GCS Poll of 2020 Presidential Election with Sanders running as an Independent (user search)
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  GCS Poll of 2020 Presidential Election with Sanders running as an Independent (search mode)
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Author Topic: GCS Poll of 2020 Presidential Election with Sanders running as an Independent  (Read 2457 times)
Shadows
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Posts: 4,956
« on: October 22, 2017, 01:23:04 AM »

Holy sh**t. This is totally unexpected & I though Sanders would get 15-17% in initial polls & then drop with time. Also there are no 3rd party options like Greens (who will anyways get close to 0 with Sanders running) & Libertarians (who I think will take 1-2%, mostly of Trump).

I don't know if this poll can be considered accurate & I certainly don't see a 3rd party getting 30%+. Financial resources, getting on the ballot & then campaigning against both parties in all 50 states without any allies, media support & then winning is very hard. Especially if you are considered a spoiler, non-serious candidate who will have 0 representation in the Congress - The narrative is woven that way. In Sanders' cases, why is he even running as an Independent if he has to be dependent on Democrats 100% in Congress for every legislation?

This once again shows that the Democratic party needs serious reforms if they are losing to both Trump & a 79 year old Socialist Jewish non-religious Independent.


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Shadows
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Posts: 4,956
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2017, 01:54:39 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2017, 05:19:21 AM by Shadows »

With these numbers, I'd guess that Sanders wins Vermont, Hawaii, Oregon, and maybe a couple other states while Harris wins California and Maryland with Trump sweeping everything else.

I went & studied all the break-up in the Excel file. The problem is some states like PA has like 4 people voting so you can't get a state wise proper data from this. But Sanders was sweeping the West Coast & Hispanic areas while Harris-Sanders were neck to neck in the NE. Trump's base areas were the South, Middle America & in general older voters.

Swing States Sanders was winning - Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Arizona
Trump - Florida, PA, NC, Iowa
Harris - Wisconsin

(West Coast & SW States) -
Sanders wins all of Washington, Oregon, NM, Hawaii
California - 3 way tie between Sanders, Trump & Harris

Swing States Ties - Ohio, Nevada & MN all have Sanders/Trump ties (All Cases Harris takes some votes)

Fun Part - New York - (Obviously a safe blue state), Total Votes - 18
Trump - 6, Sanders - 6, Undecided - 6

Age Wise Break-up -
18-34 - Sanders - 38%, Trump - 33%, Harris - 29%
65+ - Trump - 56%, Sanders -  22%, Harris - 22%

Gender Wise Break-up -
Male - Trump - 50%, Sanders - 30%, Harris - 20%
Female - Trump 34%, Sanders 33%, Harris 33%

(Pretty clear Trump's best voters are male & older voters with Sanders' best voters are millennials. Trump obviously has a huge gender problem & while his topline numbers are decent, his performance in many key swing states is really poor.

Around 30% in general in this poll are Undecided. Polls this early are meaningless anyways. And the sample size is too small & unweighted to have a state wise idea but Sanders best areas seem the west coast.
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