GCS Poll of 2020 Presidential Election with Sanders running as an Independent
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Author Topic: GCS Poll of 2020 Presidential Election with Sanders running as an Independent  (Read 2382 times)
mattocaster6
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« on: October 21, 2017, 09:35:33 PM »
« edited: October 21, 2017, 10:46:06 PM by mattocaster6 »

Poll link: https://surveys.google.com/reporting/question?survey=zjmqnucs52joyvvsfvkugfivgq&question=1&raw=false&transpose=false&tab=chart&synonyms=true&hl=en-US

Results excluding not sure and undecided:

Donald Trump (R): 42% (+10)

Bernie Sanders (I): 32%

Kamala Harris (D): 26%

Sample size: 405

Weighted automatically by Google to be representative of the US adult population
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2017, 09:55:47 PM »

It's his turn.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2017, 10:11:06 PM »

With these numbers, I'd guess that Sanders wins Vermont, Hawaii, Oregon, and maybe a couple other states while Harris wins California and Maryland with Trump sweeping everything else.
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mattocaster6
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2017, 10:46:38 PM »

Whoops I accidentally put 15% instead of 26% for Kamala Harris, fixed now.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2017, 10:52:00 PM »

Donald Trump (R): 42% (+10)

Bernie Sanders (I): 32%

Kamala Harris (D): 26%


What would the electoral map look like with those numbers?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2017, 11:25:21 PM »

One thing’s for certain: America rejects Trump’s agenda overwhelmingly. Sanders has said he would never run as an independent. He will always back the Democratic candidate so this scenario isn’t plausible.
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Shadows
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2017, 01:23:04 AM »

Holy sh**t. This is totally unexpected & I though Sanders would get 15-17% in initial polls & then drop with time. Also there are no 3rd party options like Greens (who will anyways get close to 0 with Sanders running) & Libertarians (who I think will take 1-2%, mostly of Trump).

I don't know if this poll can be considered accurate & I certainly don't see a 3rd party getting 30%+. Financial resources, getting on the ballot & then campaigning against both parties in all 50 states without any allies, media support & then winning is very hard. Especially if you are considered a spoiler, non-serious candidate who will have 0 representation in the Congress - The narrative is woven that way. In Sanders' cases, why is he even running as an Independent if he has to be dependent on Democrats 100% in Congress for every legislation?

This once again shows that the Democratic party needs serious reforms if they are losing to both Trump & a 79 year old Socialist Jewish non-religious Independent.


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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2017, 01:27:45 AM »

Yes any independent candidate helps Trump.


The more high profile, the bigger the EV spread will be.
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Shadows
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2017, 01:54:39 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2017, 05:19:21 AM by Shadows »

With these numbers, I'd guess that Sanders wins Vermont, Hawaii, Oregon, and maybe a couple other states while Harris wins California and Maryland with Trump sweeping everything else.

I went & studied all the break-up in the Excel file. The problem is some states like PA has like 4 people voting so you can't get a state wise proper data from this. But Sanders was sweeping the West Coast & Hispanic areas while Harris-Sanders were neck to neck in the NE. Trump's base areas were the South, Middle America & in general older voters.

Swing States Sanders was winning - Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Arizona
Trump - Florida, PA, NC, Iowa
Harris - Wisconsin

(West Coast & SW States) -
Sanders wins all of Washington, Oregon, NM, Hawaii
California - 3 way tie between Sanders, Trump & Harris

Swing States Ties - Ohio, Nevada & MN all have Sanders/Trump ties (All Cases Harris takes some votes)

Fun Part - New York - (Obviously a safe blue state), Total Votes - 18
Trump - 6, Sanders - 6, Undecided - 6

Age Wise Break-up -
18-34 - Sanders - 38%, Trump - 33%, Harris - 29%
65+ - Trump - 56%, Sanders -  22%, Harris - 22%

Gender Wise Break-up -
Male - Trump - 50%, Sanders - 30%, Harris - 20%
Female - Trump 34%, Sanders 33%, Harris 33%

(Pretty clear Trump's best voters are male & older voters with Sanders' best voters are millennials. Trump obviously has a huge gender problem & while his topline numbers are decent, his performance in many key swing states is really poor.

Around 30% in general in this poll are Undecided. Polls this early are meaningless anyways. And the sample size is too small & unweighted to have a state wise idea but Sanders best areas seem the west coast.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2017, 02:33:06 AM »

They should have put Clinton or Biden or Warren in the poll instead of Harris. Kamala Harris is only known by people like us at this point.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2017, 03:21:56 AM »

Sanders won't run as an independent. Pointless poll.
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2017, 04:18:38 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2017, 06:43:10 PM by Ἅιδης »

Donald Trump (R): 42% (+10)

Bernie Sanders (I): 32%

Kamala Harris (D): 26%


What would the electoral map look like with those numbers?


I tried to make it look as realistic and interesting as possible:



Trump: 433
Sanders: 18
Harris: 87
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2017, 04:41:57 AM »

Such a poll is ridiculous. Bernard is not running as an independent. He knows that this would hand Trump a second term. And I don't think he wants that.
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2017, 04:55:36 AM »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2017, 05:48:40 AM »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.

Define rigged. If the superdelegates overturn his delegate/popular vote lead, then yeah I'd agree with you it would be justified. If you mean irrelevant DNC operatives privately sending snarky emails about him, then yeah...no.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2017, 06:34:15 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2017, 06:37:28 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.

Define rigged. If the superdelegates overturn his delegate/popular vote lead, then yeah I'd agree with you it would be justified. If you mean irrelevant DNC operatives privately sending snarky emails about him, then yeah...no.

The DKIM verified Wikileaks e-mails showed that the DNC was very biased in favor of Hillary. Including things such as having Donna Brazile feed Hillary debate questions ahead of time. You can find plenty of information online about the Wikileaks emails such as this.
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/

And that phony Datagate scandal was ridiculous. Bernie shouldn't let the DNC have any control over his voter database because they are not trustworthy. The first debate wasn't until after the deadline to change parties in NY. If you were a registered independent in NY who learned about Bernie at the 1st debate, you were sh**t out of luck.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2017, 06:49:28 AM »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.

Define rigged. If the superdelegates overturn his delegate/popular vote lead, then yeah I'd agree with you it would be justified. If you mean irrelevant DNC operatives privately sending snarky emails about him, then yeah...no.

The DKIM verified Wikileaks e-mails showed that the DNC was very biased in favor of Hillary. Including things such as having Donna Brazile feed Hillary debate questions ahead of time. You can find plenty of information online about the Wikileaks emails such as this.
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/

You mean telling the Clinton campaign they would be getting a question about the drinking water in Flint while debating in Flint at the height of the Flint scandal? Yeah, that was really putting the finger on the scale for Clinton. /s
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2017, 07:26:58 AM »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.

Define rigged. If the superdelegates overturn his delegate/popular vote lead, then yeah I'd agree with you it would be justified. If you mean irrelevant DNC operatives privately sending snarky emails about him, then yeah...no.

The DKIM verified Wikileaks e-mails showed that the DNC was very biased in favor of Hillary. Including things such as having Donna Brazile feed Hillary debate questions ahead of time. You can find plenty of information online about the Wikileaks emails such as this.
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/

And that phony Datagate scandal was ridiculous. Bernie shouldn't let the DNC have any control over his voter database because they are not trustworthy. The first debate wasn't until after the deadline to change parties in NY. If you were a registered independent in NY who learned about Bernie at the 1st debate, you were sh**t out of luck.
Seek help.
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jfern
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2017, 07:44:29 AM »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.

Define rigged. If the superdelegates overturn his delegate/popular vote lead, then yeah I'd agree with you it would be justified. If you mean irrelevant DNC operatives privately sending snarky emails about him, then yeah...no.

The DKIM verified Wikileaks e-mails showed that the DNC was very biased in favor of Hillary. Including things such as having Donna Brazile feed Hillary debate questions ahead of time. You can find plenty of information online about the Wikileaks emails such as this.
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/

You mean telling the Clinton campaign they would be getting a question about the drinking water in Flint while debating in Flint at the height of the Flint scandal? Yeah, that was really putting the finger on the scale for Clinton. /s

As if it was just one question.

Oh and I didn't even mention the money laundering to circumvent campaign finance limits for Hillary during the primary.

Really, anyone defending this sh**t deserves to have their side lose.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2017, 07:59:39 AM »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.

Define rigged. If the superdelegates overturn his delegate/popular vote lead, then yeah I'd agree with you it would be justified. If you mean irrelevant DNC operatives privately sending snarky emails about him, then yeah...no.

The DKIM verified Wikileaks e-mails showed that the DNC was very biased in favor of Hillary. Including things such as having Donna Brazile feed Hillary debate questions ahead of time. You can find plenty of information online about the Wikileaks emails such as this.
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/

You mean telling the Clinton campaign they would be getting a question about the drinking water in Flint while debating in Flint at the height of the Flint scandal? Yeah, that was really putting the finger on the scale for Clinton. /s

As if it was just one question.

Oh and I didn't even mention the money laundering to circumvent campaign finance limits for Hillary during the primary.

Really, anyone defending this sh**t deserves to have their side lose.

Sanders was given the same opportunity f.y.i.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2017, 08:42:00 AM »

GCS samples usually have a huge shortage of female respondents, so unless it's weighted, it's probably not very accurate. If it's unweighted, you're basically just seeing a poll of white men.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2017, 09:35:37 AM »

GCS samples usually have a huge shortage of female respondents, so unless it's weighted, it's probably not very accurate. If it's unweighted, you're basically just seeing a poll of white men.

The OP says it's weighted to match the demographics of US adults.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2017, 10:10:03 AM »

GCS samples usually have a huge shortage of female respondents, so unless it's weighted, it's probably not very accurate. If it's unweighted, you're basically just seeing a poll of white men.

The OP says it's weighted to match the demographics of US adults.


Even still, if you have like 50 female respondents (which wouldn't be that weird for GCS), that's not exactly representative of the entire female population. Same for minority populations.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2017, 10:52:09 AM »

GCS samples usually have a huge shortage of female respondents, so unless it's weighted, it's probably not very accurate. If it's unweighted, you're basically just seeing a poll of white men.

The OP says it's weighted to match the demographics of US adults.


Even still, if you have like 50 female respondents (which wouldn't be that weird for GCS), that's not exactly representative of the entire female population. Same for minority populations.

Dude the samples are right in the post. Just click the link. The sample is 57% male 43% female so yeah, it polls a lot more males than females.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2017, 03:57:46 PM »

If the Democratic party rigs the primary for a garbage candidate, then I really hope Bernie runs as an independent. He'd be the stronger candidate, and so if Trump got re-elected, it would have been the Democratic party and not him who was the spoiler.

Define rigged. If the superdelegates overturn his delegate/popular vote lead, then yeah I'd agree with you it would be justified. If you mean irrelevant DNC operatives privately sending snarky emails about him, then yeah...no.

The DKIM verified Wikileaks e-mails showed that the DNC was very biased in favor of Hillary. Including things such as having Donna Brazile feed Hillary debate questions ahead of time. You can find plenty of information online about the Wikileaks emails such as this.
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/

And that phony Datagate scandal was ridiculous. Bernie shouldn't let the DNC have any control over his voter database because they are not trustworthy. The first debate wasn't until after the deadline to change parties in NY. If you were a registered independent in NY who learned about Bernie at the 1st debate, you were sh**t out of luck.

Party members are always going to have preferences even if they're officially neutral. As for NY, that rule might be ridiculous, but I'm not sure how you can claim it is "riggage" when it was in place long before Bernie (or Hillary for that matter) ever ran for president. That would be like claiming the electoral college was rigged for Trump/rigged against Hillary despite being in place since the drafting of the constitution.
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