. Tongue Plus the time I spent fending off Maxwell for Senate would have been spent working the Presidential election.
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