Chance that at least one woman will be on the Democratic ticket?

[TDAS04]

What do you think is the percent chance that one or two women will be on the Democratic ticket in 2020?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would guess 60-70%.

[Rookie Yinzer]

70-80%

Harris, Gillibrand, Warren as potential Pres nominees.

Harris, Cortez-Masto, Baldwin, Klobuchar as potential VPs

[Mr. Morden]

Out of the plausible male presidential nominees, which one is the *least* likely to pick a woman as his running mate?

My gut says Sanders.  Because of Sanders's age, he might put more of a premium on picking a running mate who is simpatico with him on governing vision, since the prospects of someone that old having to step down part way through his term is very real.  And there are only so many feasible choices in that regard.

For every one of the other plausible male Dem. presidential nominees, I think the probability of them picking a woman as veep is very high.  Even for Sanders it's high, just not quite as high.

[NewYorkExpress]

Close to 100%

The odds are at least one of Warren, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Cortez-Masto, Duckworth Harris will be on the ticket in some form.

Also, if Pence ends up heading the GOP ticket, don't rule out Nikki Haley as his VP nominee.

[Liberalrocks]

I would guess 60-70%.

[RaphaelDLG]

Out of the plausible male presidential nominees, which one is the *least* likely to pick a woman as his running mate?

My gut says Sanders.  Because of Sanders's age, he might put more of a premium on picking a running mate who is simpatico with him on governing vision, since the prospects of someone that old having to step down part way through his term is very real.  And there are only so many feasible choices in that regard.

For every one of the other plausible male Dem. presidential nominees, I think the probability of them picking a woman as veep is very high.  Even for Sanders it's high, just not quite as high.

What male and plausible nominee is more ideologically compatible with him than the female Warren?  Merkley, maybe?

[Mr. Morden]

Out of the plausible male presidential nominees, which one is the *least* likely to pick a woman as his running mate?

My gut says Sanders.  Because of Sanders's age, he might put more of a premium on picking a running mate who is simpatico with him on governing vision, since the prospects of someone that old having to step down part way through his term is very real.  And there are only so many feasible choices in that regard.

For every one of the other plausible male Dem. presidential nominees, I think the probability of them picking a woman as veep is very high.  Even for Sanders it's high, just not quite as high.

What male and plausible nominee is more ideologically compatible with him than the female Warren?  Merkley, maybe?

I don't know that he'd want to pick someone else who's over 70 years old, so I'm not sure Warren would be a given.  He might pick Merkley or Brown instead.  Whereas if Biden is the presidential nominee, then I think there's a >90% chance he'd pick a female running mate.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Most of the potential female VP picks really don't add much to the ticket.

Klobuchar, Gillibrand, maybe Murray or or Cantwell add presence to the ticket, but they don't really expand the map any.

Shaheen and Hassan would secure New Hampshire, but New Hampshire has gone Democratic, and has only 4 EV.

McCaskill and Heitkamp would, but they're not locks to make it through 2018.

Cortez Masto, Harris, are first-term Senators, and their experience will be questioned.

Warren is a negative as VP; it's a case of a waitress being a better cook than the chef.  I also don't think she'd accept the second spot.

Duckworth, IMO, would come off as gimmicky, and doesn't expand the map.  In many ways, though, she''d be the best pick.

The RADICAL thing for a male Democrat to do here is select Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) as VP.  This would be a bold pick that would actually help.  I don't know that she'll do it, and I don't know that the Democrats would buy that.  But if I were a standard liberal Democrat just nominated to face Donald Trump, I'd be thinking along those lines.

[TPIG]

Between Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Gabbard, Klobuchar and others, it is extremely likely that the Democratic ticket will have a woman on it. 80 - 90%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A woman being on the ticket is a major requirement in the quest to oust Trump from office. Either Kamala Harris or Catherine Cortez Masto should be in major consideration for the job.

[NewYorkExpress]

Most of the potential female VP picks really don't add much to the ticket.

Klobuchar, Gillibrand, maybe Murray or or Cantwell add presence to the ticket, but they don't really expand the map any.

Shaheen and Hassan would secure New Hampshire, but New Hampshire has gone Democratic, and has only 4 EV.

McCaskill and Heitkamp would, but they're not locks to make it through 2018.

Cortez Masto, Harris, are first-term Senators, and their experience will be questioned.

Warren is a negative as VP; it's a case of a waitress being a better cook than the chef.  I also don't think she'd accept the second spot.

Duckworth, IMO, would come off as gimmicky, and doesn't expand the map.  In many ways, though, she''d be the best pick.

The RADICAL thing for a male Democrat to do here is select Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) as VP.  This would be a bold pick that would actually help.  I don't know that she'll do it, and I don't know that the Democrats would buy that.  But if I were a standard liberal Democrat just nominated to face Donald Trump, I'd be thinking along those lines.

You listed all the possible female VP candidates and forgot Tulsi Gabbard?

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Most of the potential female VP picks really don't add much to the ticket.

Klobuchar, Gillibrand, maybe Murray or or Cantwell add presence to the ticket, but they don't really expand the map any.

Shaheen and Hassan would secure New Hampshire, but New Hampshire has gone Democratic, and has only 4 EV.

McCaskill and Heitkamp would, but they're not locks to make it through 2018.

Cortez Masto, Harris, are first-term Senators, and their experience will be questioned.

Warren is a negative as VP; it's a case of a waitress being a better cook than the chef.  I also don't think she'd accept the second spot.

Duckworth, IMO, would come off as gimmicky, and doesn't expand the map.  In many ways, though, she''d be the best pick.

The RADICAL thing for a male Democrat to do here is select Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) as VP.  This would be a bold pick that would actually help.  I don't know that she'll do it, and I don't know that the Democrats would buy that.  But if I were a standard liberal Democrat just nominated to face Donald Trump, I'd be thinking along those lines.

You listed all the possible female VP candidates and forgot Tulsi Gabbard?

I don't see Tulsi Gabbard as a viable pick for VP.  For her, it's the top spot or nothing.

I'll say this; she's really good-looking.  That may sound sexist, but being handsome/pretty and physically attractive has always had real-world advantages for both women and men. And, in Tulsi Gabbard's case, it will be obvious to all; she's both attractive AND young.  A female on a national ticket that was young enough to be considered "hot" has never happened, and I wonder how a scenario like this would play out.  Would America take her seriously?

That's one reason I see her as the top spot or nothing.  Her good looks would detract from the Presidential candidate; and this would be true if the top spot went to a man or a woman.  Rightly or wrongly, there would be gossip, and in 2020, a gossip-ridden campaign would bring the Democrats' campaign down to the level of Trump (who peppers his campaign with the celebrity gossip folks can't get enough of).  I suspect that the key to beating Trump in 2020 is that a significant number of voters will have to come to view Trump as incompetent and view restoring competence as the primary issue.  I could see Tulsi Gabbard doing this as the Presidential candidate, but not as the VP candidate. 

[Figueira]

60-70%, but I think I undershot a bit.

[Dr. MB]

Pretty high. I bet after 2020 every Democratic ticket will have at least one woman or minority.