Are the Democrats going to outperform their polling averages in NJ and VA?
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  Are the Democrats going to outperform their polling averages in NJ and VA?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Yes, in both VA and NJ		  
#2
Only in NJ		  
#3
Only in VA		  
#4
No		  
#5
No, but the Republicans will in VA		  
#6
No, but the Republicans will in NJ		  
#7
No, but the Republicans will in both states		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 56

Author Topic: Are the Democrats going to outperform their polling averages in NJ and VA?  (Read 925 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: October 27, 2017, 02:38:12 PM »
I'm beginning to think that this is actually a pretty plausible scenario. We aren't used to Democrats outperforming their polling averages in VA, but I think there's a good chance it could happen this year. Pretty sure it will happen in NJ anyway.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2017, 02:52:24 PM »
NJ definitely. VA probably.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2017, 02:57:11 PM »
NJ will probably be about right. I have no idea in VA. The Gillespie leads might balance out the giant Northam leads and make it relatively accurate overall.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2017, 03:08:34 PM »
Quinnipiac has Murphy getting 57%. I think he's going to break 60%, probably between 62-65% of the vote. I also think Northam will break 50% and get a majority of the PV. So I'll go with both.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2017, 07:16:37 PM »

This.

Also keep in mind that Northam's polling average is +7. Most people seem to think that's his ceiling for some reason.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2017, 08:20:16 PM »
Lean yes on both.  I think it's primarily a federal opposition party turnout phenomenon
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2017, 03:40:27 PM »
Maybe in NJ, Gillespie should have an outperformance in VA, although it might be far less than Cuccinelli in 2013.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2017, 03:50:16 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 27, 2017, 08:20:16 PM
Lean yes on both.  I think it's primarily a federal opposition party turnout phenomenon

Exactly
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2017, 05:29:21 PM »
Only New Jersey. Murphy will win with 57-58% at least.

I really fear that Northam could lose now, what would be a huge setback for Democrats in the Trump era.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2017, 07:07:37 PM »
Could there be a reverse Comey Letter effect with the Mueller indictments coming tomorrow?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2017, 07:15:51 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 29, 2017, 07:07:37 PM
Could there be a reverse Comey Letter effect with the Mueller indictments coming tomorrow?

What do you mean by a reverse Comey effect? 
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2017, 07:16:45 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 29, 2017, 07:07:37 PM
Could there be a reverse Comey Letter effect with the Mueller indictments coming tomorrow?

Possible, since 2016 was a structurally republican cycle and the 2017-2019 cycles should be structurally democratic.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2017, 07:46:31 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2017, 07:15:51 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 29, 2017, 07:07:37 PM
Could there be a reverse Comey Letter effect with the Mueller indictments coming tomorrow?

What do you mean by a reverse Comey effect? 

Some people believe the Comey Letter about new emails being uncovered explains the narrowing of Clinton's lead from +6-7 to +2-3 in polling averages in the last 10 days of the election and hence Trump's EC win. 

There's also the argument (more convincing in my view) that the shift in news coverage from the government shutdown to the botched Obamacare rollout explained Cuccinelli closing so well in VA-GOV 2013.
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