ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead
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  ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead
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Author Topic: ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead  (Read 2181 times)
krazen1211
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« on: October 24, 2017, 11:01:26 AM »

Link

Campbell 44
Heitkamp 41

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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2017, 11:22:42 AM »

Never heard of this pollster and theres no link to see the actual results.

Anyway, not bad for Hietkamp. She'll win in a close race.

Edit: I cant find anything on this pollster...like not even a website.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2017, 11:40:49 AM »

Ok a few things:
1. The 'article' linked to reads like it was written by a second-grader. Are you sure this is a legitimate poll?
2. No cross tabs. Obviously massive red flags.
3. Unknown pollster.

The above strongly indicate that this poll is, for lack of a better word, junk.

HOWEVER, there are two conclusions one can draw if and only if this poll is legitimate:
1. Heitkamp is in a really bad spot - her name recognition is high and her favorables are great, but a generic R is leading her anyway. This would indicate to me that the increasingly polarized American electorate simply makes it impossible for even the best Democrat to hold this seat. Sort of similar to what I expect to happen to Hogan in Maryland.
2. Heitkamp, nonetheless, has a small opening - the large number of undecided voters in this poll means that, even with the generic R lead (I'm presuming that is more or less what Campbell is at this point), she has a narrow path by appealing to right-leaning swing voters who approve of her but aren't willing to tell a pollster they will vote for her. She has a long way to make up however, given that she almost certainly has stronger name ID and approvals than Campbell at this stage.

Basically this is a big deal is legit, but almost certainly is not.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2017, 11:43:47 AM »

An internal conducted by an unknown pollster that has literally never polled before? Right in the trash.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2017, 11:48:49 AM »

An internal conducted by an unknown pollster that has literally never polled before? Right in the trash.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2017, 12:01:14 PM »

Or Democrats would be in for a rude awakening on Election Day when people like McCaskill and Donnelly survive and they gain AZ and NV but ND is too red for a Democrat like Heitkamp to win.

What do you think about WV?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2017, 01:04:16 PM »

Or Democrats would be in for a rude awakening on Election Day when people like McCaskill and Donnelly survive and they gain AZ and NV but ND is too red for a Democrat like Heitkamp to win.

There's no way they'll lose in ND if they're winning in IN, MO, MT, OH, WV, etc. Quite frankly, I doubt Heitkamp would have lost even in a Clinton midterm (though it would have been Tilt/Lean D instead of Likely D - maybe Tossup in a big wave), she's an incredibly talented and charismatic candidate. States like MT and ND behave differently in down-ballot races, and there's a reason why Republicans are struggling to win Senate races in those states.

I actually thought Heitkamp and Donnelly were prime candidates for defection under Hillary.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2017, 01:19:10 PM »

Heitkamp and Donnelly (and Manchin, for that matter), were never going to switch parties. They're to the right of the Tom Perez crowd, yes, but they're not the democratic Arlen Specter by any means.

While I strongly disagree with the notion that Heitkamp is Safe, I agree with MT Treasurer that she's not going to lose on a night where Claire McCaskill somehow wins.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2017, 01:29:40 PM »

There’s not even a margin of error!
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2017, 01:54:53 PM »

I expect Heitkamp to lose by 3-5%. ND is caught up in emerging right wing populism. She still has a better chance of victory than Sherrod Brown, since ND is less polarized in statewide races.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2017, 08:36:40 PM »

Very believable, I have been calling this likely to lean R all along, and now we have two polls showing Heidi trail, TOO POLARIZED! We need to cut our losses here and in MO (not as much in MO but still) and fight like hell to defend the rest of the seats, and pickup AZ and NV.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2017, 09:08:20 PM »

I predict a Heitkamp margin of 1% myself.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2017, 09:22:17 PM »

Believable
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2017, 04:31:28 AM »

States like MT and ND behave differently in down-ballot races, and there's a reason why Republicans are struggling to win Senate races in those states.


I am beginning to think that this no longer matters. And the Republicans have not struggled to win Senate seats in those states. They nominated a weak candidate in 2012 and there other others who would have won it easily. As for MT, Rehberg ran a terrible campaign.

Also I would note that this is beginning to change. A lot of these states became more D friendly during the Farm Crisis of the 1980's. That is how Dems ended up with both ND Senate seats, both SD Senate seats, both NE seats and Iowa became a D leaning swing state.

If there is one trend that I think is long lasting in the Trump era, it is the undoing of the impact of the farm crisis and the returning of these states to solid GOP form.

And what you said about ND and MT, also use to apply to NE and SD. But that is no longer the case. ND was one of Trump's best states and no one saw it coming. Many figured it would be high 50's. We are in an era of heightened partisanship as well and so it might just be the case that as long as the Republican nominee is semi-competent, that the state just elects them by default and the only thing that Heitkamp's personal touch and superior campaign structure accomplish, is to just keep it close.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2017, 12:29:29 PM »

Something to keep in mind that I hadn't considered before:
Democratic presidential votes the last three election cycles for president have fallen off a cliff. In 2008, Obama won just over 141k votes in North Dakota. By 2012, that number had dropped to around 121k.

In 2016, Hillary won just over 93,000 votes in the state - a measly 27.2% of the overall vote.

In other words, Heitkamp will have to win, at minimum, a quarter of Trump voters, all third party voters, and all Clinton voters.

The midterm electorate will help her presumably, and she did run well ahea of Obama in 2012, indicating that she definitely has the crossover appeal to get it done. I'm definitely doubting that she is a favorite though, barring a (more than possible) bad challenger campaign.
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SamTilden2020
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2017, 12:34:31 PM »

Wait wasn't 1892 ND-Sen Roach vs Casey?  And wasn't that before the 17th amendment? Oh...

Anyway, never heard of them. I'd advise to take this poll with a grain of salt.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2017, 12:40:42 PM »

Very believable, I have been calling this likely to lean R all along, and now we have two polls showing Heidi trail, TOO POLARIZED! We need to cut our losses here and in MO (not as much in MO but still) and fight like hell to defend the rest of the seats, and pickup AZ and NV.

I think ND would be one of the less costly states to compete in, so I'm not sure why Dems would need to cut their losses. Heitkamp raised and spent about 5.4 million in her whole 2012 campaign. Since then, she's raised 6 million and has 3.7 million on hand. I think her campaign should be able to get the resources it needs pretty easily without hurting Dem chances in other places.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2017, 04:58:53 PM »

@NC Yankee: 2014 was a perfect storm for Daines, he obviously would have done a lot worse in 2012 (and lost by 2-5 or so if he had run against Tester). Rehberg didn't run the best campaign, but to lay all the blame on him is a bit lazy.

If polarization is basically Heitkamp's death sentence, then why did the Campbell campaign release an internal poll (from June) showing him trailing Heitkamp by 6? If there is no way a Democrat can win statewide in ND, you wouldn't see such polls. People also forget to mention that Campbell has been carpet bombing the state with ads in the last couple of months, so a 3-point lead in your own poll given those circumstances hardly means that the race is over and Heitkamp is DOA because of polarization or whatever. I'm not even saying that 2018 will be a big D wave year, but taking any of these "red" states (including MO) for granted would be stupid and is part of the reason Republicans got clobbered in 2012.

You didn't read what I said.

I said, "default to the Republican candidate", with Heitkamp keeping it close. That is not the same as "being safe", or "Heitkamp will get Blanched", it just means the hill has become too steep to climb. 

In that case, the current incumbent would be leading because of name recognition and incumbency.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2017, 08:26:02 PM »

You didn't read what I said.

I said, "default to the Republican candidate", with Heitkamp keeping it close. That is not the same as "being safe", or "Heitkamp will get Blanched", it just means the hill has become too steep to climb.  

In that case, the current incumbent would be leading because of name recognition and incumbency.

You really made it sound as if you expect this to be a relatively easy pickup in the end, and in that case I have to disagree with you. Sorry if I misunderstood what you said.

Basically the final result in that scenario, assuming it plays out, would be like 51-47 or so. Which is a very small margin numerically in ND.
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Pericles
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2017, 08:55:57 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2017, 08:59:02 PM by Pericles »

https://www.scribd.com/document/362482919/Campbell-Poll

An interesting fact to note is that they released a previous poll on June 1 that had Heitkamp winning 43-37. Also of note is that 56% want a Senator who will support President Trump's agenda, though it says that 30% want a Senator who'll oppose it while also saying there is a margin of 16% for support, which is both confusing and sloppy on the poll's part. I'm dubious that this poll is reliable and definitely want more polls of this race, but it could have merit and Heitkamp may be losing.
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erſatz-york
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« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2017, 10:43:40 PM »

Ok a few things:
1. The 'article' linked to reads like it was written by a second-grader. Are you sure this is a legitimate poll?
2. No cross tabs. Obviously massive red flags.
3. Unknown pollster.

The above strongly indicate that this poll is, for lack of a better word, junk.

HOWEVER, there are two conclusions one can draw if and only if this poll is legitimate:
1. Heitkamp is in a really bad spot - her name recognition is high and her favorables are great, but a generic R is leading her anyway. This would indicate to me that the increasingly polarized American electorate simply makes it impossible for even the best Democrat to hold this seat. Sort of similar to what I expect to happen to Hogan in Maryland.
2. Heitkamp, nonetheless, has a small opening - the large number of undecided voters in this poll means that, even with the generic R lead (I'm presuming that is more or less what Campbell is at this point), she has a narrow path by appealing to right-leaning swing voters who approve of her but aren't willing to tell a pollster they will vote for her. She has a long way to make up however, given that she almost certainly has stronger name ID and approvals than Campbell at this stage.

Basically this is a big deal is legit, but almost certainly is not.

1. The article linked to was not written by someone working for the pollster, it was written by someone working for Valley News Live.

2. See above.

3. This was now-Gov. Doug Burgum's pollster during his Gubernatorial campaign last year; they showed him winning the primary. They are not nobodies.
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