HI-01: Who Replaces Hanabusa?

[Dr. MB]

More importantly, someone needs to primary Gabbard.

I doubt that could be pulled off successfully.

Why not?  If anything, she seems like she’d be an unusually easy incumbent to defeat in the Democratic primary.

She won the 2012 (first) primary by 20 points, 2014 by 60 points (although 20% left blank), and 2016 by 64 with a challenger. I don't think she's going anywhere anytime soon.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

More importantly, someone needs to primary Gabbard.

I doubt that could be pulled off successfully.

Why not?  If anything, she seems like she’d be an unusually easy incumbent to defeat in the Democratic primary.

She won the 2012 (first) primary by 20 points, 2014 by 60 points (although 20% left blank), and 2016 by 64 with a challenger. I don't think she's going anywhere anytime soon.

2012 was a completely different situation and she didn’t face a serious opponent in 2014 or 2016.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

More importantly, someone needs to primary Gabbard.

Who do you have in mind?

[Nutmeg]

Hawai'i has a pretty long history of having representatives who don't live in their district; for a good chunk of the last decade or so, the two reps have in fact lived in each others' districts. Most of the prominent Second District candidates in the past 20 or so years have lived in Honolulu; heck, the district office for the Second District is located in the Prince Kuhio Federal Building, which is in the First District. The incumbent in the First District, Colleen Hanabusa, previously ran for the Second District seat in 2003 and 2006 and lives in Waiʻanae, which is in the Second, not the First.

So that is to say, a candidate's place of residence in Hawai'i really is not issue as it might be in some other states.

Yeah, which is basically to say that all the politicians live on Oahu. Kaniela lives and represents another island, but the seat he’s trying to run in is located entirely within the Honolulu area. Hanabusa may live in the second district, but she still lives in Oahu.

Either way, Hawaii’s Democratic primary electorate is totally different from its caucus electorate, so a figure like Kaniela would probably struggle against a more mainstream, established politician. Almost 240,000 people voted in the Democratic Senate primary in 2014, only about 30,000 people participated in the 2016 Democratic presidential caucuses. I don’t think expecting Berniecrats to do well in Hawaii based off just 2016 is a good idea, given how very few people participate in the caucuses compared to primaries. If Hawaii held primaries, Clinton probably would’ve won, just like in Washington and another Great Plains state that I can’t remember.

Good points, for sure. Ing's best shot will be if multiple Honolulu institution-friendly candidates like Mercado Kim run, and Fukumoto siphons off more conservative votes, leaving Ing with a clear shot at the left/unaffiliated/reform elements of the primary electorate. 30% could well be enough to win.

Btw, I wonder if the high fluidity between Hawai'i's districts is related to that for the first decade the state had representatives, they were elected at-large, with the districts only coming into existence in the 1970s.

And further btw, just as Fukumoto was a Republican until last year, the only Republican candidate so far is an ex-Democrat. Shows how much party means in the great state of Hawai'i (where even the conservatives, like Tulsi's insane father, are Democrats).

[JMT]

More importantly, someone needs to primary Gabbard.

I hope so!

[IceSpear]

Anyone but DINO Mercado Kim, please.

[Kamala]

[ominous chanting] Ing, Ing, Ing, Ing!

[Nutmeg]

[ominous chanting] Ing, Ing, Ing, Ing!

I'm all for Ing. His speech in favor of marriage equality in the legislature endeared him to me for the ages.

With state AG Doug Chin's announcement today, does anyone have a thought as to how this is shaping up? Some mainland sources are calling Chin the frontrunner, but I'm not convinced he's really that much of a household name.

[Cactus Jack]

I fervently pray to Fake Jesus for an Ing victory. We direly need new, young officeholders.