What will Trump say and do if...
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 22, 2017, 07:38:30 PM »

... Elizabeth Warren wins the EV while losing the PV?
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tosk
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2017, 08:41:08 PM »

oh god. that would be.. hell on earth. that would so awful for this country. probably something like about a rigged election and yadda yadda fake president. HOPEFULLY it's just a "well, sucks, ill move on" and yay happy times but we know our president soooo. yeah. and not to mention Warren would not win over any republicans.. just would suck.
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TPIG
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2017, 09:00:53 PM »

Look to how Trump acted during that brief period on election night 2012 when he thought Mitt Romney won the PV while losing the EC (calling the electoral college "phony" and demanding a revolution) and multiply the anger by 100. That's roughly what it would be like.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2017, 09:27:22 PM »

If Trump is destined to lose re-election I would prefer he lost like this in 2020.
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2017, 09:43:27 PM »

This scenario isn't entirely impossible. For the 2016 election, FiveThirtyEight ran simulations of election results based on polling, and there were some simulations (roughly 1-2%) which produced a Democratic win of the EC without winning the PV.
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ahugecat
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2017, 10:33:01 PM »

I actually believe that Trump WISH he won the PV but lost the EV in 2016. Perhaps he never wanted to be President, but wanted to say "I COULD have won it if I tried" and having a PV "win" could back that claim up.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2017, 10:37:19 PM »

This scenario isn't entirely impossible. For the 2016 election, FiveThirtyEight ran simulations of election results based on polling, and there were some simulations (roughly 1-2%) which produced a Democratic win of the EC without winning the PV.

It's difficult to make up such a scenario, but with Booker on the ticket, they both could win some Southern states that Hillary didn't win and some Western states, while the Inner South and the Great Lakes states and Florida keep on trending Republican due to alienation.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2017, 11:17:58 PM »

I actually believe that Trump WISH he won the PV but lost the EV in 2016. Perhaps he never wanted to be President, but wanted to say "I COULD have won it if I tried" and having a PV "win" could back that claim up.

Not a bad argument
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2017, 12:20:13 AM »

I suppose I'd find the show amusing to a point.

I certainly don't think such a result would be good for our politics.  Half the Presidential elections in the 20th century would be giving the Presidency to the person who received fewer popular votes.  "Here, sir, the people rule!".  Would we be able to say that with credibility?

I do think the Electoral College should be abolished, and the President elected by popular vote.  I think there should be a whole lot of ballot access reform going with such a move. 
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ahugecat
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2017, 12:32:25 AM »
« Edited: October 23, 2017, 12:35:54 AM by 60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED »

I actually believe that Trump WISH he won the PV but lost the EV in 2016. Perhaps he never wanted to be President, but wanted to say "I COULD have won it if I tried" and having a PV "win" could back that claim up.

Not a bad argument

It's his M.O. "I COULD have won if I really wanted to." He does this a LOT. He did it during the 2012 race. He did it when he skipped the Iowa debate, etc. etc.

IMO the popular vote really, really affected him mentally (he even wanted to get rid of the electoral college but Mitch McConnell talked him out of it lol). In 2020 though I think he'll just want to win outright. IMO if  Trump wins next time he will get the popular vote as well.

Me? I just say he lost the popular vote because he didn't spend as much money as Clinton did.
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ahugecat
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2017, 12:34:50 AM »

I suppose I'd find the show amusing to a point.

I certainly don't think such a result would be good for our politics.  Half the Presidential elections in the 20th century would be giving the Presidency to the person who received fewer popular votes.  "Here, sir, the people rule!".  Would we be able to say that with credibility?

I do think the Electoral College should be abolished, and the President elected by popular vote.  I think there should be a whole lot of ballot access reform going with such a move. 

I don't think the electoral college should be abandoned because we do NOTHING nationally for votes. No national referendums for example.

What could help fix it is if all 50 states do what Nebraska and Maine do and split their EVs.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2017, 12:42:07 AM »

If Trump is destined to lose re-election I would prefer he lost like this in 2020.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2017, 03:23:43 AM »

Unlikely, but a storm of garbage tweets like this:

- I always said EC is a total SCAM. I won reelection. System RIGGED!

- Don't believe the FAKE NEWS, I also won PV in '16. Crooked Hillary only "won" because of illegals. Bad!

- I have information that swing state votes were manipulated. Why isn't the Fake News investigating?

- I wanted to campaign in Rust Belt, but incompetent advisers told me it is safe. Now they complain? Pathetic!

- Goofy Elizabeth W is an ILLEGITIMATE president! Public will find out and dump the fake president!

- Pocahontas should step down immediately. People voted OVERWHELMINGLY for TRUMP!
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2017, 06:15:06 AM »

Unlikely, but a storm of garbage tweets like this:
- I wanted to campaign in Rust Belt, but incompetent advisers told me it is safe. Now they complain? Pathetic!

I think if he really is to win the PV while losing the EV he'll have to make gains somewhere, and that somewhere has to be the Rust Belt.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2017, 07:47:08 AM »

Unlikely, but a storm of garbage tweets like this:
- I wanted to campaign in Rust Belt, but incompetent advisers told me it is safe. Now they complain? Pathetic!

I think if he really is to win the PV while losing the EV he'll have to make gains somewhere, and that somewhere has to be the Rust Belt.

Warren is a good fit for the Rust Belt.

That map may be possible:

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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2017, 04:00:40 PM »

Warren is a good fit for the Rust Belt.

Nope. She has a vagina.
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ahugecat
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2017, 04:07:10 PM »


If anything that would help.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2017, 04:23:14 PM »


In The Rust Belt? lol
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UncleSam
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2017, 04:46:45 PM »

The most obvious source of gains for Trump would be in non-competitive massive states - Texas, California, and New York. Simply having a Republican on the statewide ballot could give him literally over a million extra votes in California, and he is from New York so it's always possible that he will do relatively better there than he did against a former Senator from the state. Texas could well swing back to him as well due to conservatives coming home.

The question would be where he loses in the EC while making these gains. The most obvious states would be MI, AZ, and GA - the first simply due to how close it was, and the latter two due to accelerated demographic trends. That would put Trump at 264 electoral votes, so it's possible, but probably not with Warren. Maybe someone like Booker if he becomes hated by the progressive base while simultaneously sparking minority turnout, but who knows.

Honestly the EC vs PV split probably simply favors the campaign with better strategy rather than one party or the other.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2017, 05:11:56 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2017, 05:18:19 PM by RFKFan68 »

Booker can pull it off getting <1 point wins in Michigan and Florida, while holding all the other Hillary states except New Hampshire. Booker's MoV in Minnesota might be a scant 1 point win as well. Trump would need to reduce margins in California, Texas, and New York. While simultaneously expanding his margin in Ohio to 10 points, Wisconsin to 3-5 points, and Pennsylvania to 2-3 points.

Michigan flips blue solely because of heavy turnout in Detroit and Florida flips due to heavy black turnout and slightly increased interest from Puerto Ricans.

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Sestak
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2017, 07:31:44 PM »

Simply having a Republican on the statewide ballot could give him literally over a million extra votes in California, and...

Don't think California is having a major statewide election in 2020. At least not one for an office.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2017, 08:38:24 AM »

I'd worry there would be an actual uprising amongst the hate-filled alt-right who support Trump as their savior.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2017, 10:59:18 AM »

I'd worry there would be an actual uprising amongst the hate-filled alt-right who support Trump as their savior.

In that case, maybe we should just let the alt-right hand pick the presidency from now on and abolish elections. Don't want to start an uprising after all. Roll Eyes
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2017, 04:08:44 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2017, 05:22:20 PM by pbrower2a »

I suppose I'd find the show amusing to a point.

I certainly don't think such a result would be good for our politics.  Half the Presidential elections in the 20th century would be giving the Presidency to the person who received fewer popular votes.  "Here, sir, the people rule!".  Would we be able to say that with credibility?

I do think the Electoral College should be abolished, and the President elected by popular vote.  I think there should be a whole lot of ballot access reform going with such a move.  


What could help fix it is if all 50 states do what Nebraska and Maine do and split their EVs.

But that would require states to undo the gerrymandering that gives Democrats a structural disadvantage in House elections. If we went that way, then we might as well have the House of Representatives do the cote for President. I doubt that that would work well.

Gerrymandering would make a travesty of the electoral vote. In states with four or five electoral votes, but I am not sure where I would draw the line -- maybe eight, so that you don't start splitting urban areas?

If we are to split the electoral votes among the states, then I suggest that

1. the statewide winner receive the two electoral votes relating to the number of Senators.

States with three electoral votes -- it's still winner take all. You will soon see why.

States with four to eight electoral votes? Either go by district with the other electoral votes, or as I would do with larger states.

Here we go. For all but the two votes representing the Senate, divide the number of votes for President by the number of electoral votes left. To get even one electoral vote  one would need a full fraction of the vote suitable for winning a whole electoral vote. Thus if the Libertarian nominee gets 1/53 or more of the popular vote in California, he gets at least that one electoral vote. If not, then votes for candidates not getting enough votes for a fraction of the electoral vote will be disregarded. Nobody will get a fractional electoral vote under any circumstances.

So the state is Ohio, with eighteen electoral votes altogether. The Republican wins the state 51-47 with 2% of the vote going to third-party and independent candidates. One would need 1/16 of the popular vote to get an electoral vote, so no independent or third-party nominee crosses that threshold.  After discarding the rejected votes, the margin goes to  52.04% to 47.98% 

Splitting the electoral votes proportionally, the Republican gets  8.32 shares of the 15 and the Democrat gets 7.68 (estimated to two decimal points).

But there will be no fractional votes. The Democrat is lucky to get seven electoral votes. What would be the fraction goes to the Republican, who gets nine electoral votes.

Thus the Democrat gets 7.67 electoral votes as the fractional share of the electoral vote, the Republican gets two electoral votes for winning the state outright, eight electoral votes for full shares of electoral votes that he won, and the remaining electoral vote goes to the Republican because the overall winner takes the fractional vote.

Thus Ohio goes 11-7 Republican in a close election. Winning a state has value, but it is also a good idea that politicians  address sizable minorities that now do not prove important in winner-take-all elections, like rural voters in largely-urban states and blacks in the South. We still respect the federal system,

Now --  what if this does not resolve the election? We have a second round -- the states vote on a winner-take-all basis, which has failed only twice in the last hundred-twenty years to get the winner of the popular vote. This applies if we have a strong third-party nominee.

OK. To get even one electoral vote in this form of apportionment one would need the plurality in any state with three or four electoral votes.  Five electoral votes? One third. Most of the time just about any state (unless it has five electoral votes and splits something like 70-30 as Utah did in 2012) would split its votes if it apportions votes as I suggest. By district? Different story. Six? At least 25%. Seven? 20%, and to get two one would need at least 40% of the vote. Eight? one sixth, one third to get two, and getting three while falling short of a plurality would be impossible.

My proposal. Federalism is preserved, small states still get over-represented, but large minorities become relevant in  the states. Gerrymandering to select the electorate for Presidential as for Congressional elections would be stopped in large states.
 
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PoliticalJunkie23
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2017, 09:01:37 AM »

That would be hilarious. I'd go to all my favorite Trump loving Youtube channels and watch them throw tantrums for months.
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