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| | |-+  Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump
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Author Topic: Ed Kilgore to Dems: Please don't nominate someone older than Trump  (Read 801 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: October 22, 2017, 11:20:09 pm »
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http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/democrats-shouldnt-run-anyone-in-20-whos-older-than-trump.html

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Biden 2020 or Sanders 2020 is a really bad idea, for reasons that go beyond the anomaly that either would make the oldest man ever elected president the youth candidate in his reelection bid. There are certainly octogenarians who are physically fit, sharp as a tack, and as competent at work as any whippersnapper. But its no secret that when people, particularly men, get to that age, the risk of mortality rises significantly (a 75-year-old man has a 22 percent chance of dying within six years), and along with it the possibility of cognitive deterioration (an estimated 15 percent of people between the ages of 80 and 84 suffer from some form of dementia). If voters fear any of that happening, it could (particularly with some encouragement from the kind of intensely hostile conservative media that Sanders and Biden were spared in 2016) affect their electability in ways that are not easy to anticipate in scope and power. And even more obviously, if a 77- or 79-year-old candidate suffers from any real or perceived impairment, the issue could take over the campaign to an extent that makes Hillary Clintons email problem look minor.

Setting some cap on the age of presidential candidates is inherently an arbitrary exercise. But in terms of 2020, the logical rule would be that Democrats should not consider as nominees anyone older than Trump himself, who will turn 74 during the general-election campaign. Democrats should let him be the one to parry questions and concerns about age and health.
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2017, 11:47:58 pm »
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Any candidate will have flaws. The question is really wether the age issue would be a bigger problem than anything else. It wasn't a huge deal for Reagan, so treating this as a singular issue on which to decide a nominee is silly. It's a consideration sure, but not as big a deal as this guy is making it out to be.
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2017, 12:03:53 am »
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I'm not particulary eager for either of them to be the nominee but they were both in contention for the nomination (privately in Biden's case) in 2016. They would have theoretically ran for re-election in 2020. They do not have to serve a second term.

Either way, if their age is truly an issue then people will simply decline to vote for them. Over dramatic op-eds will not be a deterrent if the people truly want them.
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2017, 12:29:38 am »
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If Biden or Sanders win and gets re-elected, that means we'd have someone born in the 1940s (not even a baby boomer too!) being the President in 2029! That's just surreal.

Bob Dole really took the age thing to the limit but if Biden or Sanders won that'd be insane. We will skip over people born in the 1950s like how we skipped over people born in the 1930s.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2017, 12:40:32 am »
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Either way, if their age is truly an issue then people will simply decline to vote for them. Over dramatic op-eds will not be a deterrent if the people truly want them.

He's suggesting that it might end up sinking them in the general election even if it doesn't sink them in the primary.  (I'm not saying he's right.  But that's the case he's making.)

"If their age is truly an issue then people will simply decline to vote for them."  Well yes, but if you, as a primary voter, think that something might end up being enough of an issue in the general election that other voters will simply "decline to vote for" the candidate in question, then that could be a legit reason not to support them in the primary, no?
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2017, 12:56:05 am »
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A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2017, 02:19:40 am »
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A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU

You can't tell me that there is not a single potential candidate under 65 who is the right (wo)man for the job. Come on...
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2017, 02:36:55 am »
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The youngest potential candidates; Zuckerberg, Booker, Castro, are all god-awful.
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2017, 02:49:23 am »
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The youngest potential candidates; Zuckerberg, Booker, Castro, are all god-awful.

How about Tim Ryan or Joe Kennedy? At least for VP.
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2017, 03:04:50 am »
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The youngest potential candidates; Zuckerberg, Booker, Castro, are all god-awful.

How about Tim Ryan or Joe Kennedy? At least for VP.

Ryan is an ok VP pick for somebody. Joe Kennedy sucks, and people really only like the Kennedy's that got shot. The rest of the family is awful.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2017, 03:28:07 am »
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A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU

You can't tell me that there is not a single potential candidate under 65 who is the right (wo)man for the job. Come on...

No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie. Merkley is the only one under 65 I can think of that could really make a run in 2020.
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2017, 07:03:55 am »
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Either way, if their age is truly an issue then people will simply decline to vote for them. Over dramatic op-eds will not be a deterrent if the people truly want them.

He's suggesting that it might end up sinking them in the general election even if it doesn't sink them in the primary.  (I'm not saying he's right.  But that's the case he's making.)

"If their age is truly an issue then people will simply decline to vote for them."  Well yes, but if you, as a primary voter, think that something might end up being enough of an issue in the general election that other voters will simply "decline to vote for" the candidate in question, then that could be a legit reason not to support them in the primary, no?

As long as Biden or Sanders don't go missing on the campaign trail for weeks or have video of them being propped up by Secret Service before being thrown in a van like a slab of meat they will be fine.
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2017, 07:16:29 am »
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Any candidate will have flaws. The question is really wether the age issue would be a bigger problem than anything else. It wasn't a huge deal for Reagan, so treating this as a singular issue on which to decide a nominee is silly. It's a consideration sure, but not as big a deal as this guy is making it out to be.
Nor was it a problem for Trump, who is now the oldest president at inauguration.
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2017, 07:48:44 am »
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A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU

You can't tell me that there is not a single potential candidate under 65 who is the right (wo)man for the job. Come on...

No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie. Merkley is the only one under 65 I can think of that could really make a run in 2020.

Your obsession with Bernie becomes increasingly obscure. Name rec comes as the campaign proceeds. Nobody knew Obama in 2007, Bill Clinton in 1989 or Jimmy Carter in 1975.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2017, 07:48:54 am »
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No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie.

Name recognition doesn't matter in the general election, since the very process of winning the nomination gives you ~100% name recognition among voters.  I mean, heck, Sanders himself was not well known among regular voters outside Vermont four years ago, but his run for president itself gave him high name recognition, and if he'd been the nominee, he would have gone into the general election with ~100% name recognition.  Same for anyone who wins the presidential nomination of one of the two major parties.  No one goes into the voting booth in November not knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2017, 07:56:00 am »
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A good President with a higher risk of dying is much better than a bad President with a lower risk of dying.

Mortality rates are lower if someone is in good health and not a poor without good medical care.

And can you imagine Trump running like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORSRybY-eUU

You can't tell me that there is not a single potential candidate under 65 who is the right (wo)man for the job. Come on...

No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie. Merkley is the only one under 65 I can think of that could really make a run in 2020.

Your obsession with Bernie becomes increasingly obscure. Name rec comes as the campaign proceeds. Nobody knew Obama in 2007, Bill Clinton in 1989 or Jimmy Carter in 1975.

It's going to be hard with someone with low name recognition to run a campaign in the Super Tuesday states, including California before Iowa votes. Obama had 25% support the moment he announced, so isn't a good example of low name recognition. The big names stayed out in 1992, and Iowa was over a month before any other race in 1976.
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jfern
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2017, 07:57:34 am »
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No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie.

Name recognition doesn't matter in the general election, since the very process of winning the nomination gives you ~100% name recognition among voters.  I mean, heck, Sanders himself was not well known among regular voters outside Vermont four years ago, but his run for president itself gave him high name recognition, and if he'd been the nominee, he would have gone into the general election with ~100% name recognition.  Same for anyone who wins the presidential nomination of one of the two major parties.  No one goes into the voting booth in November not knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is.


I'm talking about the primary. If you're a progressive with low name recognition and the DNC doesn't want to help you, and the media is ignoring you, you have a problem.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2017, 08:19:58 am »
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No one has the progressive qualifications and name recognition of Bernie.

Name recognition doesn't matter in the general election, since the very process of winning the nomination gives you ~100% name recognition among voters.  I mean, heck, Sanders himself was not well known among regular voters outside Vermont four years ago, but his run for president itself gave him high name recognition, and if he'd been the nominee, he would have gone into the general election with ~100% name recognition.  Same for anyone who wins the presidential nomination of one of the two major parties.  No one goes into the voting booth in November not knowing who the Democratic nominee for president is.


I'm talking about the primary. If you're a progressive with low name recognition and the DNC doesn't want to help you, and the media is ignoring you, you have a problem.

If you win one of the early primary states (or possibly even if you just start polling well in one of them), then you get high name recognition.  We don't yet know who's going to catch on and end up with high name ID by the time we get to primary voting because the campaign hasn't started yet.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2017, 08:30:13 am »
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The youngest potential candidates; Zuckerberg, Booker, Castro, are all god-awful.

Garcetti and Murphy are younger than Booker, as are the House crew (Gabbard, Moulton, Ryan).  In any case, I think the point here wasn't that you should go as young as possible, just that you should think carefully about picking someone who's way at the other end of the age spectrum.
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2017, 10:23:08 am »
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In short, an 80 year old is not a fresh new voice.
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2017, 10:41:35 am »
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Pick a good VP and it's no problem. That's literally what the VP is there for.
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we get it, you're a horrible person.
Y'know, at least Santander embraces and admits to being a piece of s**t.
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2017, 10:55:26 am »
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Pick a good VP and it's no problem. That's literally what the VP is there for.
Correct. Especially if Sanders or Biden decline to run for a second term (which I think both would do if they were elected)--- their VP would be the de facto nominee going into 2024.
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2017, 12:30:21 pm »
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Biden or bust!!

Lol, but in all seriousness, the Democrats do have a problem with all their superstars aging. But at this point, our first priority needs to be a winning candidate, and I'm convinced Biden is that.
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Ninja0428
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2017, 01:29:39 pm »
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Biden or bust!!

Lol, but in all seriousness, the Democrats do have a problem with all their superstars aging. But at this point, our first priority needs to be a winning candidate, and I'm convinced Biden is that.
Exactly. He wont even be much older than Trump.
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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2017, 01:38:58 pm »
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The youngest potential candidates; Zuckerberg, Booker, Castro, are all god-awful.

Garcetti and Murphy are younger than Booker, as are the House crew (Gabbard, Moulton, Ryan).  In any case, I think the point here wasn't that you should go as young as possible, just that you should think carefully about picking someone who's way at the other end of the age spectrum.


Garcetti would rather spend billions on the Olympics than housing for his cities massive homeless population. F**k 'em.

Murphy is okay but is the most boring Generic D candidate possible.

Gabbard has god-awful ties to things like the BJP

Seth Moulton? F***************************K no.


It's not that 'IT HAS TO BE BERNIE REEEEEE", it's that the drop in quality after you get past Bernie is so massive.

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