ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead

[UncleSam]

Ok a few things:
1. The 'article' linked to reads like it was written by a second-grader. Are you sure this is a legitimate poll?
2. No cross tabs. Obviously massive red flags.
3. Unknown pollster.

The above strongly indicate that this poll is, for lack of a better word, junk.

HOWEVER, there are two conclusions one can draw if and only if this poll is legitimate:
1. Heitkamp is in a really bad spot - her name recognition is high and her favorables are great, but a generic R is leading her anyway. This would indicate to me that the increasingly polarized American electorate simply makes it impossible for even the best Democrat to hold this seat. Sort of similar to what I expect to happen to Hogan in Maryland.
2. Heitkamp, nonetheless, has a small opening - the large number of undecided voters in this poll means that, even with the generic R lead (I'm presuming that is more or less what Campbell is at this point), she has a narrow path by appealing to right-leaning swing voters who approve of her but aren't willing to tell a pollster they will vote for her. She has a long way to make up however, given that she almost certainly has stronger name ID and approvals than Campbell at this stage.

Basically this is a big deal is legit, but almost certainly is not.

[UncleSam]

Something to keep in mind that I hadn't considered before:
Democratic presidential votes the last three election cycles for president have fallen off a cliff. In 2008, Obama won just over 141k votes in North Dakota. By 2012, that number had dropped to around 121k.

In 2016, Hillary won just over 93,000 votes in the state - a measly 27.2% of the overall vote.

In other words, Heitkamp will have to win, at minimum, a quarter of Trump voters, all third party voters, and all Clinton voters.

The midterm electorate will help her presumably, and she did run well ahea of Obama in 2012, indicating that she definitely has the crossover appeal to get it done. I'm definitely doubting that she is a favorite though, barring a (more than possible) bad challenger campaign.