What percentage does Sanders get in Vermont vs. Trump if he is the 2020 D nomine

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I'd guess he easily cracks 70%, and if he's doing well nationally I could see him hitting 80% even, keeping in mind that Obama got nearly 68% in Vermont in '08 and '12 despite having zero connection to the state and McCain and Romney were better fits for the state than an unpopular Trump likely will be in 2020.

[NewYorkExpress]

Against Trump?

80-85%

Trump will be horribly unpopular, and Sanders is really well liked in his home state. He's not going to do much worse against Pence either, given how horrible a fit Pence is for New England...maybe Sanders drops to 75%.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

72%/73% or so. I doubt it will be higher than that.

I actually think that's close to his floor in Vermont. It's a tiny state so virtually every eligible voter in the state knows Sanders and most like him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Sanders: 73.89
Trump: 23.45

[Mr. Smith]

Goldwater's Mississippi or LBJ's Rhode Island numbers as the ceiling, Obama's Hawaii as the floor.

[Shadows]

73-75% at most. Surely the GOP will get 20-22% odd of the votes.

[JA]

Let's not forget that Obama in 2008 cracked 67.5% of the vote. In 2012, Sanders won 71.0% and 65.4% in 2006. In 2016, Trump won 30.3% of the vote. So, it's likely that Sanders would erode Trump's 2016 percentage by 5-10 points while reaching levels mirroring or slightly surpassing his 2012 numbers. I'd say his ceiling is around 75% and he'd win 72-75% of the vote.

[Liberalrocks]

80-85%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So I have to be the voice of reason here and say that he won't crack 80%? LOL.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He would win about 68-27.

[Nichlemn]

I really doubt he cracks 80% unless Trump is *extremely* unpopular. 71% is his best performance in a Vermont general election, so I imagine there's at least 25% of Vermont voters who are just never going to vote for Sanders.

It's not unheard of for a candidate to outperform their best ever statewide performance on the Presidential ticket, but it seems to only occur when the candidate had only one previous statewide election (e.g. Carter, Palin) and/or won in a landslide nationally (Reagan 84, FDR). Of course, that's a lot of caveats for a small sample size so I won't say it's super predictive.

[Prince of Salem]

70-80%

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Absent Sanders, I do think VT continues to trend Republican but it will be a long time before it becomes close or anything unless there is a serious shift in Republican strategy and priorities.

[Eraserhead]

Will Trump's name even be printed on the ballots? lol.

[TDAS04]

70-75%.

[cvparty]

no 75-80?

[IceSpear]

Uh, Bernie will lose Vermont. And California as well. Even DC might be competitive. Haven't you heard that Trump's popular vote loss, skin of his teeth electoral college win, and ~35-40% approval rating portend a landslide the likes of which we've never seen before in 2020?

[mgop]

probably more than 85%

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

probably more than 85%

I highly doubt that, unless he's winning nationally by double digits.

[mgop]

probably more than 85%

I highly doubt that, unless he's winning nationally by double digits.

look at primaries last year, bernie got 116 000, and trump 20 000. berniemania is strong in vermont.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Probably similar to the 2016 Dem. primary vs. Clinton.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Probably similar to the 2016 Dem. primary vs. Clinton.

That'd be his ceiling in Vermont IMO. at least 10-15% of Vermont voters must be die-hard Republicans.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Probably similar to the 2016 Dem. primary vs. Clinton.

That'd be his ceiling in Vermont IMO. at least 10-15% of Vermont voters must be die-hard Republicans.

Oh yeah I thought he won 80-20 but it was 86-14. Damn. He'd easily get over 80% though he's a phenomenon in Vermont. Heck he got like 7% of the vote in 2016 as a write-in.