ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead (user search)
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  ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead  (Read 2252 times)
erſatz-york
SlippingJimmy
Jr. Member
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Posts: 474


« on: October 29, 2017, 10:43:40 PM »

Ok a few things:
1. The 'article' linked to reads like it was written by a second-grader. Are you sure this is a legitimate poll?
2. No cross tabs. Obviously massive red flags.
3. Unknown pollster.

The above strongly indicate that this poll is, for lack of a better word, junk.

HOWEVER, there are two conclusions one can draw if and only if this poll is legitimate:
1. Heitkamp is in a really bad spot - her name recognition is high and her favorables are great, but a generic R is leading her anyway. This would indicate to me that the increasingly polarized American electorate simply makes it impossible for even the best Democrat to hold this seat. Sort of similar to what I expect to happen to Hogan in Maryland.
2. Heitkamp, nonetheless, has a small opening - the large number of undecided voters in this poll means that, even with the generic R lead (I'm presuming that is more or less what Campbell is at this point), she has a narrow path by appealing to right-leaning swing voters who approve of her but aren't willing to tell a pollster they will vote for her. She has a long way to make up however, given that she almost certainly has stronger name ID and approvals than Campbell at this stage.

Basically this is a big deal is legit, but almost certainly is not.

1. The article linked to was not written by someone working for the pollster, it was written by someone working for Valley News Live.

2. See above.

3. This was now-Gov. Doug Burgum's pollster during his Gubernatorial campaign last year; they showed him winning the primary. They are not nobodies.
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