Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor election is results is interesting is that if you look at the vote share by the 6 national districts, the pro-LDP candidate won Districts 1 2 3 4 while the United Opposition won Districts 5 and 6.  Back in Oct 2017 National Diet elections it was also an United Opposition vs LDP.  There the United Opposition won Districts 1 2 3 4 while LDP won Districts 5 and 6 which is exactly the opposite of the Governor by-election.  Goes to show how personalities/candidate play a large role in determining the winner especially in swing districts. 

[jaichind]

For 2019 Upper House elections the current proposal is to add an extra seat for 埼玉(Saitama) so it goes from a 3 seat district to 4 while adding 2 PR seats overall.  This way the district seats goes from 73 to 74 while PR seats goes from 48 to 50.  This is done to reduce the seat to population disparity between different districts which if not reduced risks the Japan supreme court ruling the entire election process unconstitutional.  In order to make progress on this for 2016 鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) had to be merged into one seat and the same for 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi).  There were a lot of complaints about this from those 4 prefectures and adding 2 PR seats is a way to increase the chances that someone from these 4 prefectures make it into the Upper House.

Overall 埼玉(Saitama) going from 3 to 4 seats helps the opposition.  Usually a 3 seat district ends up being LDP-KP 2 Opposition 1.  In a 4 seat district it is usually LDP 1 KP 1 Opposition 1 Opposition or JCP 1.

[jaichind]

Abe approval rating curve heading up.  His position for Sept 2018 LDP Prez election getting better and better.  There seems to be low support for Abe personally but support for the Abe Cabinet is heading up.  The fact that LDP MPs and local chapters will vote for LDP Prez gives Abe an edge since that vote is more about who can lead LDP to victory in 2019 Upper House.

[jaichind]

LDP faction leader Toshihiro Nikai (二階 俊博) who leads the Nikai faction made the comment that Abe is a shoe in to win re-election in the Sept 2018 LDP Prez reace.  Nikai used to be a rival of Abe but since 2016 Abe made him Secretary General of the LDP in an attempt to pull his faction into the Abe circle.  I guess as long as Abe gets his own faction to back him, also keep the loyalty of the Aso faction led by DPM Tarō Asō (麻生 太郎) and as long as his approval rating stays above 40% then Nikai is most likely right.  I guess Abe survives another near death experience.

[jaichind]

For 2019 Upper House elections the current proposal is to add an extra seat for 埼玉(Saitama) so it goes from a 3 seat district to 4 while adding 2 PR seats overall.  This way the district seats goes from 73 to 74 while PR seats goes from 48 to 50.  This is done to reduce the seat to population disparity between different districts which if not reduced risks the Japan supreme court ruling the entire election process unconstitutional.  In order to make progress on this for 2016 鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) had to be merged into one seat and the same for 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi).  There were a lot of complaints about this from those 4 prefectures and adding 2 PR seats is a way to increase the chances that someone from these 4 prefectures make it into the Upper House.

Overall 埼玉(Saitama) going from 3 to 4 seats helps the opposition.  Usually a 3 seat district ends up being LDP-KP 2 Opposition 1.  In a 4 seat district it is usually LDP 1 KP 1 Opposition 1 Opposition or JCP 1.

This plan just got approved. So for the 2019 Upper House elections it will be 73 district seats and 48 PR seats for 121 seats it will be 74 district seats and 50 PR seats for 124 seats up for election. 

[jaichind]

April 2019 there will be a large number of prefecture elections.  All prefectures except for 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 福島(Fukushima) [these 3 got "knocked off the regular cycle" due to the 2011 nuclear accident], 茨城(Ibaraki), 東京(Tokyo), and 沖縄(Okinawa) will have their prefecture election at that time.

茨城(Ibaraki) will have theirs in Dec 2018.

There have been a lot of churn since April 2015 in the non-JCP opposition space.  Namely DPJ has basically split into a Centrist DPP and a Center-Left CDP.  It seems CDP might have alliances with JCP in some prefectures but that is yet to be seen.  It is also possible if not likely that CDP will have alliances with DPP in some prefectures.

The main advantage for the LDP-KP is that they tend to have most of the raw talent at the local level since distribution of subsidies from the central government to the prefecture government flow via LDP MPs to LDP MLAs.   The LDP-KP alliance also means that unless DCP DPP and JCP can form alliances in 1-seat districts then LDP-KP are destined to sweep all of them. 

A look at how the seats are distributed between 1- 2- and even larger districts between different prefectures gives us a sense of the LDP advantage.   The dynamic will be that LDP will sweep all the 1- seat districts and potentially 2- seat districts in rural areas.  In 3- seat districts it will be LDP-LDP(or KP)-Opposition.  In 4 seat districts it will be LDP-KP-Opposition-JCP(or Opposition).  Beyond that JCP will for sure win a seat and other smaller opposition parties (JCP and SDP) will begin to get seats. 

 

茨城(Ibaraki), 埼玉(Saitama), 新潟(Niigata), 岐阜(Gifu), 大阪(Osaka), 高知(Kōchi), 福岡(Fukuoka), 熊本   (Kumamoto), and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) have a large number of seats which are 1- seat districts which gives the LDP (or JRP in Osaka) a large advantage. 

In some prefectures the LDP is so strong that a local rebel LDP faction is actually the real opposition and pulls in opposition votes and leaves the non-JCP opposition with even less votes.  茨城(Ibaraki) is an example of this although post-2017 Lower House elections the local LDP rebel kingpin 中村 喜四郎 (Nakamura Kishirō) decided to join forces with the non-JCP opposition and will most likely have an alliance with DPP if not also with CDP.

Some prefectures have specialized local circumstances.

In 岩手(Iwate) Ozawa's LP is the lynch pin of the non-JCP opposition and has deprived LDP-KP of a majority.
In 東京(Tokyo) we have Koike's  TPFA as the ruling party although with Koike's political reputation ruined with HP and 2017 elections TPFA will fall into decline to the benefit of LDP soon.
In 三重(Mie) a local anti-JCP opposition party (New Politics Mie) in alliance with the non-JCP opposition has help drive LDP-KP to below a majority.
In 大阪(Osaka) JRP-KP has a majority.  In Osaka it is de facto JRP-KP vs LDP-(non-JCP opposition)-JCP.   JRP is a LDP splinter so the LDP branch of Osaka is so hostile to JRP it rather have a de facto alliance with JCP than work with JRP.
In 沖縄(Okinawa) due to the base issue an broad anti-base Center-Left alliance have a majority.
In 滋賀(Shiga) a anti-LDP center-left local opposition (Team Shiga) in alliance with the non-JCP alliance has driven LDP-KP close to losing its majority.

The main battle in April is will LDP-KP lose ground at the prefecture level.  LDP does have a chance at winning a majority in 大阪(Osaka) and the non-JCP opposition will work to keep the LDP-KP from a majority in  三重(Mie) and perhaps 滋賀(Shiga).  Longer but possible shots have driving LDP-KP to below majority will be 長野(Nagano) and 京都(Kyoto) [JCP are strong there but that makes it harder for JCP and non-JCP opposition to form an alliance].  Everywhere else it is at best a battle to reduce the size of the LDP-KP majority.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval recovery now stabilizing and reversing a bit.

[jaichind]

Former Foreign Minister  岸田 文雄(Kishida Fumio) said he will not run in the Sept 2018 LDP Prez elections and instead will back Abe.  This pretty much seals it for Abe who will now win an unprecedented third term and most likely stay on as PM until 2021 making him the longest serving Japanese PM of the modern era.  Most likely 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) will run making it nominally a competitive race unlike the 2015 Abe walkover but his faction is far too small to be a threat to Abe.

[PSOL]

So with the More left Democratic Party, how much of it is originating from splinters of LDP, like with HP being former rebels.

[EPG]

So with the More left Democratic Party, how much of it is originating from splinters of LDP, like with HP being former rebels.

Very few. CDP are mainly long-standing politicians formerly on the left of the DPJ, who got their start in the 90s mini-parties like the New Party - Sakigake, Japan New Party, etc., or long-standing small parties like the Japan Socialist Party. This describes at least half the caucus. Also some younger DPJ politicians, a small number of political novices, and a small number of anti-revisionists from centre-right parties like JIP, PNP or LDP.

[jaichind]

So with the More left Democratic Party, how much of it is originating from splinters of LDP, like with HP being former rebels.

Very few. CDP are mainly long-standing politicians formerly on the left of the DPJ, who got their start in the 90s mini-parties like the New Party - Sakigake, Japan New Party, etc., or long-standing small parties like the Japan Socialist Party. This describes at least half the caucus. Also some younger DPJ politicians, a small number of political novices, and a small number of anti-revisionists from centre-right parties like JIP, PNP or LDP.

Totally correct.  Although parties like JNP and NPS are LDP splinters themselves.  In the case of people that ended up in CDP that had a JNP and NPS background back in the 1990s all of them were not in the LDP but joined JNP and NPS after they were formed.

[jaichind]

Kyodo News poll shows that of the 405 LDP lawmakers across both houses of the Diet, 310 or 76.5% said they plan to vote for Abe in the September election, with many citing the success of his economic policies and diplomatic tact.

[Foucaulf]

I posted this a while back on AAD - "a sizable flowchart of Japanese political parties since the War." I hesitated to post this on Atlas, most importantly because the forum software can't handle a figure as wide as this flowchart. Therefore, you'll have to open the image in a new window to actually read anything.

[jaichind]

I posted this a while back on AAD - "a sizable flowchart of Japanese political parties since the War." I hesitated to post this on Atlas, most importantly because the forum software can't handle a figure as wide as this flowchart. Therefore, you'll have to open the image in a new window to actually read anything.

This is awesome. Thanks.   I never put much time into the pre-1955 party system so your chart is very useful.  A couple of minor points I would like to make
1) Party for Future Generations is written "次世代" not "次时代"
2) In addition to defections from LDP and DPJ, when Japan Restoration Party (日本維新の会) was started in 2012 it got some defections from Your Party (みんなの党) as well.
3) A predecessor to Sunrise Party (太陽の党) which was formed in 2010 was Hiranuma Group(平沼グループ ) which was formed by LDP postal reform rebel Takeo Hiranuma (平沼 赳夫) 2009 with most LDP defectors but a couple of DPJ MPs as a Far Right Hawk group.  It was then renamed Committee to protect national interests and people's lives(国益と国民の生活を守る会) after the 2009 elections.  When Sunrise Party (太陽の党) was formed in 2010 had Takeo Hiranuma (平沼 赳夫) also taking most of the Committee to protect national interests and people's lives(国益と国民の生活を守る会) with him.  What remains merged back into LDP in 2011.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-okinawa-election/son-of-u-s-marine-elected-okinawa-governor-on-anti-u-s-base-platform-idUSKCN1MA0K6?il=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, how much of Sakima's defeat was due to the Okinawa base issue, and how much of it was due to other factors?

[EPG]

It's the predominant question in Okinawan politics, the sine qua non. Okinawa has just 4 direct seats in the lower house of the Diet, yet it is the only prefecture to elect members from not just the small Communist Party, but the tiny Social Democratic Party, precisely because of their leadership of and participation in the anti-base movement.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-okinawa-election/son-of-u-s-marine-elected-okinawa-governor-on-anti-u-s-base-platform-idUSKCN1MA0K6?il=0

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, how much of Sakima's defeat was due to the Okinawa base issue, and how much of it was due to other factors?

I wrote about it here

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=298240.msg6440776#msg6440776

It is mostly if not all about the base.  Danny Tamaki campaigned about being against the bases. His victory speech is pretty much a promise to continue blocking any attempt to move the bases and insist that the goal should be the removal of all bases.  Okinawa politics is pretty much all about the bases. 

[Lachi]

Also, today marks exactly one year since the formation of the Constitutional Democratic Party.

[jaichind]

Various scandals, economic impact of tax increase and now coronavirus drives Abe Cabinet approval down to even and headed into negative territory.

[PSOL]

Still won’t be enough to finally get the LDP out of office.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Still won’t be enough to finally get the LDP out of office.

"There is no one else "

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval back above water as the virus crisis shock have been absorbed and there is a bit of a rally-around-the-flag effect for Abe. 

[jaichind]

Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike is up for re-election in June 2020.  Yuriko Koike ran as an LDP rebel in 2016 defeating the LDP candidate to win and then attempted to become the leader of an anti-LDP front in 2017. 

Now, under the old rule of "if you win you are LDP" it seems LDP will end up backing Yuriko Koike for re-election ensuring her re-election since a LDP-KP-Koike alliance plus JRP just to make sure is certainly going to get a large majority of the vote in the governor election especially when governor elections always favors the sitting incumbent.  Of course part of the reason LDP did this is because LDP concluded that a LDP candidate, even backed by KP, is unlikely to defeat Koike anyway.  So if you cannot beat them, join them.

[jaichind]

Big news

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/24/tokyo-olympics-to-be-postponed-to-2021-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic

Abe and IOC agrees to delay Olympics for one year.  There goes Abe's plan of a late 2020 lower house election in the afterglow of a successful Tokyo Olympics. Of course that plan was sort of dead anyway after the virus outbreak in Jan-Feb.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Big news

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/24/tokyo-olympics-to-be-postponed-to-2021-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic

Abe and IOC agrees to delay Olympics for one year.  There goes Abe's plan of a late 2020 lower house election in the afterglow of a successful Tokyo Olympics. Of course that plan was sort of dead anyway after the virus outbreak in Jan-Feb.

When do you think Abe likely holds the next election then?