Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties, MT

[TML]

As we all know, these two counties have consistently voted Democratic for the last 60 years. However, in 2016 both counties recorded margins closer than just about any other recent election in history (Silver Bow closest since 1980, Deer Lodge closest since 1956).

This reminds me of what happened in Elliott County, KY: although that county had always voted Democratic from its founding, its margin in 2008, although decisive, was the closest up to that point, which was then followed by a narrow Democratic win in 2012 and a decisive Republican win in 2016.

Thus, I've been wondering: is it safe to say that Silver Bow and Deer Lodge are no longer considered "locks" for Democrats, and that they could be picked off by a Republican presidential candidate in the near future?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

As we all know, these two counties have consistently voted Democratic for the last 60 years. However, in 2016 both counties recorded margins closer than just about any other recent election in history (Silver Bow closest since 1980, Deer Lodge closest since 1956).

This reminds me of what happened in Elliott County, KY: although that county had always voted Democratic from its founding, its margin in 2008, although decisive, was the closest up to that point, which was then followed by a narrow Democratic win in 2012 and a decisive Republican win in 2016.

Thus, I've been wondering: is it safe to say that Silver Bow and Deer Lodge are no longer considered "locks" for Democrats, and that they could be picked off by a Republican presidential candidate in the near future?

One election does not a trend make. Obama cracked 60% easily in both just 5 short years ago, and other than the 2016 Presidential results, there is literally zero evidence these counties are trending Republican to any meaningful extent. However, if the GOP keeps going down a Trumpist route and the Dems go down a suburban-sun belt route, then yes I could see these counties flipping. But they will most likely remain Democratic by varying margins for the foreseeable future.

[AtorBoltox]

As we all know, these two counties have consistently voted Democratic for the last 60 years. However, in 2016 both counties recorded margins closer than just about any other recent election in history (Silver Bow closest since 1980, Deer Lodge closest since 1956).

This reminds me of what happened in Elliott County, KY: although that county had always voted Democratic from its founding, its margin in 2008, although decisive, was the closest up to that point, which was then followed by a narrow Democratic win in 2012 and a decisive Republican win in 2016.

Thus, I've been wondering: is it safe to say that Silver Bow and Deer Lodge are no longer considered "locks" for Democrats, and that they could be picked off by a Republican presidential candidate in the near future?

One election does not a trend make. Obama cracked 60% easily in both just 5 short years ago, and other than the 2016 Presidential results, there is literally zero evidence these counties are trending Republican to any meaningful extent.

So if you discount the main evidence that they're trending republican, there's no evidence?

[PragmaticPopulist]

These counties are yellow-dog D counties, so that's probably why they've stayed in the D column for so long. Hillary Clinton was a bad cultural fit for them, so 2016 might have been an aberration, though you never know. Steve Bullock nearly broke 70% in both of them.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

As we all know, these two counties have consistently voted Democratic for the last 60 years. However, in 2016 both counties recorded margins closer than just about any other recent election in history (Silver Bow closest since 1980, Deer Lodge closest since 1956).

This reminds me of what happened in Elliott County, KY: although that county had always voted Democratic from its founding, its margin in 2008, although decisive, was the closest up to that point, which was then followed by a narrow Democratic win in 2012 and a decisive Republican win in 2016.

Thus, I've been wondering: is it safe to say that Silver Bow and Deer Lodge are no longer considered "locks" for Democrats, and that they could be picked off by a Republican presidential candidate in the near future?

One election does not a trend make. Obama cracked 60% easily in both just 5 short years ago, and other than the 2016 Presidential results, there is literally zero evidence these counties are trending Republican to any meaningful extent.

So if you discount the main evidence that they're trending republican, there's no evidence?

One. Election. Does. Not. A. Trend. Make.

[RINO Tom]

As we all know, these two counties have consistently voted Democratic for the last 60 years. However, in 2016 both counties recorded margins closer than just about any other recent election in history (Silver Bow closest since 1980, Deer Lodge closest since 1956).

This reminds me of what happened in Elliott County, KY: although that county had always voted Democratic from its founding, its margin in 2008, although decisive, was the closest up to that point, which was then followed by a narrow Democratic win in 2012 and a decisive Republican win in 2016.

Thus, I've been wondering: is it safe to say that Silver Bow and Deer Lodge are no longer considered "locks" for Democrats, and that they could be picked off by a Republican presidential candidate in the near future?

One election does not a trend make. Obama cracked 60% easily in both just 5 short years ago, and other than the 2016 Presidential results, there is literally zero evidence these counties are trending Republican to any meaningful extent.

So if you discount the main evidence that they're trending republican, there's no evidence?

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