More likely: Newsom doesn't make CA-GOV runoff or Jones beats Moore in AL-SEN?

[I’m not Stu]

Roy Moore leads in every poll, except the tied Fox News poll. The CA gubernatorial race has at least 3 contenders (Newsom, Villaraigosa, and Chiang). Which is more likely: Moore losing to Jones, or Newsom failing to make runoff?

[IceSpear]

First is impossible, so second by default. It'd be very surprising, but primaries are inherently more unpredictable and unstable. Also, Newsom could get caught in scandal or something and collapse. Moore would win even if caught with both a live boy and a dead girl. Even if Moore died tomorrow his corpse would win the election by a hefty margin. Newsom's corpse probably wouldn't, lol.

[President Johnson]

The latter. Antonio (D) vs. Cox (R) would be the likely match-up in California then. But both almost impossible.

[I’m not Stu]

Who would win an Antonio Villaraigosa vs. John Chiang race?

[Holmes]

Who would win an Antonio Villaraigosa vs. John Chiang race?

Chiang

[I’m not Stu]

First is impossible, so second by default. It'd be very surprising, but primaries are inherently more unpredictable and unstable. Also, Newsom could get caught in scandal or something and collapse. Moore would win even if caught with both a live boy and a dead girl. Even if Moore died tomorrow his corpse would win the election by a hefty margin. Newsom's corpse probably wouldn't, lol.

Do CA Democratic gubernatorial candidates Akinyemi Agbede and Ted Crisell have a better chance of winning against Newsom than Doug Jones has of winning against Moore?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Zoltan Istvan making it into the run-off is more likely than Jones beating Moore.

[I’m not Stu]

Zoltan Istvan making it into the run-off is more likely than Jones beating Moore.

That must mean a Chiang-Crisell or Villaraigosa-Agbede runoff is more likely than Jones winning.

[IceSpear]

Zoltan Istvan making it into the run-off is more likely than Jones beating Moore.

That must mean a Chiang-Crisell or Villaraigosa-Agbede runoff is more likely than Jones winning.

Me winning the Powerball then getting struck by lightning immediately after is more likely than Jones winning.

[I’m not Stu]

What plausible scenarios might cause Newsom to finish third or worse in the gubernatorial primary?

[KingSweden]

What plausible scenarios might cause Newsom to finish third or worse in the gubernatorial primary?

Him screwing his campaign manager’s wife again, for starters.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Moore's corpse would likely overperform Moore by 10%, TBH.

[The Arizonan]

Moore's corpse would likely overperform Moore by 10%, TBH.

Hahahahahahaha.

[NewYorkExpress]

The former. A Chiang/Villaraigosa matchup is possible (especially Villaraigosa), while there's no circumstance where Jones defeats Moore.

[Kingpoleon]

What plausible scenarios might cause Newsom to finish third or worse in the gubernatorial primary?

Him screwing his campaign manager’s wife again, for starters.

It’s amazing he managed to overcome a scandal like that. That would destroy most politicians.

[BuckeyeNut]

What plausible scenarios might cause Newsom to finish third or worse in the gubernatorial primary?

Him screwing his campaign manager’s wife again, for starters.

It’s amazing he managed to overcome a scandal like that. That would destroy most politicians.

Donald. Trump. Is. President.

[IceSpear]

What plausible scenarios might cause Newsom to finish third or worse in the gubernatorial primary?

Him screwing his campaign manager’s wife again, for starters.

It’s amazing he managed to overcome a scandal like that. That would destroy most politicians.

Times have changed.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

[IceSpear]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

Yes, easily. His followers would dismiss it as fake news.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

Yes, easily. His followers would dismiss it as fake news.

Would his followers dismiss it even if Fox News says the collusion with North Korea is true?

[IceSpear]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

Yes, easily. His followers would dismiss it as fake news.

Would his followers dismiss it even if Fox News says the collusion with North Korea is true?

Yes. Remember Megyn Kelly at the first GOP debate?

[I’m not Stu]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

Yes, easily. His followers would dismiss it as fake news.

Would his followers dismiss it even if Fox News says the collusion with North Korea is true?

Yes. Remember Megyn Kelly at the first GOP debate?

If they wouldn't even believe right wing Fox News, where are they getting their news?

[IceSpear]

Would Roy Moore win even if he's caught colluding with North Korea?

Yes, easily. His followers would dismiss it as fake news.

Would his followers dismiss it even if Fox News says the collusion with North Korea is true?

Yes. Remember Megyn Kelly at the first GOP debate?

If they wouldn't even believe right wing Fox News, where are they getting their news?

Rush Limbaugh, Breitbart, Infowars, Drudge, WorldNetDaily, Stormfront, Facebook fake news, etc.

[The Other Castro]

There is virtually no chance that Newsom fails to make the runoff. There is a very low, but nonzero chance that Jones wins.

[IceSpear]

There is virtually no chance that Newsom fails to make the runoff. There is a very low, but nonzero chance that Jones wins.

Would Newsom still make the runoff if he shot someone on 5th Avenue and/or died? Because Moore would.