ND-Sen, 1892 polling: Campbell in the lead

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

States like MT and ND behave differently in down-ballot races, and there's a reason why Republicans are struggling to win Senate races in those states.

I am beginning to think that this no longer matters. And the Republicans have not struggled to win Senate seats in those states. They nominated a weak candidate in 2012 and there other others who would have won it easily. As for MT, Rehberg ran a terrible campaign.

Also I would note that this is beginning to change. A lot of these states became more D friendly during the Farm Crisis of the 1980's. That is how Dems ended up with both ND Senate seats, both SD Senate seats, both NE seats and Iowa became a D leaning swing state.

If there is one trend that I think is long lasting in the Trump era, it is the undoing of the impact of the farm crisis and the returning of these states to solid GOP form.

And what you said about ND and MT, also use to apply to NE and SD. But that is no longer the case. ND was one of Trump's best states and no one saw it coming. Many figured it would be high 50's. We are in an era of heightened partisanship as well and so it might just be the case that as long as the Republican nominee is semi-competent, that the state just elects them by default and the only thing that Heitkamp's personal touch and superior campaign structure accomplish, is to just keep it close.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

@NC Yankee: 2014 was a perfect storm for Daines, he obviously would have done a lot worse in 2012 (and lost by 2-5 or so if he had run against Tester). Rehberg didn't run the best campaign, but to lay all the blame on him is a bit lazy.

If polarization is basically Heitkamp's death sentence, then why did the Campbell campaign release an internal poll (from June) showing him trailing Heitkamp by 6? If there is no way a Democrat can win statewide in ND, you wouldn't see such polls. People also forget to mention that Campbell has been carpet bombing the state with ads in the last couple of months, so a 3-point lead in your own poll given those circumstances hardly means that the race is over and Heitkamp is DOA because of polarization or whatever. I'm not even saying that 2018 will be a big D wave year, but taking any of these "red" states (including MO) for granted would be stupid and is part of the reason Republicans got clobbered in 2012.

You didn't read what I said.

I said, "default to the Republican candidate", with Heitkamp keeping it close. That is not the same as "being safe", or "Heitkamp will get Blanched", it just means the hill has become too steep to climb. 

In that case, the current incumbent would be leading because of name recognition and incumbency.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You didn't read what I said.

I said, "default to the Republican candidate", with Heitkamp keeping it close. That is not the same as "being safe", or "Heitkamp will get Blanched", it just means the hill has become too steep to climb.  

In that case, the current incumbent would be leading because of name recognition and incumbency.

You really made it sound as if you expect this to be a relatively easy pickup in the end, and in that case I have to disagree with you. Sorry if I misunderstood what you said.

Basically the final result in that scenario, assuming it plays out, would be like 51-47 or so. Which is a very small margin numerically in ND.