2020: Elizabeth Warren/Beto O'Rourke vs Mike Pence/Nikki Haley
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  2020: Elizabeth Warren/Beto O'Rourke vs Mike Pence/Nikki Haley
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Author Topic: 2020: Elizabeth Warren/Beto O'Rourke vs Mike Pence/Nikki Haley  (Read 1855 times)
NewYorkExpress
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« on: October 20, 2017, 04:22:14 PM »

President Trump decides not to run for re-election.

Republicans nominate Vice-President Pence, and he selects UN Ambassador Nikki Haley as his running mate.

Democrats have a competitive Primary, but they ultimately nominate Elizabeth Warren, who selects Beto O'Rourke as her running mate (for this scenario, assume O'Rourke defeats Ted Cruz in 2018).

Who wins and why (maps included, please)?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2017, 04:27:03 PM »

President Trump decides not to run for re-election.

Republicans nominate Vice-President Pence, and he selects UN Ambassador Nikki Haley as his running mate.

Democrats have a competitive Primary, but they ultimately nominate Elizabeth Warren, who selects Beto O'Rourke as her running mate (for this scenario, assume O'Rourke defeats Ted Cruz in 2018).

Who wins and why (maps included, please)?

A Beto O'Rourke/Liz Warren ticket would win in a landslide, but the opposite ticket would probably only win by Obama '12 margins.
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Canis
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2017, 05:24:02 PM »

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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2017, 05:53:41 PM »

As someone else said, O'Rourke/Warren would be strong, but vice versa is not. Pence is an easier pill to swallow than Trump, and many of the McMullin/Johnson/write-in Republicans of 2016 are more willing to vote for President Mike Pence. As a result, Pence performs better in the Great Plains, west, and south, however due to fervent social conservatism, underperforms Trump in New England. Warren is able to win Michigan by 4.7 points, and Wisconsin by a slim half-point.

President Mike Pence (R-IN)/Vice President Nikki Haley (R-SC) - 308 EV (50.2%)
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Senator Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) - 230 EV (47.9%)
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2017, 02:33:04 PM »



Whoever wins PA wins the election. I guess I would think Pence might have a slight advantage in PA and ME-02 while Warren has a slight advantage in NV, but Warren could win PA.
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2017, 09:20:46 AM »



Whoever wins PA wins the election. I guess I would think Pence might have a slight advantage in PA and ME-02 while Warren has a slight advantage in NV, but Warren could win PA.

Yea, i think this looks reasonable. Though i might change Florida to tossup because i doubt will win more then 5% there.
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tomhguy
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2017, 09:45:58 AM »

Polling:


In the end...

"Hello and welcome to election night in America, the polls have just closed in the key states of Georgia, Virginia and Florida. Vermont has gone for Warren tonight, as has South Carolina for Pence- the home state of his VP. Also his home state, Indiana has gone for him and the state of Kentucky. Georgia, Florida and Virginia are all too close to call."

"Now it is 7:30 PM and the key states of Ohio and North Carolina have just closed. The state of West Virginia has just gone for VP Mike Pence whilst Ohio and North Carolina are too close to call."


"And now lots of key states have just closed including the tossup of Pennsylvania."


3 Hours later....
"And the first flip of the night, Michigan goes for Warren. This was a state expected to go for warren and it has by a razor thin margin- closer than expected in the polls- this may show trouble in the Midwest tonight!"




1 Hour Later...
"And now we have a major projection- four swing states in one call. The states of Texas,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin and Florida have taken Mike Pence to the White-house- he is the next president of these United States."


Final Map:




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