Who was the last Republican to win the black vote?
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  Who was the last Republican to win the black vote?
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Author Topic: Who was the last Republican to win the black vote?  (Read 7919 times)
twenty42
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« on: October 21, 2017, 07:40:32 PM »

I’m pretty sure Hoover won it in 1928, and then FDR won it four times in a row.  Was 1928 the last time though? Eisenhower was pretty pro-integration, and there were still a lot of racist Democratic governors in the South at that point.

Not trying to start any flames, just curious from a historical perspective.
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2017, 07:57:40 PM »

I couldn't find any earlier, but this Gallup info says Stevenson won the 'nonwhite' vote by a significant margin both in 52 and 56. I don't know what the demographics were like in 1952 but I think that means it's probable he won the black vote, but 56 might have been closeish.

I don't have enough posts to add links, search for this:

/poll/9451/election-polls-vote-groups-19521956.aspx
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kcguy
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2017, 08:10:40 AM »

I have no data to back it up, but my gut instinct to your question was Hoover '32.

My impression is that the Black community stuck with the Republicans a little while after everyone else had abandoned the GOP.
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2017, 08:34:46 AM »

I think Eisenhower won the black vote twice.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2017, 04:39:58 PM »

Republican's began to collapse in the black vote in 1934 and 1936. They lost ILL-01 for instance in 1934. They came close to regaining it in 1942 I think, and it was somewhat competitive in 1946, but it has been solid Dem after that.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2017, 07:39:35 PM »

I'm pretty sure it was Hoover 1932. 
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2017, 07:48:33 PM »

Hoover.

Ike got close in 1956 though.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2017, 11:18:43 AM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley
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White Trash
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2017, 01:06:55 PM »

What caused that monumental swing from 1932 to 1936? The New Deal?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2017, 01:50:48 PM »

What caused that monumental swing from 1932 to 1936? The New Deal?

I'd guess more and more Black voters were starting to move toward Democrats (as they had been throughout the 1920s), and the New Deal accelerated it, but I think the biggest reason is that the NAACP actually endorsed a Democrat for the first time in 1936, and I think it had a huge effect on Black voters' willingness to vote for the Democratic ticket.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2017, 02:24:39 PM »

Love this!

A few thoughts:

I read an old article from The Crisis not too long ago in the months leading up to the election, that was airing out grievances with the Republican party. It mentioned that blacks had given 93 percent of their vote to the Republican candidate in the prior election. I can't find the article at this moment: It was from a political science course I took on African-Americans and Civics. I will try and locate it.

I had always hoped to find out just how the Republican ticket fared in 1912. I had erroneously thought that Teddy Roosevelt had goodwill in the black community and would have siphoned a ton of votes from Taft, but I had never realized how often he flip flopped on issues of racial progressivism. He ending school segregation as governor of New York, but then giving up on prosecuting cases of peonage in the South. Hiring black people to advise him, but then handling the Brownsville affair with such callous towards black service men.

I knew that Franklin Roosevelt was able to flip blacks to the Democrat party, but I always thought that was due to the Great Depression and a desperation to try something new after the catastrophic collapse of the economy. I thought blacks actually went back to the GOP post-Roosevelt, and was surprised at Stevenson's margins particularly. I thought black voters were a swing group during the 1952, 56, and 60 elections and was surprised to see Democrats win this demographic so handily. In my mind I imagined President Eisenhower winning a slight majority both times, and then Kennedy flipping it back with a slim margin brought on by his attractiveness as a candidate and the MLK jail phone call.

Kennedy v. Nixon is the only election where you had both candidates campaigning on a record of civil rights and touting enthusiastically as a positive instead of whispering about it to black-only audiences. Though this was the first election to play out with a vast majority of Americans having televisions so appearance was everything. I do wonder how Civil Rights legislation would have panned out if Kennedy had lived or if Nixon had won. I doubt the black vote would have went so drastically to the Democrats otherwise.

I would have loved to see margins of the black vote in a potential Bobby Kennedy v. Richard Nixon race. He was much more popular in the community than his brother and enthusiasm with black voting was extremely high up until Bobby's assassination. MLK's assassination had motivated an entire generation of black voters to organize and participate--- Bobby's death stifled a lot of that enthusiasm.

I think Trump will do historically bad in 2020. As it stands now, Barry Goldwater has performed the worst of any Republican facing a White Democratic candidate. Trump was able to improve on Romney and McCain with Obama off the ballot keeping low propensity black Democrats home and Hillary Clinton being a terrible candidate to appeal to African-American men. Yes, she won them by an insurmountable margin but many also stayed home and quite a few defected to Trump. I firmly believe Joe Biden would get LBJ '64 or Obama '12 margins with black voters.

I wish the black vote was more competitive. Even if it was only 66/33 in the Democrats' favor. It would make elections more exciting and make Democrats and the GOP work harder. Oh well.

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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2017, 03:54:30 AM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley

Nice post, thank you. Smiley

Any idea why blacks swung against Reagan in 1984? Seems weird considering the national margin of victory.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2017, 11:42:04 AM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley

Nice post, thank you. Smiley

Any idea why blacks swung against Reagan in 1984? Seems weird considering the national margin of victory.

Blacks might have been more comfortable with a Minnesota lawyer than a Southern Baptist preacher as the Democratic nominee. 
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2017, 12:47:19 PM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley


Couple of things stick out.

1. Harding's dominance of the black vote and then the drop between him and Coolidge.
2. The 15 point drop in Eisenhower; no idea why this happened especially given his Supreme Court pick presided over Brown vs Board of Education in 1954.
3. Gerald Ford's surprising 17% of the black vote.

The Regan drop is probably due to his policies neglecting inner cities. Reagan also suffered a drop in the rural Midwest.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2017, 01:05:13 PM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley


Couple of things stick out.

1. Harding's dominance of the black vote and then the drop between him and Coolidge.
2. The 15 point drop in Eisenhower; no idea why this happened especially given his Supreme Court pick presided over Brown vs Board of Education in 1954.
3. Gerald Ford's surprising 17% of the black vote.

The Regan drop is probably due to his policies neglecting inner cities. Reagan also suffered a drop in the rural Midwest.


You misread 1952-1956, Ike GAINED 15 points because of Brown v Board, that and Stevenson and Co. were generally very lukewarm toward civil rights and took the vote for granted. There's a reason it was precisely at that moment LBJ switched positions on Civil Rights.

What I don't get it is how Al Gore did better in the black vote than Hillary.

As for Ford, Carter was from the Old South and played MH to segregationists to even get into Governorship...that's gonna leave a mark.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2017, 05:54:06 PM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley


Couple of things stick out.

1. Harding's dominance of the black vote and then the drop between him and Coolidge.
2. The 15 point drop in Eisenhower; no idea why this happened especially given his Supreme Court pick presided over Brown vs Board of Education in 1954.
3. Gerald Ford's surprising 17% of the black vote.

The Regan drop is probably due to his policies neglecting inner cities. Reagan also suffered a drop in the rural Midwest.


You misread 1952-1956, Ike GAINED 15 points because of Brown v Board, that and Stevenson and Co. were generally very lukewarm toward civil rights and took the vote for granted. There's a reason it was precisely at that moment LBJ switched positions on Civil Rights.

What I don't get it is how Al Gore did better in the black vote than Hillary.

As for Ford, Carter was from the Old South and played MH to segregationists to even get into Governorship...that's gonna leave a mark.

Ugh. YUGE brain fart. You're right about Ike.

Yeah, totally forgot that Carter pandered to segregationists during his 1970 Georgia governors bid, while Ford voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act as a Congressman from Michigan.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #16 on: November 16, 2017, 12:25:51 AM »

I thought black voters were a swing group during the 1952, 56, and 60 elections and was surprised to see Democrats win this demographic so handily. In my mind I imagined President Eisenhower winning a slight majority both times, and then Kennedy flipping it back with a slim margin brought on by his attractiveness as a candidate and the MLK jail phone call.


They were an important demographic. The word swing demographic implies that the group itself swings, but it can also mean that a certain threshold will swing the election.

In 1948 for instance, the states of OH, ILL and CA were pivotal and Truman won all and African-Americans provided that margin of victory. Had Dewey achieved say 35% it might have swung those states and the election.

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« Reply #17 on: November 16, 2017, 12:28:53 AM »


You misread 1952-1956, Ike GAINED 15 points because of Brown v Board, that and Stevenson and Co. were generally very lukewarm toward civil rights and took the vote for granted. There's a reason it was precisely at that moment LBJ switched positions on Civil Rights.

It is also when a lot of the ethnic white Democratic machines in the north embraced Civil Rights as well, because they realized a coalition of middle class whites and African-Americans was a threat to their power and it had only been the loss of African-Americans that toppled Republican machines in Chicago and Philadelphia over the prior 20 years.

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« Reply #18 on: November 16, 2017, 12:32:25 AM »


The Regan drop is probably due to his policies neglecting inner cities. Reagan also suffered a drop in the rural Midwest.


I would add to that, the likely impact of older generations of African-Americans dying off, who were Republicans by tradition and legacy, and their replacement by Baby Boomers who were Democratic because of the Civil Rights Era.

That could explain the decline from the mid teens from 1968 to 1980, to the low teens/high single digits from 1984 and onwards.
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« Reply #19 on: December 14, 2017, 03:42:11 PM »

According to Henry Fairlie, Black wards in Cleveland gave the following percentages:

1928 - Smith - 30%
1932 - FDR - 24%
1936 - FDR - 49%

So I'd say 1932, Hoover.
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« Reply #20 on: December 14, 2017, 05:08:19 PM »

According to Henry Fairlie, Black wards in Cleveland gave the following percentages:

1928 - Smith - 30%
1932 - FDR - 24%
1936 - FDR - 49%

So I'd say 1932, Hoover.

I wonder what was so different about 1932/1936 as far as having numbers on nationwide Black voting trends.  Everything before seems to be restricted to various numbers related only to specific wards, which I assume varied significantly by location.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #21 on: December 14, 2017, 06:05:36 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2017, 06:12:28 PM by PR »

I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP

Under FDR, black civil rights got a big boost relative to what came before (especially with Eleanor's pressure), and Northern Democrats and many liberals in both parties started to seriously stand up for black civil rights in a serious manner - far more serious than any such stand taken by white politicians in the major parties since Reconstruction (note that the Southern Populists at their most radical in the 1880s and 1890s were very much invested in creating biracial coalitions, and with some success too).  

You have to understand, the first three decades of the 20th century were basically the nadir of black civil rights post-Emancipation, with both the Democrats and the Republicans becoming more indifferent to black people's rights (if not outright hostile - which they were in many cases). This was the Golden Age of Lynchings, so to speak (ugh). Woodrow Wilson - amazingly and darkly, obviously - actually got some significant support from black voters in 1912! (only to completely betray them once in office, of course). And post-WWI, while Warren Harding , to his credit, spoke out against lynching, I don't think the 1924 presidential election had any candidates who were serious about strongly supporting civil rights for black people (certainly not the 1924 Democratic nominee, who was enthusiastically endorsed by the Klan!).

Meanwhile, the "Lily White" faction of the Republican Party in the South had by the 1920s been becoming more powerful than the "Black-and-Tans" (the biracial/pro-civil rights part of the Southern GOP), which naturally pushed the Southern GOP in a more conservative direction. While Southern Republicans obviously were useless for winning elections in this period (duh), they could and did indeed have influence on the Republican platform at the National Convention. And since Southern Republicans in this period were, again, trying to expand by courting Dixiecrats (which was basically necessary if they wanted to not just break up the Dixiecrats' hegemony among white voters, but get any significant number of votes, period - remember, blacks basically couldn't vote in the South at this point, certainly not in practice...)...well, you can imagine what followed from there. Furthermore, Herbert Hoover did surprisingly well in the South in 1928, where the Klan campaigned for him against the Papist Democrat from New York, so the potential for the Solid South being cracked open by at the very least, a protest vote against national Democrats was indeed established in 1928.

All of this is important in understanding why the Republican hold on black voters was already increasingly fragile by the time FDR was elected. And New Deal policies, as well as FDR's steps (modest as they were, especially in retrospect) toward helping black people (in spite of the notorious restrictions and even exclusions of agricultural and domestic workers from many of the New Deal's provisions - thanks, Dixiecrat-controlled Congressional Committees!), in combination with the Republican Party - which at this point was still entirely non-Southern, certainly in terms of elected officials) throwing their lot in with segregationist Dixiecrats (especially the extremely conservative - reactionary, in fact - Southern Democrats who chaired most Congressional Committees) in Congress as part of what became known as the "Conservative Coalition" in opposition to (much of) the New Deal and to "Northern liberalism" in general (which was certainly present among Northerners in BOTH parties, but increasingly more so in the Democrats as the 1930s and 1940s went on - not a good omen for the Democratic Party's national unity!) only accelerated that process.

Yes, black voters going from very reliable Republicans to very reliable Democrats is a very complex and long-term historical phenomenon indeed, but the changing roles in which race and civil rights (both support of and opposition to) played in the US two-party system (and the one-party system in the South), in conjunction with the related (and similarly complex) origin story of what we now widely define and recognize as political "liberalism" and political "conservatism" and that story's intersections with both the New Deal and its legacy as well as the aforementioned trends re: race relations and black civil rights - all of these are essential to understanding this topic.

/effortpost
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« Reply #22 on: July 26, 2018, 04:11:07 AM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley

Bumping an old thread with a quibble, but it looks like Robert Caro came up with some different numbers for this (though I haven't found where he sourced them from):

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RINO Tom
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« Reply #23 on: July 26, 2018, 09:31:52 AM »

I started a thread on this a while back. Smiley

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221358.0

Regarding a few comments above, Eisenhower never won the Black vote (even with having a pretty good civil rights record and a segregationist on the other ticket ... I think that should remind people that Black voters abandoned the GOP LONG before any perceived REAL courting of the South by the GOP), and Hoover almost certainly beat FDR among Black voters in 1932, while losing the group in 1936.  Here is everything I could find:

2016 - 89% DEM, 8% GOP
2012 - 93% DEM, 6% GOP
2008 - 95% DEM, 4% GOP
2004 - 88% DEM, 11% GOP
2000 - 90% DEM, 9% GOP
1996 - 84% DEM, 12% GOP
1992 - 83% DEM, 10% GOP
1988 - 89% DEM, 11% GOP
1984 - 91% DEM, 9% GOP
1980 - 83% DEM, 14% GOP
1976 - 83% DEM, 17% GOP
1972 - 87% DEM, 13% GOP
1968 - 85% DEM, 15% GOP
1964 - 94% DEM, 6% GOP
1960 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1956 - 61% DEM, 39% GOP
1952 - 76% DEM, 24% GOP
1948 - 77% DEM, 23% GOP
1944 - 68% DEM, 32% GOP
1940 - 67% DEM, 32% GOP
1936 - 71% DEM, 28% GOP
1932 - 77% GOP, 23% DEM

The following (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) are the results of just one subset, the Black wards of Harlem:

1928 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1924 - 78% GOP, 28% DEM
1920 - 97% GOP, 3% DEM

It is also estimated (http://www.blacksandpresidency.com/herberthoover.php) that Wilson won about 5-7% of the Black vote in 1912.

For much more, we'd need to purchase some well-written books. Smiley

Bumping an old thread with a quibble, but it looks like Robert Caro came up with some different numbers for this (though I haven't found where he sourced them from):

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^ Interesting.  I have read quite a bit that 1948 was the first election that Democrats really realized that they "needed" the Black vote to win (whereas before 1948, they were content with using Black votes to prop up their urban machines but certainly saw other coalition groups - specifically White Southerners - as much more important to their success).  I'd love to see the numbers these historians have access to.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2018, 01:48:33 PM »

According to Henry Fairlie, Black wards in Cleveland gave the following percentages:

1928 - Smith - 30%
1932 - FDR - 24%
1936 - FDR - 49%

So I'd say 1932, Hoover.

It's ironic that Hoover won the black vote considering he was a virulent racist himself. He opposed anti-lynching bills and was also a fervent supporter of the Lily White Policy. He intentionally did his best to drive blacks from the Republican Party by segregated them and refusing to be photographed with any black leaders. The GOP was never really the party of Civil Rights...even Taft was a racist who sought to remove blacks from the party.
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