What The Heck Was The GOP Thinking To Let Ron Kind Go Unchallenged in 2016?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I mean don't get me wrong, I'm really thankful for the free handout leaving him unchallenged, but seriously, what were you thinking? Sure, it is Lean to Likely D, but seriously, leaving it uncontested, that's like Texdem level apathy.

[VPH]

I can't fathom why. They have a decent bench in the area...

[Mr.Phips]

Kind would be wise to run for Senate in the open seat race in 2022 when redistricting comes. His district will probably be more Republican post redistricting. I mean he's sitting on like $3 million too, so why would he choose to stay in the House for a tough race every two years?

That's assuming Scott Walker gets reelected, which I'm not sure he can under a Republican President.  If Dems have a seat at the redistricting table, Kind's seat will be protected.

[Mr.Phips]

Kind would be wise to run for Senate in the open seat race in 2022 when redistricting comes. His district will probably be more Republican post redistricting. I mean he's sitting on like $3 million too, so why would he choose to stay in the House for a tough race every two years?

That's assuming Scott Walker gets reelected, which I'm not sure he can under a Republican President.  If Dems have a seat at the redistricting table, Kind's seat will be protected.

Not really. Kind's seat now was designed as a D vote sink believe it or not. The only way it can get more Democratic is to split up the 2nd and that'd be ugly as hell. I was actually assuming a split state government with a Democratic Governor, but I doubt it matters much either way. Kind's seat will only get harder for Democrats to hold on to, so he's better off going for broke on an open Senate seat, which might actually be easier for him in 2022 than reelection to the House

It was designed to be a D vote sink in order to make the 7th more Republican.  Making the 3rd more Republican would again make the 7th more Dem, likely to the point where it was an Obama district in 2012.  We also have to consider what a fair redistricting would do to Paul Ryan's district, but that's a completely different topic in and of itself.

[henster]

He still would've won look at Cheri Bustos her and Kind's district are very similar and she managed to pull out a 21 point win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He still would've won look at Cheri Bustos her and Kind's district are very similar and she managed to pull out a 21 point win.

Still worth at least a sacrificial lamb at the very least.

[Free Bird]

There comes a point where you've been around long enough that they figure out to just leave you alone. See Tim Walz.

[SamTilden2020]

TBH no one knew Trump would win here, in addition to above reasoning.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Everyone thought Kind was safe and on top of that, it's still far too early to say whether the huge swing to the Republican party among Midwestern whites (especially WWC voters) is part of a 1) a long-term realignment, 2) a one cycle fluke, 3) a phenomenon which only occurred because Trump himself was on the ballot, or 4) some combination of 2 and 3.  We really won't know until after 2018 at the earliest and possibly not until after 2020.  One wild swing in a batsh!t crazy election cycle does not a realignment make. 

For example, I actually think Democrats are slightly favored to hold MN-1 (especially if Hagedorn is the Republican nominee), am pretty confident that Rod Blum will lose in 2018 (it might not even be close, tbh), and believe that Mike Bost is already in a pure toss-up race down in IL-12.  I could go on, but you get the idea.  Maybe 2016 was a realignment, but we don't know yet since it was just one data point.