Which Democrats do you think will actually run for President?

[136or142]

I narrowed my list down as much as possible and still ended up with 13.  Most of these aren't clowns, but it's still a bit hard to take a car (or bus) of that size seriously.

1.Kamala Harris
2.Eric Garcetti
3.Tulsi Gabbard
4.Martin O'Malley
5.John Delaney
6.Seth Moulton
7.Deval Patrick
8.Geoffrey Feiger
9.Amy Klobuchar
10.Steve Bullock
11.Cory Booker
12.Jeff Merkley
13.Julian Castro

[Frodo]

You don't believe Kirsten Gillibrand is going to run? 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Kamala Harris doesn't run then Kirsten is throwing her hat in.

[136or142]

You don't believe Kirsten Gillibrand is going to run? 

She said she wouldn't and seemed pretty serious about it.

[jmsstnyng]

1.Kamala Harris: Yes, she will likely run.

2.Eric Garcetti: He seems to be gearing up for a run, but he stands no chance.

3.Tulsi Gabbard: I do not think she will run. If she does, it'll be a decade from now.

4.Martin O'Malley: He has nothing to lose, except the primary, which he will.

5.John Delaney: He will be the Jim Gilmore of the Democrats.

6.Seth Moulton: He also is gearing up for a run. I hope he looks around and sees that he does not have a real shot. I'll lean towards no, but he is certainly thinking about it.

7.Deval Patrick: No. He is attached to Bain now, so there will be no opening for him. Strange choice for Obama's circle to semi-endorse.

8.Geoffrey Feiger: No.

9.Amy Klobuchar: She may be the Tim Pawlenty of the Democrats. Not just because she is from Minnesota, but they both are not divisive and will be only a few people's first choice. I lean yes for her, because she is positioning herself as the normal politician as opposed to an ideologue or overly partisan.

10.Steve Bullock: Bullock, Harris and Booker are the ones that I am quite sure will run. He could make a good running mate (to someone with pros/cons of a Harris-esque candidate).

11.Cory Booker: Yes, but goodness I do not see the appeal. He seems like a nice guy, but he will not be enough people's first choice. He also comes off as opportunistic and fake. He tries too hard to be charismatic at his speeches. Again, nothing personal, but he seems to be the wrong fit completely for '20.

12. Jeff Merkley: No. If Sanders does not run, someone with more gravitas should be his standard bearer. Maybe a running mate but unlikely.

13.Julian Castro: I hope not. Empty suit. His interviews ooze phoniness and he has accomplished little at HUD.

Not Mentioned:

Bernie Sanders: I hear a good deal of people saying that he will not run, but he is acting like someone who is running in '20. He has clout with his large following, and he is a leader of a movement (like Trump), which can be difficult to find a replacement to a movement leader. Age will matter, but not enough to dissuade him from running again, as of now.

Joe Biden: I do not think he will run unless he feels that the candidates are weak. Remember, Biden did poorly in '88 and '08. He has more gravitas being a well-liked former VP, but he is a moderate who will also have the age issue.

Elizabeth Warren: I switch my prediction with her quite often. She seemed hesitant to run for the Senate which makes me think she will be just as reluctant to run in '20. I lean no, especially since I believe Bernie will run again.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If the big three (Biden, Warren, Sanders) stay out:
Harris
Gillibrand
Booker
Klobuchar
Bullock
Merkeley
O'Malley
Delaney
Moulton

If Warren runs I think Klobuchar and Merkeley will not run.

If Sanders runs Merkeley will not run.

If Biden runs Booker will not run--- I see him endorsing Biden early on hoping for a VP slot to sneak in the White House and make his own run for the Oval easier; Harris stays in but will be angling for a VP spot once she exits the primaries.

ETA: Sherrod Brown is a big MAYBE but I think he could jump in if the national mood is right.

[Mr. Morden]

You don't believe Kirsten Gillibrand is going to run? 

She said she wouldn't and seemed pretty serious about it.

She seems the opposite of serious about it to me.  Yes, she "ruled it out" back in the spring, but then when Katie Couric pressed her on it this summer, she wouldn't talk about it:

http://www.ozy.com/politics-and-power/where-gillibrand-draws-the-line-on-impeaching-trump/79867

And then, according to the NYT story from last month linked here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=233345.msg5808629#msg5808629

when asked at a donor event if she would run for president, she wouldn't rule it out.

And then there's the fact that she's courting national donors even though she's unlikely to face a serious challenge for reelection next year (a project that she started working on within weeks of Clinton's loss last November: https://pagesix.com/2016/11/24/kirsten-gillibrand-reaching-out-to-hillarys-donors/ ), and how she's voting with Booker, Sanders, and Warren against every Trump appointee, and siding with Sanders on virtually every domestic policy issue now, which is the smart play re: getting ahead in the Democratic primaries.  I'm sure all of that is just a coincidence. 

[President Johnson]

- Cory Booker
- Andrew Cuomo
- Kamala Harris
- Chris Murphy
- John Hickenlooper
- Tulsi Gabbard

- maybe Elizebath Warren

Undecided on Bernard. Hopefully he doesn't run.

[politics_king]

1.) John Delaney
2.) Martin O'Malley
3.) Kamala Harris
4.) Tulsi Gabbard
5.) Jeff Merkley
6.) Cory Booker
7.) Andrew Cuomo
8.) Eric Garcetti
9.) Steve Bullock
10.) Catherine Cortez Masto

I think it'll be a very new-faced crowd involved because everyone is playing defense and eyeing 2024. If Trump, somehow was re-elected, which I can fathom. The Democrats will have a 20 person field in 2024.

[JA]

@ Mr. Morden,

Who do you believe is most likely to run?

[Mr. Morden]

@ Mr. Morden,

Who do you believe is most likely to run?

Well, Delaney’s already launched his campaign.  So he’s in.  As for the rest, here’s my rough guess at the probability of running for everyone else who I think has at least a 25% of jumping in:

O’Malley 80%
Booker 75%
Harris 65%
Gillibrand 60%
Cuomo 60%
Warren 55%
Klobuchar 45%
Garcetti 40%
Castro 35%
Sanders 35%
McAuliffe 35%
Biden 30%
Bullock 30%
Moulton 30%
Murphy 30%
Merkley 25%
Gabbard 25%
T. Ryan 25%

Some caveats:

-Biden and Sanders would both be a lot higher on this list of they were 10 years younger.  But I just have my doubts that someone pushing 80 years old really wants to sign up for a presidential campaign, and then 4-8 years as president.  So I give them a substantial discount on their odds based on age.  If not for age, they’d be up at ~70-80%.  But maybe my discount is too high.  I don’t know.

-My odds are not just based on obvious signals, like early primary state visits.  If it were just based on concrete things like that, then folks like Seth Moulton and Tim Ryan would be higher.  And Kander would be on the list.  But people who’ve been elected to major office before (more major than House of Reps or Secretary of State for Missouri) tend to be more likely to run, so that factors in.

-I do think it’s likely that we’ll end up with at least one candidate from outside of politics, like Iger, Schultz, Steyer, or even a “celebrity” candidate.  One such person will probably run, but each of those folks individually is less than 25% likely, so that’s why they’re not included on my list.

[henster]

Some important Qs.

Considering their relationship do both Harris and Warren run, and who bows out for whom?

Would Cory Booker run considering his re-election in 2020?

Will Kirsten Gillibrand run against her Governor Andrew Cuomo?

IMO you have to factor in personal relationships and ambitions a lot of these people are close friends and have a different level of ambition and drive. Like, Booker and Gillibrand are really close and respect each other so he may be less likely to run if she ran but more likely if Cuomo ran and she didn't.

[Mr. Morden]

Considering their relationship do both Harris and Warren run, and who bows out for whom?

Would Cory Booker run considering his re-election in 2020?

Will Kirsten Gillibrand run against her Governor Andrew Cuomo?

John McCain and Fred Thompson were also friends, but that didn't stop them from running against each other in 2008.  And everyone figured that Rubio wouldn't run against mentor Jeb Bush, yet he did.

I don't think these kinds of relationships tend to end up being as important as they're often made out to be.  If you want to be president, and you think you have a shot at winning, then you run.  These folks also tend to have enormous egos, so they're usually convinced that they'd be much better candidates than their "friends", and so would assume that their friend should defer to them rather than the other way around.

What does deter people from running is when they're no longer convinced that they can win.  (Though some of them are not self aware enough to ever realize this.  O'Malley will probably think he can win no matter what.)  And sometimes your "friend" running might hurt your own chances of winning the nomination, to the point where you figure you might be better off waiting until next time.

E.g., maybe Harris thinks she can win only if she has unified support from the black community, and Booker or someone else also being in the race thus convinces her not to run, because it splits her base too much.  Or maybe Gillibrand needs big $ donors from New York state, and if Cuomo runs, then she figures she's not going to be able to get enough of them to have a chance.  I'm not saying that's going to happen, as I definitely think we might get both Cuomo and Gillibrand in the race at the same time (ditto with Booker and Harris), but those are the sorts of things that will factor into their thinking.

[AN63093]

Well, joke candidate or no, Delaney is already running, so obviously him.

Other than him, the only one I'd actually gamble on this far out, is O'Malley.  Although Booker is getting close to that point (he is so transparent in how badly he wants it that it's almost painful to watch... but we're far out enough that I don't know if he'll actually follow through, so I wouldn't put money on it, at least not yet).

Of those that are likely to run, I still think Harris has the best shot of securing the nomination.  This was my opinion over the summer and I haven't seen anything yet to change that opinion.  That being said, I think she's generally one of the weaker candidates for the general, but that's another question.

[AN63093]

What does deter people from running is when they're no longer convinced that they can win.  (Though some of them are not self aware enough to ever realize this.  O'Malley will probably think he can win no matter what.) 

Or maybe you just don't have anything else to do.  I mean, I can't believe that O'Malley is that delusional about his chances, but obviously he's not going to come out and say that, and what else does the guy have to do with his time?

[Mr. Morden]

What does deter people from running is when they're no longer convinced that they can win.  (Though some of them are not self aware enough to ever realize this.  O'Malley will probably think he can win no matter what.) 

Or maybe you just don't have anything else to do.  I mean, I can't believe that O'Malley is that delusional about his chances, but obviously he's not going to come out and say that, and what else does the guy have to do with his time?

That's true.  I think Julian Castro and Terry McAuliffe might be in that category as well.  (Not that they're as likely to run as O'Malley, but that if they do run, it'll be in part because there's nothing else for them to do.)  Castro's already out of office, and not really making any moves on any other office except possibly president, and McAuliffe will be out of office next year and in the same situation.  Neither of them is old enough to retire yet, so unless there's some other office that they want to run for (and those options may be limited) why not run for president?

[Mr. Morden]

Would Cory Booker run considering his re-election in 2020?

I missed this part of your post earlier, but I think yes, Booker is probably going to run despite the fact that his Senate seat is up in 2020.  The filing deadline for his Senate seat is April 2020, so he has the option to "pull a Rubio", and run in the presidential primaries at least through Super Tuesday, and then if it looks like he's not going to win the presidential nomination, he can drop out and switch to the Senate race.

Maybe that won't fly with New Jersey Dems, and some other candidate will take his place in the Senate race, but I don't know that he cares enough about the Senate seat for that to stop him from running for president.

[Del Tachi]

Kamala Harris
Cory Booker
Andrew Cuomo
John Delaney
Elizabeth Warren
Julian Castro
Martin O'Malley
Seth Moulton
Amy Klobuchar

[tosk]

if dems hold VA governor seat McAullife will 100% run i think. he might anyway but who knows. I see Cuomo wants to run but I don't think he will, however it's a distinct possibility. Harris might, obviously has been courted to run. Bullock I think wants to. Moulton will one day. O'Malley will. I actually don't think Biden, Sanders or Warren dont run.

[Inmate Trump]

Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Cory Booker
Steve Bullock
Kamala Harris
Al Franken
Gavin Newsom
Elizabeth Warren
Al Gore

[NewYorkExpress]

John Delaney
Andrew Cuomo
Cory Booker
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren (I actually see Sanders and Warren as perfectly capable of going against each other...Warren wants to make history by being the first female President, and to do that she'll have to beat Sanders)
Kamala Harris
Sherrod Brown (whether or not he wins re-election)
Jason Kander
Bob Iger
Deval Patrick
Kirsten Gillibrand
Amy Klobuchar

May run, but probably won't (or will run as an Independent)

Joe Biden
Mark Cuban
Al Franken
Pete Buttgeig
Steve Bullock
John Hickenlooper
John Bel Edwards

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

1.Kamala Harris
2.Eric Garcetti
3.Tulsi Gabbard
4.Martin O'Malley
5.John Delaney
6.Seth Moulton
7.Deval Patrick
8.Geoffrey Feiger
9.Amy Klobuchar
10.Steve Bullock
11.Cory Booker
12.Jeff Merkley
13.Julian Castro

Of those names, I think the bolded ones will run. I'd like to see the italicized people run, but sadly I don't think they will run (aside from Harris). I don't want Gabbard to run since I don't like her

[Beet]

It will be Harris or Gabbard. That is all.

[Mr. Smith]

Booker, Warren, Biden, and Bullock.

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Here are the 20 people who I think are most likely to jump in the race (not counting Delaney, who's already running):

O’Malley 80%
Booker 80%
Harris 70%
Gillibrand 65%
Cuomo 60%
Warren 55%
Klobuchar 50%
Garcetti 45%
Sanders 40%
Castro 35%
McAuliffe 35%
Biden 35%
Bullock 30%
Moulton 30%
Murphy 30%
T. Ryan 30%
Merkley 25%
Gabbard 25%
Kander 25%
Patrick 25%