HI-01: Who Replaces Hanabusa?

[Jeppe]

Donna Mercado Kim and Beth Fukumoto are strong possibilities. Probably Mercado Kim though, she's a high profile state legislator who placed 2nd in the Democratic primary to Mark Takai in 2014.

[Jeppe]

Maybe Ed Case?

He suffered 3 embarassing losses in a row, to Akaka, Hanabusa, and Hirono. It's pretty hard to salvage a political career after something like that.

[Jeppe]

Ing's carpetbagging would be a non-issue if he lived on Oahu and was just barely outside of HI-01's borders (Like Tulsi Gabbard) but he lives on Maui and I would be very surprised if he wins a primary.

Anyway I hope It's not Donna Kim and I'd prefer it to not be Fukumoto.

That's what I've been saying. It's like somebody representing a state house district in Buffalo and running for a congressional seat in Manhattan, it doesn't make sense.

[Jeppe]

Hawai'i has a pretty long history of having representatives who don't live in their district; for a good chunk of the last decade or so, the two reps have in fact lived in each others' districts. Most of the prominent Second District candidates in the past 20 or so years have lived in Honolulu; heck, the district office for the Second District is located in the Prince Kuhio Federal Building, which is in the First District. The incumbent in the First District, Colleen Hanabusa, previously ran for the Second District seat in 2003 and 2006 and lives in Waiʻanae, which is in the Second, not the First.

So that is to say, a candidate's place of residence in Hawai'i really is not issue as it might be in some other states.

Yeah, which is basically to say that all the politicians live on Oahu. Kaniela lives and represents another island, but the seat he’s trying to run in is located entirely within the Honolulu area. Hanabusa may live in the second district, but she still lives in Oahu.

Either way, Hawaii’s Democratic primary electorate is totally different from its caucus electorate, so a figure like Kaniela would probably struggle against a more mainstream, established politician. Almost 240,000 people voted in the Democratic Senate primary in 2014, only about 30,000 people participated in the 2016 Democratic presidential caucuses. I don’t think expecting Berniecrats to do well in Hawaii based off just 2016 is a good idea, given how very few people participate in the caucuses compared to primaries. If Hawaii held primaries, Clinton probably would’ve won, just like in Washington and another Great Plains state that I can’t remember.

[Jeppe]

http://www.staradvertiser.com/2017/11/08/breaking-news/veteran-state-senator-annonuces-bid-for-hanabusas-congressional-seat/

Former Hawaii Senate President Donna Mercado Kim is running for the seat, as expected. The presumed front runner for now, but the field is still open.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/hawaii-state-rep-beth-fukumoto-could-take-her-fight-against-n817051

Beth Fukumoto is also considering running. I would prefer it if she won the primary, she could be Hirono’s replacement in the Senate once she retires, and hold down the seat for decades as is Hawaiian tradition.

[Jeppe]

One of the first things you see of Kaniela Ing when you Google him is his mugshot of when he got arrested a year or two ago for a court infraction. Not a good look..