Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[Oryxslayer]

One year later, we come full circle.

[jaichind]

So the official English name of the new DP-HP merged party  國民民主黨 will be Democratic Party of the People (DPFP) and not National Democratic Party which would be a straight translation of the name.  It seems there was a fear that the party would be seen as Right wing if it used the National in its name when its approach would be Centrist with a slight Left lean.  The Hawk Right bloc within HP from the old DP Far Right and PJK will most likely form a rump HP so HP will continue.

So net net relative to 2017, DP split into 3 blocs.  The Left became DCP, Center became DPFP, and the small Hawk Right merged with various PJK and other ex-YP Far Right sections to become a Hawk Right Third Pole HP.

[Kingpoleon]

HP-DP merger party 國民民主黨 (National Democratic Party) (NDP) (not sure this is the official English name of the party) kicks off

What’s the deal with that pose?

[jaichind]

What’s the deal with that pose?

The are standard at Japanese pep rallies.  Here is 蓮舫(Renho) at the rally where she took over DP leadership in Sept 2016.

 

[jaichind]

Latest Kyodo shows has Abe Cabinet approval at 38.9 (+1.9) and



The new DPFP support not shooting up.  Party support has it at

自民(LDP)          37.1（+0.3）
立憲民主(CDP) 　13.3（+1.4）
共産(JCP)   　　　4.5（-0.6）
公明(KP)    　　　3.7（+0.5）
維新(JRP)   　　　1.5（-1.5）
国民民主(DPFP) 　1.1 (new）
社民(SDP)  　　　0.8（-0.4）
自由(LP)    　　　0.7（+0.5）
希望(HP)   　　　0.7（-1.0） (Hardliner Hawk right faction of HP will continue as HP)

It seems the DP-HP merger mostly benefited CDP with DPFP not getting too much support so far.

[jaichind]

Abe approval rating curve comes back.  He is safe for now.  Sept 2018 LDP race still up in the air but you have to give Abe reasonably good chance of winning that too.

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election this weekend.  In 2016 the opposition pulled off an upset win over LDP 52-46 over the nuclear issue.  The pro-opposition governor had to resign over a sex scandal.  Just like 2018 it will be a showdown between a pro-LDP candidate and an united opposition candidate (backed by CDP SDP LP JCP and the newly formed DPP.)  The all polling shows the race neck-to-neck.  There is another pro-opposition candidate in the mix but he is expected to get very few if any votes.

It seems the DP-HP merger party which is 国民民主党 decided to call itself Democratic Party For the People or DPP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What party is Ozawa and his crew in at the moment?

[jaichind]

Abe's approval curve still pretty much flat which means he is not out of danger for Sept 2018 LDP Prez race but he will not be booted out earlier then that.  Abe now needs another DPRK crisis to push up his ratings to the high 40s from high 30s.

[jaichind]

What party is Ozawa and his crew in at the moment?

Still LP.  Ozawa and gang ran as pro-HP independents in 2017 but then just reverted to LP afterwards when it was clear HP did not take off.

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election vote in progress.  This will be a test of if the non-JRP but inclusive of JCP united opposition can defeat LDP 1-on-1 in a swing prefecture.  If the united opposition wins then it shows that it can pull off a similar feat in 2019 as the 2016 Upper House single district seats races.  Given that JRP is in decline in (大阪)Osaka and (兵庫)Hyōgo then it is unlikely the non-JRP will be shut out of these prefectures. So this means that LDP-KP plus JRP will do worse in 2019 than in 2016.  If so then LDP only has a year left before the pro-Constitutional revisionist 2/3 majority in the Upper House is removed. 

[jaichind]

With DP-HP merger into DPP a rump HP continues on as a Far Right Hawk party.  In fact most of the HP parliamentary caucus all were members of Far Right Hawk party of PFG of 2014-2016.  Main problem with this party is that 3 out of 5 MPs it has were elected in 2013 Upper House elections (as members of YP or JRP) and all 3 are unlikely to be elected as there seems very little prospect of this party crossing 2% to get PR seats especially with PJK still hanging around to split the Far Right Hawk vote.  So after 2019 this party will most likely decline into irreverence.

[jaichind]

One funny fact about the 新潟(Niigata) governor by-election is that the LDP planned to deploy popular LDP MP Koizumi Junior to campaign for the pro-LDP candidate.  But then LDP ex-PM Koizumi Senior who is well known to be hostile to Abe as well as taken up the banner of anti-nuclear power and against position of the LDP have voiced support for the united opposition candidate.  To avoid pitting Koizumi Junior against his own father LDP scrapped plans to deploy Koizumi Junior in the election campaign.

[jaichind]

All signs are that turnout for 新潟(Niigata) governor by-election is higher than 2018.  If so that is a ominous sign for LDP. 

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election voting over.  Exit polls show neck-to-neck race with a tiny advantage for pro-LDP candidate (mostly by using eyeball observation of the chart)

[jaichind]

Rural village 関川村 done.  pro-LDP 59% United Opposition 38%.  Back in 2016 it was pro-LDP 54.9% United Opposition 42.7%.  It seems the rural vote is swinging toward LDP.  Unless there is a swing in urban area away from LDP then LDP chances of winning seem pretty good.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll



LDP voters (red) (37% of voters) and KP voters (pink) (3% of voters) mostly pro-LDP.
CDP voters (light blue) (13% of voters) and DPP voters (Dark blue) (2% of voters) mostly united opposition
JCP(purple) LP (light green) SDP(dark green) also for united opposition
Non-Aligned(35% of votes) breaking for united opposition.


A lot KP voters in there exist polls claims to be LDP voters due to social stigma.  A lot of Non-Aligned voters are hidden pro-opposition (including pro-JCP) voters.

[jaichind]

Another rural village 弥彦村 done:  United opposition 48.4% pro-LDP 47.5%.  Back in 2016 it was   United opposition 55.5% pro-LDP 41.9%.  Another swing toward LDP.

[jaichind]

3% of the vote counted

pro-LDP                50.5%
United opposition   47.2%

[jaichind]

Some of the early prelim urban results show a swing away from United Opposition from 2016 but at much reduced levels and enough for United Opposition to win.  So it really comes down to the strength of swings in urban areas vs rural areas.

With 5% of the vote counted

pro-LDP                50.6%
United opposition   46.2%

[jaichind]

TBS exit poll has it at a hedging their bets

pro-LDP                 47.4%
United opposition   47.3%

[jaichind]

Urban/Suburban area 十日町市 done

pro-LDP                 49.1%
United opposition   47.6%

back in 2016 it was
pro-LDP                 48.2%
United opposition   50.6%

If this holds not enough for LDP to win give in 2016 it was overall

pro-LDP                 45.9%
United opposition   52.2%

[jaichind]

Election called for pro-LDP candidate

With 60% of the vote counted it is

pro-LDP                 49.5%
United opposition   46.6%

I think the final result will be a tiny bit closer but this result is a victory for Abe.  Seems like he is now fairly favored to win the 2018 Sept LDP Prez election.  Quite amazing when a couple of months ago, like the Summer of 2017, it seems that he was finished and on his way out.

[jaichind]

With 94% of the vote counted it is

pro-LDP                 48.6%
United opposition   47.6%

Outstanding votes I think more leans LDP

[jaichind]

All votes counted

pro-LDP                 49.6%
United opposition   46.3%

Which is a significant swing to LDP from 2016 and a larger than expected victory for the pro-LDP candidate.  It was not even an issue of the "Third Party" candidate which has pro-Opposition origins but looking at exit polls took votes from both camps equally and if anything more from the pro-LDP camp.