When will Collin County,TX go democrat?
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Author Topic: When will Collin County,TX go democrat?  (Read 1488 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: October 22, 2017, 08:05:46 PM »
discuss. I say 2024 around if Dems win Texas.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2017, 08:10:57 PM »
If it does, it won't be that way for very long.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2017, 12:44:23 PM »
Quote from: Mike Pence on October 22, 2017, 08:10:57 PM
If it does, it won't be that way for very long.

Why?   It'll probably flip permanently before too long.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2017, 01:49:07 PM »
Quote from: AKCreative on October 23, 2017, 12:44:23 PM
Quote from: Mike Pence on October 22, 2017, 08:10:57 PM
If it does, it won't be that way for very long.

Why?   It'll probably flip permanently before too long.

Why?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2017, 03:03:15 PM »
When the Democratic nominee is winning Texas by 4-5%, most likely.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2017, 03:03:42 PM »
Quote from: PNM on October 23, 2017, 01:53:39 PM

Similar theory as to why Republicans can't win Rockdale or Douglas County, Georgia anymore despite winning them in landslides as recently as 2004.
Not really Rockdale and Douglas flipped because Republican hit a ceiling with white voters and a large influx of African American voters moved in who vote 9/10 democrat. If Collin County were to flip it would be the same reason why Cobb and Gwinnett. The two flipped because enough college whites voted 3rd party or Democrats combine with a large share of minority voters help push them over the edge to win. Democrats received a large share of the vote in Gwinnett than in Newton but Republican are more likely to win Gwinnett back than Newton because there is literally no more prospective GOP voters to pick up not bearing a large turnout drop.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2017, 08:31:47 PM »
Now this one is much more plausible than Williamson.  I almost want to say I would be surprised if it didn't flip in the next Dem win, but if that's 2020, it might be too soon.  I'll go with 2024, which is likely to either be the standard 8 year itch win for the out party or a substantial reelection of an incumbent Dem.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #7 on: November 15, 2017, 09:17:00 PM »
nooooooooooooo
this can't happen
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2017, 02:29:46 AM »
A better benchmark would be to ask when Tarrant flips. Collin won't flip before that occurs.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2017, 04:33:16 AM »
Quote from: Tartarus Sauce on November 21, 2017, 02:29:46 AM
A better benchmark would be to ask when Tarrant flips. Collin won't flip before that occurs.

Good point....

Tarrant is more than likely to flip in 2020 at the Pres level if Trump is the 'Pub nominee...

For all the discussion regarding the "Latino Surge in '16", the reality is that despite shifts in voting patterns among Middle-Class Latino voters in the Southwest, and an increase in new voters "Latino Millennials", the major swings in the large Metro areas of the Southwest (Including Texas) actually happened in heavily Upper Middle-Class Anglo 'Burbs.

I have posted elsewhere about the massive swings in Metro Phoenix, DFW, Houston, etc, and although Dems will gain significantly on the margins in places like Collins and Montgomery County Texas, Tarrant will definitely flip before Collins, which will flip after Hays and Williamson in Central Tex....

Meanwhile Dems will be racking up 400k margins in Harris County most likely by 2020, as well as 50k vote margins in Fort Bend....
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2017, 07:30:18 AM »
Flip Tarrant and Hays first, and keep Fort Bend in the blue (Atlas red) column beforehand.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2018, 04:38:34 PM »
Quote from: politicalmasta73 on October 22, 2017, 08:05:46 PM
discuss. I say 2024 around if Dems win Texas.
Maybe 2024. Slight chance in 2020.
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