UncleSam
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,513
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« on: October 23, 2017, 04:46:45 PM » |
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The most obvious source of gains for Trump would be in non-competitive massive states - Texas, California, and New York. Simply having a Republican on the statewide ballot could give him literally over a million extra votes in California, and he is from New York so it's always possible that he will do relatively better there than he did against a former Senator from the state. Texas could well swing back to him as well due to conservatives coming home.
The question would be where he loses in the EC while making these gains. The most obvious states would be MI, AZ, and GA - the first simply due to how close it was, and the latter two due to accelerated demographic trends. That would put Trump at 264 electoral votes, so it's possible, but probably not with Warren. Maybe someone like Booker if he becomes hated by the progressive base while simultaneously sparking minority turnout, but who knows.
Honestly the EC vs PV split probably simply favors the campaign with better strategy rather than one party or the other.
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